Herding Cats

JULY 24, 2017

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. 37–48, 2007. . Wallshein, Ph.D.

2007 42

2007 2012 2006 2008 42

Herding Cats

AUGUST 1, 2018

Specific actions to reduce the Episuncertaintiesnaties and Margin to handle the Aleatory uncertainies are part of any good project management process. . Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp.

2012 29

2012 2007 2010 2006 29

Herding Cats

MAY 10, 2019

requires making estimates) ? Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach,” Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering , Vol. Norton, The Systems Engineering Process Office, MITRE Corporation, 6 June 1999. Estimation of Long?Term Making these decisions in the presence Uncertainty ?

Risk Management 38

Risk Management Risk Technical Review 2002 38

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 18, 2017

The requirements documents (in whatever form) are the basis of the process to verify these needed capabilities with customers and internal or external stakeholders and validates these requirement meet to need strategic intent of the work. [2]. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Related articles.

2007 31

2007 Software Engineering Engineering Manufacturing 31

Herding Cats

MAY 11, 2019

requires making estimates) ? Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach,” Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering , Vol. Norton, The Systems Engineering Process Office, MITRE Corporation, 6 June 1999. Estimation of Long?Term Making these decisions in the presence Uncertainty ?

Risk Management 35

Risk Management Risk Technical Review 2002 35

Herding Cats

JULY 7, 2018

When this deciding takes place in the presence of uncertainty, we are not able to connect the causes found in the past with the effects that are possible in the future without estimating these possible connections between cause and effects [1].

2007 30

2007 Estimate Software Developers Software Development 30

Herding Cats

JULY 7, 2018

When this deciding takes place in the presence of uncertainty, we are not able to connect the causes found in the past with the effects that are possible in the future without estimating these possible connections between cause and effects [1].

2007 28

2007 Estimate Software Developers Software Development 28

Herding Cats

MARCH 4, 2017

The uncertainty is always there, it doesn't go away with specific actions in specific domains, or with the use of any tools, processes, or practices. In many cases, once the estimates have been made (at proposal or authorization to proceed), recalibrate and reduction the uncertainty of the initial estimates is not always performed.

2010 28

2010 2007 Estimate Aerospace 28

Herding Cats

JANUARY 22, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Herding Cats

JANUARY 17, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 4, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty. This is due to many reasons.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Estimate 2005 Software Review 28

Scrum.org

FEBRUARY 3, 2020

A while ago, I received an interesting scientific article from Gunther Verheyen titled “Getting Things Done: The Science Behind Stress-Free Productivity” (Heylighen & Vidal, 2007). This will affect all estimates and predictions. Attention is the process of selectively concentrating on one aspect while ignoring other aspects.

2002 195

2002 SCRUM 2007 2003 195

Herding Cats

MARCH 11, 2017

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. There is naturally occurring variability from uncontrolled processes.

2003 46

2003 2014 2015 2011 46

Scrum.org

DECEMBER 17, 2021

The video was about the match between two professional players from South Korea in 2007: ‘Bisu’ and ‘Savior’. From its release in 1998 until 2007 the game had just three major balance updates over almost a decade. In 2007, the Protoss vs Zerg matchup, also known as PvZ was heavily Zerg favourite. Now let’s get back to Scrum.

SCRUM 189

SCRUM 2007 2020 Innovation 189

Herding Cats

JUNE 19, 2017

Of late, Cone of Uncertainty has become the mantra of No Estimates advocates claiming that data is needed BEFORE the Cone is of any use. This fallacy comes from a collection of data that did not follow the needed and planned reduction of uncertainty for the cost estimates of a set of software development projects. .

Technical Review 35

Technical Review Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 35

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 4, 2017

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure. "On spec" is open loop control on value.

2005 37

2005 Performance Measurement Closing Controlling 37

Scrum.org

AUGUST 17, 2020

People often fail to understand this fallacy because they underestimate how much of their behavior and their outcomes are influenced by randomness (Taleb, 2007). When teams estimate work, hearing an initial estimate is likely to “anchor” further estimates. How to reduce this bias. Examples in the workplace. Survival bias.

2015 216

2015 2014 2004 Influencer 216

Scrum.org

JUNE 14, 2019

Some years ago (circa 2007) I found a secret weapon for fighting this sort of behavior. They started to complement metrics like Velocity with Cycle Time and Work in Process (WIP). I'm of course talking about Kanban and Flow. Some of them organically started to look for aging WIP in their Daily Scrums.

