Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. ACM, 2005.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. 7, July 2005. “A

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Knowledgeline: Building e-Discovery Teams:: by Tom Baldwin

Knowledgeline

Knowledgeline Friday, August 12, 2005 Building e-Discovery Teams There has been tremendous coverage, almost ad nauseam, about e-discovery issues lately. Forward looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

2005 40

Knowledgeline: Aderant (formerly CMS) enters the CRM space:: by Tom Baldwin

Knowledgeline

Knowledgeline Wednesday, February 09, 2005 Aderant (formerly CMS) enters the CRM space In something that was probably long overdue, Aderant recently announced its intention to enter the FrontOffice space with its first foray being CRM. If you get a chance you may want to visit this construction estimating software site, its pretty awesome too!

2005 40

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. Estimating and Reporting Agile Projects using the SRDR and Earned Value Management , PSM Users Group 2017, 12-16 June 2017, Crystal City, VA. Estimating and Reporting Physical Percent Complete on Agile Projects , DHS Cost Analysis Stakeholder Working Group, June 26, 2017. How Should We Estimate Agile Software Development Projects and What Data Do We Need ?, Basis of Estimate Process.

2008 45

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. From his article in an IEEE magazine often quoted by No Estimates advocates. . In particular, he wonders whether estimates for work remaining are better (obviously, uncertainty’s not an issue for work already done).

2007 32

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Cooper, Stephen Grey, Geoffrey Raymond, and Phil Walker, John Wiley & Sons, 2005. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

2003 38

Decision Making On Software Development Projects

Herding Cats

Reducible risk requires estimating the probability distribution of the occurrence. Irreducible risk requires estimating the statistical distribution of the naturally occurring processes. Risk management requires estimating. Adult management of project requires estimating. Not Estimating means not managing as an Adult. Oberkampf, in Proceedings from the Advanced Simulation & Computing Workshop , Albuquerque, NM, USA, 2005.

2005 34

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Cost and schedule growth for federal programs is created by unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, all contributing to program technical and programmatic shortfalls. RFETS was a nuclear bomb manufacturing plant, built in 1951, operating until 1989, and closed in 2005.

2019 37

Book of the Month

Herding Cats

Of course, all three of these are operating in the presence of uncertainty and therefore require estimates to be made. Estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that create risk to the delivered Value need to be handled. Gregory, Operations Research , 23, 2005. [2] NoEstimates EstimatingThe standard way of thinking about decisions is backward, says Ralph Keeney: People focus first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values.

2009 32

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 33

What's Missing from the Agile Software Development Paradigm

Herding Cats

Agile Alliance [6] "Technical Measurement Guide, Gary Roedler and Cheryl Jones, INCOSE-TP-2003-020-01 , December 2005. [7] Agile Capabilities Decision Making Deliverables Based Planning(r) Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Principles Product Management Project Management Requirements Scheduling Strategy Systems TheoryAgile software development is framed by a manifesto , a set of 12 principles, several methods.

2009 35

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2017 30

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. 2005), “A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems”, Fifteenth Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 10 – 15 July 2005.

2006 30

PERT Guide For Project Managers and Productivity Gurus

nTask

PERT or Project Evaluation and Review Technique is a statistical tool that is used in project management to estimating the minimum time required for a project to complete by analyzing all the tasks required and by calculating the minimum time it would take to complete each task in the project. The time for each task is calculated by estimating three durations: Optimistic, Realistic and Pessimistic. The weighted average is used to calculate the time estimate for each task.

2019 87

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. 2005), “A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty and its Mitigation and Exploitation in Complex Systems”, Fifteenth Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 10 – 15 July 2005.

2006 28

5 Insider Tips and Tricks for Working Well as a Remote Team

Rebel’s Guide to PM

Since 2005, the number of WFH employees had grown by 173%. By 2028, it is estimated that 73% of all departments will have remote workers. This is a guest article by Jane Courtnell of Process Street. January 2020, I was in a minority.

