No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

How To Be An Estimating Superhero

Girl's Guide to PM

A statistical model for estimating isn’t normally something I’d put in the ‘make my job easy’ box, but I might just have found one that works. What if you want an estimate that is, say, 75% reliable? PERT can’t give you those kinds of estimates. How reliable is this estimate?”.

Trending Sources

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Estimating on Agile Projects

Herding Cats

Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains. . NoEstimates Estimating

Reality of the Value of Estimating

Herding Cats

Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estimate first from Harold van Heeringen. NoEstimates Estimating Governance

Tax Planning for PM Contractors in 2016

Arras People

Getting ahead and planning your tax in 2016 is vital, especially in an environment that is constantly evolving. We’ve taken a look at some of the most important areas of taxation in 2016 and the changes that you need to know about. New dividend taxation rates will come into play at the start of the new financial year, April 6th 2016. The government estimate that this will lead to 95% of people not paying tax on interest gained from these savings.

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Governance and Estimating

Herding Cats

make use of estimates in their decision support processes. To suggest Not Estimating can be the basis of those decision making process is to willfully ignore these principles.

Why We Need Estimates

Herding Cats

The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal.

Agile Estimating Methods and Impact on Project Development Performance Index

Herding Cats

The presentation " Quantifying the Impact of Agile Practices ," Larry MacCherone at the RallyOn 2013 Conference, presents some results on estimating impacts. Teams doing Full Scrum have 250% better Quality than teams doing No Estimating. How to Estimate Software Development.

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Common Ground for a Conversation about Estimating

Herding Cats

Neil Killick posted a good question, what's the common ground for talking about estimates. All estimates have two attributes - accuracy and precision. The values of these two attributes are what those needing the estimates are after. With the knowledge of the two values of these two attributes the decision makers can assess the "value" of the estimate. That request comes from those asking for the estimate. But that dysfunction is not "caused" by the estimate.

Quick Summary of Estimating Advice

Herding Cats

We can't estimate things we've never done before - this is simply not true. If you truley haven't done the work before, you're probabiliy not the right person to be estimating for those wanting to pay you. . Estimates are guesses, because we don't know that the future is - this is a fundamental misunderstanding (either with intent or omission) on how estimates are made. We've never done this before, so how can we possibly estimate how long it will take?

Software Review: ProjectManager.com [2016]

Girl's Guide to PM

You'll also like: Software Review: Project Viewer for Primavera [2016] This article was updated with minor amends on 27 March 2016. Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate.

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How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Before we start, let's look with the notion of estimation.

How Does Probabilistic Estimation Reduce Project Uncertainty?

LiquidPlanner

When you replace fixed-date deterministic scheduling with probabilistic estimations, you’ve got a whole new ball game. Probabilistic estimation is one of the reasons LiquidPlanner is the most realistic project management tool in the world.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

Why Ranged Estimates Are More Effective Than Single Point Estimates

LiquidPlanner

This is why making ranged estimates for your projects is more realistic and reliable than aiming for a singular deadline. We use ranged estimates all the time in daily life. The advantage of making ranged estimates. Ranged vs single-point estimates.

Forecasting versus Estimating - are they Different or are they the Same

Herding Cats

One of the escape clauses of #Noestimates is to re-label Forecasting as NOT Estimating , It is forecasting, based on empirical data. This is in comparison for estimating purpose for a theoretical model that produces data, parametric from empirical or theoretical models that produce data.

Estimate everything?

Musings on Project Management

Mike Cohn on estimating (from his email blasts): "Because I've written a book on estimating, people seem to think I estimate everything on my product backlog. I ask a team to estimate a product backlog item only when having the estimate will lead to actionably different behavior. So, for example, I might ask a team for an estimate on a user story so that I can decide if I want. agile estimate

Improved project billing, planning and price estimates

Paymo App

Accurate price estimates for your clients. You can set up task hourly rates, estimated hours and flat task rates by switching to the advanced view (click on the “Advanced view” icon in the top right corner of the tasks section for the project).

