Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. Johnson, STC 2010.

Tips and Tricks for Smart Project Planning


Project management tools are helpful in the visualization of the schedule, and in quick calculation of an approximate end date when there are estimates in place. , I promised to share some tips and tricks that can help you make your project planning more efficient.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

In order to make risk-informed decisions, we must estimate the outcomes and the impacts of those outcomes on future activities (cost, schedule, and technical performance of products and services). Without these estimates, there is no risk management. Without these estimates, there can be no risk management. Be an adult, make estimates of the future outcomes of your risk informed decisions. . [1] 1] Control or Economic Law Paperback, Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, 2010. [2]

How Technology Affects Project Management


IDG also estimates that the amount of workers falling into this category could soon be up to 40%. It was not that long ago that a printed out Project Charter would be the start of project approval.

2010 36

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. "A

2012 54

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Applying Deliverables Based Planning ® To Increase Our Probability of Success , PMI Fort Worth, Chapter Meeting, 15 July 2010. CPM-500-B/C/F: Integrating Systems Engineering with Earned Value Management, Lesson 3 CPM-500F: Technical Performance Measures , PMI CPM, June 2010.

2003 59

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Misconceptions of Risk , Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2010. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

2003 49

Back to Basics: What is Microsoft Project?


Organize, estimate, and schedule work, resources, and costs to ensure projects are completed according to plan. Microsoft Project 2010. Microsoft Project Standard 2010: A single-user edition of the software. This is a century longer than Project 2010’s limits.

2010 104

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

Improving Software Development Tracking and Estimation Inside the Cone of Uncertainty,” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Thanida Hongsongkiat, and Barry Boehm, Technical Report USC?CSSE?2012?504,

2012 37

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs.

2007 42

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. Why did the estimates NOT get better?

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days.

2018 49

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value?

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

WS-05: Coming Late to the Party - Getting to GREEN on the Fly - Using the structure of a Greek play - the setting, the protagonist, the imbalance, the balance, and the solution, show how to increase the probability of program success.PMI CPM, Professional Education Program, June 2010. .

2003 45

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016, and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters.

2007 42

Strategic Project Portfolio Management [Book Review]

Girl's Guide to PM

Estimating For Success. Maybe best of all, Moore talks about range-based estimates – a topic I’m very interested in. Moore explains that estimates are biased towards the initial values because people don’t adjust their estimates again after making that initial decision.

2016 290

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. Estimates are neither Ergodic or Non-Ergodic themselves. Estimates are estimates of an ergodic or non-ergodic PROCESS. Let's revisit the quote, Estimates are non-ergodic.

The Myth of Standish Reports - Update Number 2

Herding Cats

1, Jan-Feb 2010, pages 30-36. Three Increasingly Mature Views of Estimate Making in IT Projects. NoEstimates Agile Business Estimating Principles Project ManagementThe Standish Report is raising its head again in the Agile presentations I've seen recently at conferences.

2016 41

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 43

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimates are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Herding Cats: Uncertainty creates Risk, Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty Requires Estimating.

Performance Management Report for Sponsors

Arras People

The latest edition of Project, the magazine from APM quoted the PMI figures that between 2010 and 2020 the number of new project management roles estimated to be created globally will be 15.7 The group was sipping coffee and chatting until I interrupted them.

2016 217

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2007 36

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2017 40

Online Collaboration Software


In fact, by 2012 this market is estimated to be $42.57 What happened to the best collaboration software of 2010? The best free collaboration software solutions of 2010. Online collaboration software is gaining wide acceptance.

What is Little Data? And Why Do Project Managers Need It?


Here’s a straightforward way to use little data to improve your schedules: record task estimates and actuals. The data should include who did the estimation and the work. Using a pivot table in Excel, you can see which estimators typically underestimate or overestimate.

2017 103

10 Project Management Hacks Every Project Manager Should Know

The Squad Report

A KPMG survey of 100 businesses reported 70% of organizations faced at least one project failure in the year 2010 alone. Keep track of your team’s time By tracking the team’s time, a project manager gets to keep an estimate of time spent by each resource on a given task.

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006.

Risk 45

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006.

Risk 42

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2007 37

Project Management Lessons from Mavenlink CEO Ray Grainger


I learned about project metrics—tracking time, the importance of accurate tracking, and estimation methods. Grainger: We had the first paying customers in January 2010.

2017 118

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

No Credible Decision Can Be Made in the Presence of Uncertainty with making Estimates of the Impact of those Decisions. 1] "Problem with Scoring Methods and Ordinal Scales in Risk Management," Douglas Hubbard and Dylan Evans, IBM Journal of Research and Development , May 2010. [2]

2018 53

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

When the firm allows managers and their staffs to make decisions based on principles, it creates the freedom to make an informed judgment, based on evidence or estimates of the outcomes of that decision. . Since all business operates in the presence of uncertanty, estimates are needed to assess the impact of a decision. To NOT Estimate is to willfully Ignore a fundamental principle of business management. Derived from Fire and Rescue Magazine , May 2010.

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015


Between 2010 and 2020, 15.7 Business services (2 million jobs) and Manufacturing (630,000 jobs) supported the greatest number of project management roles in 2010. Business services and healthcare are expected to lead job growth between 2010 and 2020. [11].

2015 61

How to Use nTask for Waterfall Project Management – A Practical Guide for First Timers


A 2010 report by National Research Council emphasized how many of the terminology used to describe the engineering and manufacturing development phases focus on elements of Waterfall Model like preliminary design reviews and critical design reviews. Cost estimation. Easy to estimate. We did an extensive analysis of various factors that influence waterfall project management. This helped us to simplify how nTask project management software can be used for solving such issues.

Invested in Sustainability as a PM? You should be!


The reduction drove down production costs and helped sustain 20% annual growth between 2010 and 2014. estimates it earns $3 for every $1 invested in environmental initiatives.

Bubble Graph: Critical Chain Fever Chart Re-Imagined

Epicflow Blog

Examine “total selected”, “expected”,“remaining”, “burned”, and “approved” project estimates measured in “man-hour” values on the top of the menu window. 2010), “What is TOC?”, Co-authors: Albert Ponsteen & Jan Willem Tromp.

LiquidPlanner: A Microsoft Project Alternative


We built LiquidPlanner based on the belief that teams work best when they organize tasks by priority, make best/worst case estimates, collaborate in one central location, and can rely on a scheduling engine that automatically updates whenever plan items change. Scheduling: Once all the tasks are assigned estimates based on effort and best/worst case scenarios, the LiquidPlanner scheduling engine rolls up all that information and provides predictive finish dates for the entire project.

2010 27