Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. 245, 2008.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. 1, January 2008.

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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Governance. Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS) , Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016. Product & Process Development Kaizen , LPPDE, Denver, Colorado, April 21-23, 2008. Five Easy Pieces: The Essentials of Managing Programmatic Risk , 10th Annual Rocky Mountain Project Management Symposium, Denver Colorado, April 2008. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. Basis of Estimate Process.

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Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Governance (#Governance). Six Business System Rule - defines the assessment of the integrated business systems for Federal procurement and their integrity in providing information to the Government contracting office. . Managing Government Grant Projects at Arizona Public Service - APS management process for Department of Energy grant for algae CO2 capture project. The starting point is understanding what processes make up the discipline of estimating.

2015 37

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The notion (as suggested in the quote) of shifting from accurate (what ever that means) ways of estimating to reliability shipping be a date is not physically possible since the irreducible and reducible uncertainties are always present. All estimates have precision and accuracy. 12, 2008.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. But is can be ANY variance for the program, including confidence in the estimates of future performance - cost, schedule, or technical performance. Olagbemiro, Naval Postgraduate School Dissertation, December 2008.

2017 32

Black Swans

Herding Cats

One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb. Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. The concepts of Taleb and its application to project management is shared by some in the project management community (and now in the No Estimates community). The No Estimates advocates have a similar set of behaviors.).

2002 32

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires we make estimates and act accordingly to the results of these estimates.

2007 32

Black Swans

Herding Cats

One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb. Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. The concepts of Taleb and its application to project management is shared by some in the project management community (and now in the No Estimates community). The No Estimates advocates have a similar set of behaviors.).

2002 28

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. It is not the Estimates that are non-ergodic.

When projects go wrong and it's the worst possible moment

Susanne Madsen

Just consider the most important techniques we use as project managers: we define scope, analyse requirements, plan and estimate work, add contingency, manage risks, track changes and check the quality. At the time of opening in March 2008, only 85% of project deliverables had been completed. Utzon protested but for political reasons the government was pushing for the construction to start.

2018 74

Are Remote Workers the Future of Green Business?

Teamweek

The Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990 required state governments to reduce air pollution. Over the next ten years, government involvement grew even stronger. In 2018, the International Workplace Group estimated that 70% of people worldwide work from home at least part of the week. .

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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 79, 2008. “`,” Stephen Ward and Chris Chapman , International Journal of Project Management , 21, pp. Estimation of Long?Term 3, 2008. Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. ius, KSI Transactions on Knowledge Society, Volume 1, Number 3, 2008. 11 November 2008.

Risk 35

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 79, 2008. “`,” Stephen Ward and Chris Chapman , International Journal of Project Management , 21, pp. Estimation of Long?Term 3, 2008. Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. ius, KSI Transactions on Knowledge Society, Volume 1, Number 3, 2008. 11 November 2008.

Risk 33