No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. And the same process is applied to the Scrum development processes on those projects. . 3, 2010.

Tips and Tricks for Smart Project Planning


Project management tools are helpful in the visualization of the schedule, and in quick calculation of an approximate end date when there are estimates in place. Involve your team in the planning process.

2010 50

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Aleatory uncertainty, which is the naturally occurring yields variances in the underlying processes. Epistemic uncertainty comes from probabilistic processes that can be addressed with handling responses. In order to make risk-informed decisions, we must estimate the outcomes and the impacts of those outcomes on future activities (cost, schedule, and technical performance of products and services). Without these estimates, there is no risk management.

How Technology Affects Project Management


Most project sponsors would now expect the entire approvals process to be done by email. IDG also estimates that the amount of workers falling into this category could soon be up to 40%. It was not that long ago that a printed out Project Charter would be the start of project approval.

2010 36

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. "A

2012 54

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Managment Processes. Making the Impossible Possible: Applying Heliotropic Abundance for creating Program and Project Management Processes. Applying Deliverables Based Planning ® To Increase Our Probability of Success , PMI Fort Worth, Chapter Meeting, 15 July 2010.

2003 59

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Misconceptions of Risk , Terje Aven, John Wiley & Sons, 2010. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

2003 49

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

Specific actions to reduce the Episuncertaintiesnaties and Margin to handle the Aleatory uncertainies are part of any good project management process. .

2012 37

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates.

2007 42

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The uncertainty is always there, it doesn't go away with specific actions in specific domains, or with the use of any tools, processes, or practices. This knowledge can be used to assess and re-estimate the effort required to complete the project. Why did the estimates NOT get better?

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. April, 2010.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days.

2018 49

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Management Processes (#MP). While many of the presentations have similar titles, the content is focused on a specific set of processes and practices, while the principles are the same, since they are Immutable. . Management Processes.

2003 45

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Take for example the deployment of an ERP system, the installation, and startup of a process control system, the release of a suite of embedded software controllers for a car, aircraft, petrochemical plant. ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016, and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters.

2007 42

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. All business microeconomics decision processes focus on Value, but along with that is the equal focus on the Cost to produce that Value. Non-Ergodic processes don't possess this property.

Strategic Project Portfolio Management [Book Review]

Girl's Guide to PM

It covers the whole lifecycle from finding ideas for projects, through the prioritisation process and planning for the most productive organisation possible. Estimating For Success. Maybe best of all, Moore talks about range-based estimates – a topic I’m very interested in.

2016 290

The Myth of Standish Reports - Update Number 2

Herding Cats

1, Jan-Feb 2010, pages 30-36. So it's time once more to move beyond the worn out red herrings and start to address how to Increase the Probability of Project Success with processes and tools beyond just applying Scrum to the development team.

2016 41

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. This uncertainty can originate from the naturally (randomly) occurring processes of the project (Aleatory Uncertainty). Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimates are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. This uncertainty is modeled as a stochastic process of an inherently random physical model.

Performance Management Report for Sponsors

Arras People

The latest edition of Project, the magazine from APM quoted the PMI figures that between 2010 and 2020 the number of new project management roles estimated to be created globally will be 15.7 The group was sipping coffee and chatting until I interrupted them.

2016 227

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 43

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2007 36

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2017 40

What is Little Data? And Why Do Project Managers Need It?


Here’s a straightforward way to use little data to improve your schedules: record task estimates and actuals. The data should include who did the estimation and the work. Using a pivot table in Excel, you can see which estimators typically underestimate or overestimate.

2017 103

10 Project Management Hacks Every Project Manager Should Know

The Squad Report

A KPMG survey of 100 businesses reported 70% of organizations faced at least one project failure in the year 2010 alone. Also, it’s imperative for good project management to have all its team members be well-informed of each step of the process. They say it’s never too late.

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach,” Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering , Vol. 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term 1, 2010. 29 April 2010. 48, 2010.

Risk 45

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Project Risk Management: A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach,” Prasanta Kumar Dey, Cost Engineering , Vol. 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term 1, 2010. 29 April 2010. 48, 2010.

Risk 42

Project Management Lessons from Mavenlink CEO Ray Grainger


I learned about project metrics—tracking time, the importance of accurate tracking, and estimation methods. In the aerospace and defense industries, that may mean learning the manufacturing process and how it will be impacted by technology projects.

2017 119

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

This method is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Both analytical and laboratory studies are required at this level to see if a technology is viable and ready to proceed further through the development process. Monetizing those choices can be part of that decision-making process.

2018 53

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2007 37

How to Use nTask for Waterfall Project Management – A Practical Guide for First Timers


We have gone an extra mile to illustrate various real life use cases and examples where waterfall is implemented, and how one can use nTask to further simplify that process – so on and so forth. It follows a sequential, linear process which is why it is often described as a “linear-sequential life cycle model”. Royce, often but mistakenly called the “father of Waterfall”, is accredited with the first formal description of the process in an article he wrote in 1970.

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

Developing principle-based management processes doesn’t start with individuals. When the firm allows managers and their staffs to make decisions based on principles, it creates the freedom to make an informed judgment, based on evidence or estimates of the outcomes of that decision. . Welch's GE Work Out process removed the Bureaucracy to reveal the incompetent. PCI for credit card processing, HIPPA rules for medical applications.

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015


Having a knowledge transfer process in place boosts the chance of project success by over 20%. [6]. Most Popular Agile Tools and Processes: Scrum – 43%. Poor purchasing processes: 23%. 18% use word processing documents. Between 2010 and 2020, 15.7

2015 61

Bubble Graph: Critical Chain Fever Chart Re-Imagined

Epicflow Blog

Every project manager using traditional tools to run their projects looks for ways to deliver them faster and make this process more efficient. Blue and green mean you have no threats in your PM process and everything is performed according to the schedule. 2010), “What is TOC?”,

Webinar Recap: Agile Series Part 1 – Understanding & Incorporating Agile Project Management


So if you’re new to this or perhaps you’ve kind of been using it in a couple of different veins, maybe you’ve been part of a scrum team or you’ve watched it happen around you, or maybe you’ve seen a horrific implementation of an agile process, it isn’t necessarily the methodology, but sometimes you have to think about your culture, the environment, and what you’re trying to do. So individuals and interactions over processes and tools.

LiquidPlanner: A Microsoft Project Alternative


We don’t have to tell you about the pain associated with this process, or about how impossible it is to keep the schedule truly up to date. We built LiquidPlanner based on the belief that teams work best when they organize tasks by priority, make best/worst case estimates, collaborate in one central location, and can rely on a scheduling engine that automatically updates whenever plan items change. Uncertainty is managed using a low and high effort estimate.

2010 27

Webinar Recap: Agile Series Part 2 – Agile Features & Capabilities in MS Project / Project PPM


A lot of times I like to have fun, certainly in doing estimating. There’s always a process. Well, it’s important to have a good process. Tim Runcie: So let’s think through a little bit of kind of that whole process of we’ve talked about high level with some of the tools here. You are a MPUG user for 10 years and you’ve got project 2010, and you can do things lethally, Agiley and Mobily.

2019 40