Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management. NoEstimates Risk

No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder. To make matters worse, your company’s project delivery methodology might insist that an estimate gets provided before work has even commenced. It’s unfortunately an all too familiar scenario.

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. December 2010.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. Johnson, STC 2010.

Tips and Tricks for Smart Project Planning

Wrike

Project management tools are helpful in the visualization of the schedule, and in quick calculation of an approximate end date when there are estimates in place. The identification of the critical chain uses a network of tasks with “aggressive but achievable” estimates that is first “resource leveled” against a finite set of resources. Move tasks that involve risks closer to the start of your project.

2010 39

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

2003 38

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete ? ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Risk can be the potential consequence of a specific outcome that affects the system's ability to meet cost, schedule, and/or technical objectives. IT Risk Management.

Simplifying Schedule Risk Analysis Using Microsoft Project Custom Fields – Transcription

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of John Owen’s session, Simplifying Schedule Risk Analysis Using Microsoft Project Custom Fields, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. Well, thank you everybody for joining this webinar, we’re just going to talk about some simple ways of performing Schedule Risk Analysis basically just using Microsoft Project with an add in that we sell called Full Monte. It took 660% of the estimated duration.

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which will potentially impact the program later, termed Known Unknowns and can be alleviated with good risk management. requires making estimates) ? Effective Risk Management 2 nd Edition , Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister. Risk Management Papers. “A 255, April 2010.

Risk 35

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on software development projects. Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. requires making estimates) ? Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk a Feelings,” George F.

2012 33

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 32

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of John Owen’s showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. I’m going to talk about schedule risk analysis. This is the contingency for risk.

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of John Owen’s showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. I’m going to talk about schedule risk analysis. This is the contingency for risk.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Applying Deliverables Based Planning ® To Increase Our Probability of Success , PMI Fort Worth, Chapter Meeting, 15 July 2010. Risk Management. Five Easy Pieces: The Essentials of Managing Programmatic Risk , 10th Annual Rocky Mountain Project Management Symposium, Denver Colorado, April 2008. Managing in the Presence of Uncertainty and Resulting Risk. Handling Risk on High Technology Programs.

2008 45

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The risk is created when we have not accounted for this natural variances in our management plan for the project. Dealing with Aleatory (irreducible) uncertainty and the resulting risk requires we have margin. An aleatory risk is expressed as a relation to a value. Papers on Risk Management.

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Risk Management (#RM). Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Managing projects in the presence of uncertainty means making decisions about cost, schedule, and technical performance all risk-adjusted , from the uncertainties that create risk. But in fact, risk management is part of the other 4 principles as well. Risk Management .

2015 37

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? The beginning of all business critical software development projects is the point in time when performing organizations are least certain about the project, yet it is also the time when top management expects to be delivered project estimates that are very precise.

2012 41

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 33

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

One chapter on the Principles of Risk Management and the second chapter on the Practices of Risk Management. Since reducible and irreducible uncertainties create risk, those uncertainties need to be reduced as the project proceeds for the probability of project success to increase. Improving Software Development Tracking and Estimation Inside the Cone of Uncertainty,” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Thanida Hongsongkiat, and Barry Boehm, Technical Report USC?CSSE?2012?504,

2012 28

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. In many cases, once the estimates have been made (at proposal or authorization to proceed), recalibrate and reduction the uncertainty of the initial estimates is not always performed.

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. Accurate Estimates Without Local Data?”

2007 32

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days. Or perhaps as an estimate with two-point ranges. Each work activity in a discrete model will have an estimated duration - a scalar number, usually measured in days.

2018 38

Back to Basics: What is Microsoft Project?

MPUG

Organize, estimate, and schedule work, resources, and costs to ensure projects are completed according to plan. Project Online Essentials : Designed for team members, Essentials allows for task updates, issue and risk updates, timesheet submission, and online collaboration with Microsoft Teams. Allows team members to access timesheets, manage tasks, add issues and risks, and collaborate from anywhere. Microsoft Project 2010.