Development Team Review 158

Development Team Review SCRUM 2007 Estimate 158

Epicflow Blog

JANUARY 12, 2021

They work closely with portfolio office managers to oversee all processes are in line with the objectives and all tasks are accomplished according to the requirements. . This type of knowledge covers the understanding of the processes, job duties of all employees, rules, market trends that are peculiar for this professional environment. .

PMO 82

PMO 2007 Controlling Construction 82

Herding Cats

MARCH 11, 2018

Take for example the deployment of an ERP system, the installation, and startup of a process control system, the release of a suite of embedded software controllers for a car, aircraft, petrochemical plant. episteme), meaning knowledge of uncertainty due to a lack of knowledge of quantities or processes of the system or the environment.

Software Developers 34

Software Developers Software Development Risk Management Risk 34

Herding Cats

MAY 7, 2019

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. Performance Evaluation of non?Markovian

Estimate 40

Estimate Software Review Software 2012 40

Herding Cats

APRIL 4, 2019

But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management , FT Press, August 12, 2007. Ravindranath Pandian, Auerbach Publications, 2007. I'm not expecting anyone to read all these books. No References?

Risk Management 43

Risk Management Risk 2003 2011 43

Scrum.org

DECEMBER 23, 2021

And in that analogy, refactoring is the process by which that debt is repaid. 2012, Li & Shatnawi, 2007). The researchers also cleverly used issue tracking data to estimate developer workload and where the commit was on a timeline from the conception of the project to the present day. . 2011, Politowski, 2020).

Software Review 177

Software Review Technical Review Underperforming Technical Team 2015 177

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 7, 2016

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. So when you hear we can't estimate you'll know better.

Estimate 64

Estimate 2006 2005 2013 64

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 5, 2018

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success.

Software Review 34

Software Review Technical Review Estimate Software Developers 34

Planio

JULY 22, 2020

Project management is as much about people as it is about processes. To make a complex practice like project management simpler, the most recent version of the PMBOK breaks the core project management processes down into five sections: Initiating : Defining a new project or a new phase of an existing project. Author: Brett Harned.

2020 148

2020 Underperforming Technical Team Technical Review Software Review 148

Herding Cats

APRIL 16, 2019

Management Processes (#MP). While many of the presentations have similar titles, the content is focused on a specific set of processes and practices, while the principles are the same, since they are Immutable. . Management Processes. Project Success Assessment - A checklist for assessing the processes for project success.

Technical Review 42

Technical Review Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Governance 42

Paymo App

DECEMBER 11, 2017

This website aims to simplify the invoice creation process and limit it to 60 seconds so that you save time for your other business-related activities. Simple but comprehensive resource websites like this one can put an end to your entire accounting department’s rush for documents and speed up your payment processes. Envato Elements.

Finance 51

Finance 2007 Construction Innovation 51

The Tao of Project Management

DECEMBER 4, 2015

As early as 2005 the Scottish Parliament shelved the project when new cost estimates revealed an increase of 30% to the original £375m budget and although the project did get going again, those early cost increases were a warning sign of what was to come. Soon after construction started in 2007, delays and cost overruns started to accumulate.

2014 35

2014 2003 2005 2007 35

MPUG

OCTOBER 9, 2019

So individuals and interactions over processes and tools. Now it’s not to say that processes and tools are bad or documentation is bad or putting something in writing, but the idea is that there’s an investment that really will be a little bit different. There are a lot of different ways to approach this.

Agile 40

Agile Technical Review Lean Underperforming Technical Team 40

MPUG

OCTOBER 24, 2019

It doesn’t mean that you won’t be doing wireframes, so it doesn’t mean you won’t be doing process maps. So again, part of that Agile discipline is to help the teams be focused, to help them estimate and learn because in many cases, they’ve never done this work before. I can kind of plan and estimate.

Agile 40

Agile Technical Review Software Review Underperforming Technical Team 40

Resource Guru

JUNE 23, 2023

You can find previous parts in this series here: Part 1: The basics of agency project management Part 2: 5 agency project management methodologies Part 3: Your 9-step agency project management process Part 4: Agency team structure: Building a team for effective growth Part 5: You’re reading it. Schedule view in Resource Guru.

Software Review 52

Software Review Technical Review Software 2021 52