Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. 245, 2008.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. 1, January 2008.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

2003 38

Project Risk Management: 10 Surprisingly Brilliant Tactics to Reduce Risk

Workamajig

Every project has some risk of failure. This guide on project risk management will help you understand and manage risks better. If there is one thing you can be certain about in project management, it's this: Every project carries some risk. As you might know, this process of "planning ahead" is called project risk management. In this guide, I'll share X critical tips for acing project risk management. Project risk is more amorphous.

Risk 80

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which will potentially impact the program later, termed Known Unknowns and can be alleviated with good risk management. requires making estimates) ? Effective Risk Management 2 nd Edition , Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister. Risk Management Papers. “A 3, 2008.

Risk 35

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 32

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Product & Process Development Kaizen , LPPDE, Denver, Colorado, April 21-23, 2008. Risk Management. Five Easy Pieces: The Essentials of Managing Programmatic Risk , 10th Annual Rocky Mountain Project Management Symposium, Denver Colorado, April 2008. Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty and Resulting Risk. Handling Risk on High Technology Programs. Basis of Estimate Process.

2008 45

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Risk Management (#RM). Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Managing projects in the presence of uncertainty means making decisions about cost, schedule, and technical performance all risk-adjusted , from the uncertainties that create risk. But in fact, risk management is part of the other 4 principles as well. Risk Management .

2015 37

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The risk is created when we have not accounted for this natural variances in our management plan for the project. Dealing with Aleatory (irreducible) uncertainty and the resulting risk requires we have margin. An aleatory risk is expressed as a relation to a value. Papers on Risk Management.

Process Reduces Agility? Only on De Minimis Projects

Herding Cats

VanderLeest GLSEC 2008. "A And of course, each of these domains operates in the presence of reducible and irreducible uncertainty requiring Risk Management processes. When managing any project as Risk Managers as Tim Lister suggested, we need to make estimates in the presence of these uncertainties as well. NoEstimates Agile Estimating RiskA popular toss off aphrase in some agile circles is process reduces agility.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 33

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Real Options and Decision Making for ICT Projects

Herding Cats

Estimation locks down choices early through upfront t decision making, #NoEstimates preserves options. The notion from the #NoEstimates post that estimation locks down choices early and NOT estimating is the solution, and then somehow connects #NoEstimates with Real Options demonstrates the lack of understanding of how Real Options is based on estimating the choices that can be made as options in the presence of uncertainty. 72, 2nd Quarter, 2008, pp.

2008 31

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. Accurate Estimates Without Local Data?”

2007 32

Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

There's another rash of Twitter posters supporting the conjecture that decisions can be made about how to spend other people's money without estimating the impact and outcome of that decision. Theory of Decision under Uncertainty, Itzhak Gilboa, July 2008. Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty Ari Riabacke. NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating

2016 39

Book of the Month

Herding Cats

Of course, all three of these are operating in the presence of uncertainty and therefore require estimates to be made. Estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that create risk to the delivered Value need to be handled. The handling of the risks created by these uncertainties and the residual risk still present after the handling is complete need to be part of the assessment of the alternatives. NoEstimates Estimating

2009 32

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days. Or perhaps as an estimate with two-point ranges. Each work activity in a discrete model will have an estimated duration - a scalar number, usually measured in days.

2018 38

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. The CoU is a build-to paradigm, where measures of the program's performance cumulative to date is used to inform the risk for future performance. But is can be ANY variance for the program, including confidence in the estimates of future performance - cost, schedule, or technical performance. This usually results in a project's actual costs far outrunning the optimistic estimates and creating a large overrun.

2017 32

Part II: A Simplified Approach to Determine IT Project Complexity

PM Times

It will discuss why the Core IT Complexity model is a good approach for most IT organizations and why it is important to determine project complexity as an ongoing and integral part of the Change Management and Risk Management process. It can also indicate potential risks to existing projects.

2021 52

Treat Cause Not The Symptom

Herding Cats

1] Apollo Root Cause Analysis: Effective Solutions to Everyday Problems Every Time, 3rd Edition, Dean Gano, Atlas Books, 2008. [2] IT Risk Management. Herding Cats: Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. When gaps in performance, benefits shortfalls, unanticipated cost, schedule, and performance variances, faulty products, or any undesirable outcome, blame the process, not people.

2008 32

The Perfect Storm for The Project Economy

Leading Answers

Eric Ries documented his lean startup methodology in 2008 as a way for organizations to adapt and experiment with new ideas and perform market tests. With all the planning, estimation, risk management, and earned value tracking, there was a fair amount of math and admin involved.

2020 78

When projects go wrong and it's the worst possible moment

Susanne Madsen

​A project is a unique undertaking that’s full of risk and uncertainty, because it has never been done before in that exact way. Just consider the most important techniques we use as project managers: we define scope, analyse requirements, plan and estimate work, add contingency, manage risks, track changes and check the quality. At the time of opening in March 2008, only 85% of project deliverables had been completed.

2018 74

The 23 Best Project Management Books For Upgrading Your Career in 2020

Planio

Risk Up Front: Managing Projects in a Complex World. However, while this book covers basics like estimating and planning projects, where it shines is in covering the soft skills of project management. Published date: 2008 (revised edition).

2020 123

Black Swans

Herding Cats

One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb. Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. The concepts of Taleb and its application to project management is shared by some in the project management community (and now in the No Estimates community). The No Estimates advocates have a similar set of behaviors.).

2002 32

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2007 37

Little's Law - Use, Misuse, and Sometimes Simply Wrong Ideas

Herding Cats

Then we have to Estimate what these measures need to be so the third variable of Little's Law can be Calculated. It has been suggested that with Little's Law No Estimates (#NoEstimates) can be applied. So estimates are needed to produce numbers for this demand, rather than measuring the demand. Estimating Average Production INtervals Using Inventory Measurements: Little's Law for Partially Observable Processes," Ardavan Nozari and Ward Whitt, Operations Research , Vol.

2017 32

Black Swans

Herding Cats

One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb. Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. The concepts of Taleb and its application to project management is shared by some in the project management community (and now in the No Estimates community). The No Estimates advocates have a similar set of behaviors.).

2002 28

Scaling Scrum with Nexus and Kanban

Scrum.org

I've been using Kanban as a scaling mechanism on top of Scrum since around 2008 or so and it has been the approach I reach out to most often. In this way, Flow and Kanban help minimize risk and maximize value both at the Scrum Team level as well at scale at the Nexus.

2020 57

Trello vs Asana vs Toggl Plan: What’s the Best Project Management Tool (2020)

Teamweek

Are there any constraints or risks? Asana was founded in 2008 by ex-Google and Facebook engineers. Team members can also add a daily estimate in hours for each task. Trello and Asana are two popular project management tools.

2020 52

Product Discovery Anti-Patterns Leading to Failure

Scrum.org

It could handle the tactical or strategic nature of the suggestion, a possible time-frame, or an estimate of the expected return on investment. Do you remember the origins of the financial crisis from 2008? Bonus-relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) are at risk of not being met.

2021 45