2020 389

Business Model Canvas Explanation for Strategic PM’s

The Strategic Project Manager

It was originally proposed in 2005 by Alexander Osterwalder, who has earlier worked on an ontology for Business Models. Estimates may not be precise, but they need to capture the Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) in order to be able to assess the viability of the Business Model.

2022 82

Sequencing Product Backlog

MPUG

Cohn (2005) describes a “relative weighting” technique for sequencing a product backlog, which is similar to what we describe here. Agile Estimating and Planning.

2020 87

Agile Project Management for Distributed Teams

nTask

And since 2005, each year the remote workforce has increased by 10% which makes it 140% in 2019, which is huge. Story Point is a term often used in Scrum Project Management to estimate accurately what the difficulty of implementing or completing a specific task would be which helps the team be more knowledgeable about what they are up against. Burnout chart is a graphical display of the remaining Estimated Hour vs the Remaining Actual Hour in scrum projects.

2019 81

10 Management Trends to Watch For in 2019

Teamweek

This was an increase of 115% from the year 2005. The American Society for Training and Development estimates that by 2020 about half (46%) of the workers in the United States will be millennials. While there are plenty of books, manuals, and websites out there claiming they can teach individuals how to be a good manager, there really is no perfect way to do it.

2019 69

Thinking By Sprinting: What Cognitive Science Tells Us About Why Scrum Works

Scrum.org

Although our brain is a marvel of evolution, it has not evolved to excel at the kind of knowledge work (Davenport, 2005) that we actually do most of the time. This will affect all estimates and predictions. This will affect all estimates and predictions.

2020 64

A Seriously Challenged Project

The Tao of Project Management

As early as 2005 the Scottish Parliament shelved the project when new cost estimates revealed an increase of 30% to the original £375m budget and although the project did get going again, those early cost increases were a warning sign of what was to come.

2015 33

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Kadane, and Anthony O’Hagan, Carnegie Mellon University, Statistics & Data Science, January 5, 2005. Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Elsevier, 2005. 15 July 2005. 9, September 2005, pp. Zhao, 2005 AACE International Transactions.

Risk 35

The Bad Apple Syndrome in Process Improvement

Herding Cats

ISO/IEC 17025:2005 (4.11.2) ‒ The procedure for corrective action shall start with an investigation to determine the root cause(s) of the problem. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. Are Estimates Really The Smell of Dysfunction? When process improvement starts with the solution, it's common to anchor this improvement on the Bad Apple syndrome.

2017 36

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Kadane, and Anthony O’Hagan, Carnegie Mellon University, Statistics & Data Science, January 5, 2005. Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Elsevier, 2005. 15 July 2005. 9, September 2005, pp. Zhao, 2005 AACE International Transactions.

2012 33

Invested in Sustainability as a PM? You should be!

EarthPM

In 2005, the company respondedto Costa Rica’s looming water access crisis by investing in water-saving measures. estimates it earns $3 for every $1 invested in environmental initiatives. Many executives embrace the conventional wisdom that mainstream investors care little about an organization’s performance on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics.

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Measures of Performance - are performance measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. Toward a NASA Specific Project Management Framework," Dov Dvir, Dragan Milosevic, Jerry Mulenburg, et al, Engineering Management Journal , Dec 2005, 17, 4. Recommended Solution – start with a baseline estimate of the cost, schedule, and technical performance.

2017 34

Leadership Lessons

Herding Cats

I wrote a paper in 2005 for our Program Management Office Project Managers about Shackleton's ventures from the book Shackleton's Way. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. There is an article in the current edition of The Newyorker about a solitary journey across Antarctica, by Henry Worsley. Here's the extract from that paper.

The Ultimate Guide to Kanban Methodology

Wrike

Anderson is often credited as being the first to implement Kanban in software development in 2005. An estimate of how long it will take. While cards may have deadlines or estimated times to complete, Kanban is viewed as a continuous flow.

2020 36

Is Remote Work Really as Green as It Claims to Be?

Teamweek

A 2017 report by Global Workplace Analytics found that the remote workforce has increased by 115% since 2005. Egencia, Expedia’s business travel company, estimates that 30% of its customers are allowed by their companies to fly in premium cabins.