No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management. NoEstimates Risk

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. .

2003 49

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which will potentially impact the program later, termed Known Unknowns and can be alleviated with good risk management. requires making estimates) ?

Risk 45

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. Johnson, STC 2010.

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on software development projects. 255, April 2010.

Risk 42

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

When Rules of Thumb Can Be as Effective

Wrike

Another heuristic method would be helpful when you have some tasks with unclear and risky estimates. This will help you to adjust your estimates for the project and proactively manage the risks.

2010 36

Tips and Tricks for Smart Project Planning

Wrike

Project management tools are helpful in the visualization of the schedule, and in quick calculation of an approximate end date when there are estimates in place. Move tasks that involve risks closer to the start of your project.

2010 36

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. Uncertainty, creates risk.

2007 42

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Applying Deliverables Based Planning ® To Increase Our Probability of Success , PMI Fort Worth, Chapter Meeting, 15 July 2010. Risk Management. Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty and Resulting Risk.

2003 59

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Risk Management (#RM). Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. But in fact, risk management is part of the other 4 principles as well. Risk Management .

2003 45

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The risk is created when we have not accounted for this natural variances in our management plan for the project.

2003 52

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. "A

2012 54

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. The term “Black Swan event” has been part of the risk management lexicon since its coinage in 2007 by Nassim Taleb in his eponymous book titled The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

2007 42

Back to Basics: What is Microsoft Project?

MPUG

Organize, estimate, and schedule work, resources, and costs to ensure projects are completed according to plan. Allows team members to access timesheets, manage tasks, add issues and risks, and collaborate from anywhere. Microsoft Project 2010.

2010 87

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

One chapter on the Principles of Risk Management and the second chapter on the Practices of Risk Management. Since reducible and irreducible uncertainties create risk, those uncertainties need to be reduced as the project proceeds for the probability of project success to increase.

2012 37

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 43

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 36

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 40

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates.

2007 42

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods.

2010 57

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days.

2010 49

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another. This decision model for software development projects addressed: performance, cost, time, and risk.

2010 53

10 Project Management Hacks Every Project Manager Should Know

The Squad Report

A KPMG survey of 100 businesses reported 70% of organizations faced at least one project failure in the year 2010 alone. Same can be done for work plan templates, risk templates, and budget templates. They say it’s never too late.

2017 52

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015

Wrike

64% of organizations say they frequently conduct risk management. [6]. Managing small, low-risk projects. Managing medium-size, moderate-risk projects. Between 2010 and 2020, 15.7 Business services and healthcare are expected to lead job growth between 2010 and 2020. [11].

2015 58

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2007 37

How to Use nTask for Waterfall Project Management – A Practical Guide for First Timers

nTask

Dr. Royce was attempting to explain how in his experience the Waterfall Model comes attached with risks of failure. . This might also require that the team understands the client’s business model and analyze potential risks involved with the project. Ability to take risks. Cost estimation. Easy to estimate. Supporting high risk projects. We did an extensive analysis of various factors that influence waterfall project management.

2019 65

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

When the firm allows managers and their staffs to make decisions based on principles, it creates the freedom to make an informed judgment, based on evidence or estimates of the outcomes of that decision. . Since all business operates in the presence of uncertanty, estimates are needed to assess the impact of a decision. To NOT Estimate is to willfully Ignore a fundamental principle of business management. Derived from Fire and Rescue Magazine , May 2010.

2010 32

LiquidPlanner: A Microsoft Project Alternative

LiquidPlanner

We built LiquidPlanner based on the belief that teams work best when they organize tasks by priority, make best/worst case estimates, collaborate in one central location, and can rely on a scheduling engine that automatically updates whenever plan items change. Scheduling: Once all the tasks are assigned estimates based on effort and best/worst case scenarios, the LiquidPlanner scheduling engine rolls up all that information and provides predictive finish dates for the entire project.

2010 24