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When riding a single track like this one behind our neighborhood, I came to understand the tradeoffs between stability and control. In our conference sessions, we speak about how the Wright Brothers learned this concept as well. |
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| Here's another trail being ridden by our son at Nationals in 2013. who's massively better than I will ever be. But same tradeoffs between stability and control is needed to be ranked 33rd Cross Country and 23rd Short Track at DII in the nation, with the team taking 2nd overall. |
In both cases, nationally ranked and rank amateur, control of bike is the key. Stability is a relative term, depending on speed, terrain, skill, risk-taking tolerance, experience, technical equipment, and other intangible factors.
We speak at conferences where program planning and controls are the topics. Starting 2 years ago, our foundation for speaking about managing in the presence of uncertanty is the Wright Brothers.
Most earlier experimenters in powered flight focused only on one or two of the primary problems - (a) A set of lifting surfaces, or wings, (b) A method of balancing and controlling the aircraft, and (c) A means of propulsion - and did not consider the final design from the outset. The Wrights recognized that each of these areas had to be successfully addressed to build a working airplane. They believed that the aerodynamic and propulsion problems would be comparatively easier to solve, so they first concentrated on how to maintain balance and control.
Many believed that air currents were too swift and unpredictable for human reflexes. Therefore, an aircraft had to be inherently stable for the pilot to be able to maintain control. Because of the Wrights’ extensive experience with the bicycle—a highly unstable but controllable machine (just like the mountain bike)—they saw no reason why an airplane could not be unstable yet controllable as well.
The notion of Control is misused in software development projects. Misused and misunderstood. Control inside the upper and lower control bounds is a critical success factor. What are those upper and lower control bounds? Good question. They have to be estimated in the start. They become cleared as the project progresses. They have to be adjusted as new information emerges.
In projects, the question for Stability is a false quest. All project work is uncertain. Stability is short lived. New inputs arrive every day. Just like new inputs arrive while riding down the flat trail for cruising around the open space in the neighborhood or more so on the bumpy high-speed trail of collegiate racing.
Even if the trail is defined in from of you, the small disruptions and many times big distributions input your control of the bike. The key is Control over Stability. Staying in control will get you across the finish line, down the trail, and home again to ride another day.
Skills of Maintaining Control on the Mountain Bike and the Project
Starting from our house there is a nice loop Left Hand Trail, that is easy, has a few climbs, and a few descents, uncrowded, and provides a nice view of the small hills before the real mountains start. Combine that with the Eagle Trail, Sage Trail, and North Rim Trail and it's a nice 7-mile loop
- Short term feedback - what's happening right in front of me? What do I need to do NOW to maintain stability, to survive for the next 10 feet on the trail
- On projects, short term feedback is for the next day or week.
- What's coming due?
- A Plan of the Week or even a Plan of the Day is very useful.
- Long term feedback - I see things coming on the trail. A big drop. A huge climb. What am I going to do to prepare for both? Do I have a plan of action to get through these?
- On projects, I need to see this coming before I am Overcome By Events (OBE). The term OBE is used often in our domain. It says they didn't see it coming. They didn't have a plan to respond to emerging events.
- The naive term in agile of respond to emerging requirements means you have to have a plan to meet that emerging requirement. If you don't, just like on the bike, you're going to end up on the side to the trail, landing on a cactus or worse a snake where we live.
- Corrective actions - what corrective actions am I capable of performing? On the bike, I must know my limits. Can I power through the steep climb? Maybe if it's short. No likely if it's 1/2 mile at 18% grade.
- On projects knowing the limits of the team is a critical success factor.
- Who can work the problem with the most rapid response? Who's got skills and experience needed to power through till we get back in control
- Alternative choices - as the trial unfolds in front of me, choices present themselves. Some are optional, some are mandatory alternatives. Other riders coming up the trail have to be addressed. If they're coming up hill and I'm going down hill, they have the right-of-way. I can easily start again going down hill. Stopping and starting again going up hill is a real pain. Obstacles on the trail have to be dealt with. In the spring branches hang in the trail from the trees and bushes. Many have sharp leaves or thorns, riding through them is painful.
- On project having alternatives is also mandatory.
- Nothing ever goes right as planned. Having an alternative ready to go, means when trouble arrives, there is no delay in making a choice to take another path.
- Estimate what's right in front of you - the trail is rough, bumpy, rutted, off camber, muddy, thorny, and many times some animal runs across my path - rabbit, prairie dog, a snake. A quick estimate is needed to decide what to do. Keep going, speed up, slow down, stop? All depends on the situation.
- Estimating on projects is part of the closed loop control system.
- Both project controls and business control depend on making estimates in the presence of uncertainty about future outcomes.
- These estimates keep the project Green, just like estimates on the bike keep me rubber side down.
- Estimates of needed for solutions coming up the trail - with short term estimating there are a limited number of choices, bounded by the physical terrain. For longer term choices, there are more options. Do I turn left at the next opportunity, go over the mesa, then back down to rejoin the trail at the parking lot of the hiking trailhead?
- For projects, a longer view of what's coming is needed.
- Points of integration or incorporation need to be in the Plan.
- Alternative Points of Incorporation (APOI) are needed as well.
- Many time these APOI are part of the master plan, since external facilities may be booked, resources become scarce, technology changes.
- A Plan B is needed as part of the normal process
- Estimates of needed resources - food, water, spare equipment are part of the normal riding gear. For really big rides, Bear Spray is common, since we live in Bear Country. Energy resources must be managed. Knowing how fast you can go, when is the next resting spot, next shady spot?
- The resource plan for the project is needed no matter the method used to develop the project.
- What skills, how many of those skills, the availability of those skills?
- Estimates to complete - rarely do we go out without some plan of when we'll be back. This means some estimate of when we'll be back. Telling wife's we're going up to Hygiene and we'll be back in 2 hours is always good protocol.
- On projects knowing something about when you plan to finish is part of managing the project.
- Anyone working on a project that doesn't have some type of deadline is working on a de minimis project - it's too small for anyone to care about when you'll be down.
- Same for the budget
- Same for the needed technical performance.
- A Plan B and even a Plan C - planning in depth is a good idea when riding anywhere. The longer the ride, the steeper the terrain, the higher the exposure, means having more plans to deal with the emerging situations
- Without a plan, you're driving in the dark with the lights off.
- What ever comes up is likely to be a surprise.
- While surprises are nice for birthday parties, surprises 25 miles out from home, with a 25-mile return can turn unpleasant real quick.
- Planning in depth is always a good idea.
- Knowing the Value at Risk defines the magnitude and detail of the plan. If the impact is minimal and can be handled with a few changes, no problem. If the impact is major, having a detailed plan when it occurs is the basis of success
- Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects Tim Lister should never be forgotten
- Knowledge of capacity for work - how big is a big ride? Good question. When we have friends ask hey want to go for a ride, I have to make sure I have the capacity for work. Our neighborhood has many cyclists. A Silver Medalist rider. A semi-pro road rider. A former pro road rider. A semi-pro mountain biker all the way down to casual riders like me and our group. Know what the ride will demand and what I'm capable of doing is a starting point. Along the way reassessing both those informs decisions about routes, pace, and overall strategy to get home in one piece
- On projects, if we don't our capacity for work, we can't make informed estimates if we can get to the end in one piece.
- If we bite off more than we can chew, then we're going to be late and over budget before we start.
- Know our capacity for work comes from past performance.
- But it also means estimating what we can do, knowing that past performance, and the future demands for work.
