Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which will potentially impact the program later, termed Known Unknowns and can be alleviated with good risk management. Effective Risk Management 2 nd Edition , Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister. Risk Management Papers. “A Risk a Feelings,” George F. 3, 2008.

Risk 35

A Real-World Success Story: New Zealand Government Improves Project Delivery

Planview

Meeting the demands of ever-changing priorities within a government can lead to inconsistent processes, departments with limited visibility into what is being worked on, and no ability to monitor investments. New Zealand Government, like many other government agencies, was tasked with overcoming these obstacles to develop and manage project and investment portfolios to grow the economy to deliver greater prosperity, security, and opportunities for all citizens.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on software development projects. Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk a Feelings,” George F. Hammonds, Risk Analysis 14.5

Risk 33

A Digital Service Canvas for Government and Enterprise

Scrum.org

The original is Alex Osterwalder’s Business Model Canvas , proposed in 2008. Rather than evidence value early and often, they will continue to stage-gate decisions, and to lob the hot potato of accumulated risk onwards in a crashing arc described by that same organizational gravity. If you work in an organization where the incremental and empirical mitigation of risk is the exception rather than the norm, a canvas will cover nothing.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Project Governance. Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS) , Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016. Product & Process Development Kaizen , LPPDE, Denver, Colorado, April 21-23, 2008. Risk Management. Five Easy Pieces: The Essentials of Managing Programmatic Risk , 10th Annual Rocky Mountain Project Management Symposium, Denver Colorado, April 2008.

2008 45

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Most post-mortems of these software disaster projects have shown that their problems would have been avoided or strongly reduced if there had been an explicit early concern with identifying and resolving their high-risk elements. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives.

2007 32

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The risk is created when we have not accounted for this natural variances in our management plan for the project. Dealing with Aleatory (irreducible) uncertainty and the resulting risk requires we have margin. An aleatory risk is expressed as a relation to a value. Epistemic uncertainty can also occur when there is a subjective evaluation of the system - a risk from a rare event or an event with little or no empirical data. One starting point is the value at risk.

The Project Communication Plan

MPUG

Best Practices : It’s better to send information to too many people than too few, suggests Ron Taylor, founder of the Ron Taylor Group and PMI’s 2008 Leader of the Year. The project sponsor prefers to meet in person to review status, issues, and risks.

2021 65

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. Other uncertainties that create risk include: Unrealistic performance expectation with missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Inadequate assessment of risks and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans. Either the team itself, the Project or Program Manager, or on larger programs the Risk Management owner. .

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. Other uncertainties that create risk include: Unrealistic performance expectation with missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Inadequate assessment of risks and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans. Either the team itself, the Project or Program Manager, or on larger programs the Risk Management owner. .

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. Other uncertainties that create risk include: Unrealistic performance expectation with missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Inadequate assessment of risks and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans. Either the team itself, the Project or Program Manager, or on larger programs the Risk Management owner. .

2017 28

Black Swans

Herding Cats

Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. Acquiring Data Retires Risk. One role of the project manager is to reduce or retire risk. This supposes a risk management system of course. One that follows the standard Risk Management process model in use today. One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb.

2002 32

How has project management changed?

Girl's Guide to PM

At least, the 1950’s were when project management emerged as a discipline to help manufacturing, construction and government initiatives deliver more reliably and with greater repeatability. We aren’t managing projects now in the same way that people managed projects years ago.

2020 352

Black Swans

Herding Cats

Here's a book review from 2008, about Black Swans and Fooled By Randomness in the context of managing software development in the presence of uncertainty. Acquiring Data Retires Risk. One role of the project manager is to reduce or retire risk. This supposes a risk management system of course. One that follows the standard Risk Management process model in use today. One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb.

2002 28

When projects go wrong and it's the worst possible moment

Susanne Madsen

​A project is a unique undertaking that’s full of risk and uncertainty, because it has never been done before in that exact way. Just consider the most important techniques we use as project managers: we define scope, analyse requirements, plan and estimate work, add contingency, manage risks, track changes and check the quality. At the time of opening in March 2008, only 85% of project deliverables had been completed.

2018 74

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. The 2008 mortgage crisis for example (although many did an made lots of money), the government didn't.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis,” Intaver Institute, Inc. What the Data Say About IT project Risk in the Public Sector,” Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg, in Commonwealth Governance Handbook, 2012/2013: Democracy, development, and Public Administration, Commonwealth Secretariat, December 2012. 11, November 2008. Monte Carlo Method in risk analysis for investment projects,” Victor Platon and Andreea Constantinescu, Proceedia Economics and Finance, 15 pp.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Sjøberg1, and Magne Jørgensen, IEEE Software , Volume 25, Issues 3, May-June, 2008. Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk,” Barbara Kitchenham and Stephen Linkman, University of Keele, IEEE Software , May / June, 1997, “Software Project Scheduling under Uncertainties,” Intaver Institute Inc. “A Protecting Software Development Projects Against Underestimation,” Eduardo Miranda and Alain Abran, Project Management Journal , Volume 39, Issue 3, Pages 75-85, September, 2008.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU is a build-to paradigm, where measures of the program's performance cumulative to date is used to inform the risk for future performance. Olagbemiro, Naval Postgraduate School Dissertation, December 2008.

2017 32

Without a Root Cause Analysis, No Corrective or Preventive Action is Credible - Part 1

Herding Cats

June Verner, Jennifer Sampson, and Narciso Cerpa, Second International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science, 2008. “A SCRAM: A Method for Assessing Risk of Schedule Compliance,” Adrian Pitman, Angela Tuffley, and Betsy Clark, DMO General Manager Systems, Australian Government, ASWEC 2013. Schedule Compliance Risk Assessment Methodology (SCRAM) Combined Process Reference Model and Process Assessment Model, Released Version 2.0,

2014 39

COTS – Commercial off the Shelf Lifecycle Model

Jez Lister

Since then I have implemented numerous COTS Commercial off the Shelf packages in sectors such as central government, local government, law, housing and higher education. In 2008 I started putting together an outline COTS methodology. COTS Governance – I hope by the time the reader gets to this section they will have understood that stakeholder management, setting expectations and allocation of the right people is essential to the success of the project.

2014 40