2010 80

Top Linux Project Management Software of 2021 for Tech Savvy PMs

nTask

There is a lot of different functionalities being offered by the application like task management , project management, time management , risk management , bug tracking, and much more. Manage tasks, issues, projects, meetings and risk, all in one place.

2021 145

How to Manage Fixed Date Projects

Rebel’s Guide to PM

Work out the end date ignoring the fixed delivery date, even if you do have to crash your analysis time into a shorter period and use estimates with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. LeRoy Ward was first published in 2010. What is a fixed date project?

2020 367

Top 9 Freedcamp Alternatives to Use In 2021 (Free & Paid)

nTask

Freedcamp is a free project management software launched in 2010. With nTask, you can manage your projects, tasks, issues, meetings, risks and also, time-track the developments in your project. The software offers a multitude of features at an inexpensive price.

2021 78

10 Project Management Hacks Every Project Manager Should Know

The Squad Report

A KPMG survey of 100 businesses reported 70% of organizations faced at least one project failure in the year 2010 alone. Baseline your project schedule & monitor the budget Brett Harned , Digital Project Management consultant explains that creating strategic timelines and managing budget estimates helps the team to get a better more holistic view of the project’s framework. Same can be done for work plan templates, risk templates, and budget templates.

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2017 37

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another. This decision model for software development projects addressed: performance, cost, time, and risk. The risks related to performance, cost, and time must also be considered. Risk assessment can be made with Ordinal value as well. Scoring the severity of each risk factors can be rated on an Ordinal scale.

2018 40

How to Use nTask for Waterfall Project Management – A Practical Guide for First Timers

nTask

Dr. Royce was attempting to explain how in his experience the Waterfall Model comes attached with risks of failure. . This might also require that the team understands the client’s business model and analyze potential risks involved with the project. Ability to take risks. Cost estimation. Easy to estimate. Supporting high risk projects. We did an extensive analysis of various factors that influence waterfall project management.

2019 85

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

When the firm allows managers and their staffs to make decisions based on principles, it creates the freedom to make an informed judgment, based on evidence or estimates of the outcomes of that decision. . Since all business operates in the presence of uncertanty, estimates are needed to assess the impact of a decision. To NOT Estimate is to willfully Ignore a fundamental principle of business management. Derived from Fire and Rescue Magazine , May 2010.

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015

Wrike

64% of organizations say they frequently conduct risk management. [6]. Managing small, low-risk projects. Managing medium-size, moderate-risk projects. Between 2010 and 2020, 15.7 Business services (2 million jobs) and Manufacturing (630,000 jobs) supported the greatest number of project management roles in 2010. Business services and healthcare are expected to lead job growth between 2010 and 2020. [11]. Undefined risks/opportunities – 30%.

2015 49

LiquidPlanner: A Microsoft Project Alternative

LiquidPlanner

We built LiquidPlanner based on the belief that teams work best when they organize tasks by priority, make best/worst case estimates, collaborate in one central location, and can rely on a scheduling engine that automatically updates whenever plan items change. Scheduling: Once all the tasks are assigned estimates based on effort and best/worst case scenarios, the LiquidPlanner scheduling engine rolls up all that information and provides predictive finish dates for the entire project.

Webinar Recap: Agile Series Part 1 – Understanding & Incorporating Agile Project Management

MPUG

There is a lot, even if you look at PMI or you look at Prince2, there’s a lot that you go through in defining requirements, creating risk plans. And while this isn’t something you necessarily want to throw out the window, in many cases, what you’ll find is that the self leveling that happens, whether it’s issues or risks, these things happen, the teams need to be focused on making sure they’re producing those values.

Webinar Recap: Agile Series Part 2 – Agile Features & Capabilities in MS Project / Project PPM

MPUG

A lot of times I like to have fun, certainly in doing estimating. You are a MPUG user for 10 years and you’ve got project 2010, and you can do things lethally, Agiley and Mobily. Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Tim Runcie’s Agile Series Part 2 webinar being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members.

2019 40