Fred P. Brooks on Estimates

Musings on Project Management

There are dozens of quotes from this book floating about, but here's one worth writing down: "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no. business analysis estimate QuotationsFred Brooks, Jr.'s s "The Mythical Man-month" is still required reading, even if written decades ago. And, as these things go, it has a lot of humor, but also a lot of wit.

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Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.”

Software Review: BusiBI Project Manager 2016 v5.7

Girl's Guide to PM

Name: BusiBI Project Manager 2016. You'll also like: Software Review: Project Viewer for Primavera [2016] This article was updated with minor amends on 27 March 2016. General Information. Vendor: BusiBI. Hosting options: iPad. Cost and plans: £3.99

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Top 13 Project Management Methodologies and Styles

Azendoo

By closely analyzing and estimating the amount of time it should take for each event to be completed, the manager can then easily create realistic timelines and budgets for those aspects of the project. Getting your team organized around a project is often easier said than done.

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Software Review: iMindQ 4.1 Online and Windows [2016]

Girl's Guide to PM

You'll also like: Software Review: Project Viewer for Primavera [2016] This article was updated with minor amends on 27 March 2016. Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate.

2016 22

Estimating from the master

Musings on Project Management

s "The Mythical Man-month" "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers" Bookmark this on Delicious. estimateToday's quote: Here's a quotation that is a favorite of mine drawn from Fred Brooks, Jr.'s

Probability plays a powerful role in project management

Kiron Bondale

A similar situation occurred in the United States with the Republican candidate selection process for the November 2016 elections. But estimates for the duration of our projects are also based on probability.

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Estimating is an Everyday Life and Everyday Projects

Herding Cats

A recent twitter post started out with I predict my train will depart from platform 12 in 10 minutes: degree of predictability correlates with length of time I then asked and what is the evidence on which you base this estimated time of departure? I got back I didn't estimate departure, there is a timetable there, but Trains someone's run late & platform sometimes changes. But in fact - mathematical fact - there was an estimate made. NoEstimates Estimating

Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

This is from one of our presentations from a International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association meeting on the same topic. Figure 1 - Planned Estimates versus Actual Performance from [1]. GAO cost estimating and assessment guide. Parametric Cost Estimating Handbook.

10 Guidelines for Estimating Project Effort – Guest Post by Susanne Madsen

Celoxis

best practices Blog capacity planning PMO PPM Project Management Resource Management celoxis Guest Blog Online project management software project estimation project management best practices project management software sussane madsen web based project management toolMany projects start off on the wrong foot because the effort involved in delivering them has been underestimated.

Software Review: Vizzlo [2016]

Girl's Guide to PM

You'll also like: Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. Online and Windows [2016] Learn why iMindQ mindmapping software could be just the tool for your project team. General Information.

Project Management – Where to Find the Jobs

Arras People

An estimated 60-80% of all jobs are not advertised, but rather filled through the ‘hidden market’. Everyday dozens of new project management jobs are created and filled. Projects of all shapes and sizes need to be managed and in many cases that means hiring in a project professional (hurray!).

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What To Do When Your Team Doesn’t Believe The Project Schedule

Girl's Guide to PM

Given all their experience, they should be able to come up with some realistic estimates for time frames for all the tasks on the plan. And put some contingency time explicitly in the schedule if you are worried that there is a degree of uncertainty in the estimates.

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2017 Project Management Trends To Watch

Girl's Guide to PM

Our software tools are full of data from the risks we log to the estimates we fail to achieve. You can’t hold information in your head about how accurate each individual team member has been in estimating their workload on this project and the last five projects they have worked on.

2017 105

Performance Management Report for Sponsors

Arras People

From British Computer Society Meeting February, 2016 London. The latest edition of Project, the magazine from APM quoted the PMI figures that between 2010 and 2020 the number of new project management roles estimated to be created globally will be 15.7

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The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of this emerging uncertainty requires making estimates of the impacts or outcomes of any decision. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

The Myth of "Discover by Doing"

Herding Cats

There is a popular Agile and No Estimates phrase. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating ManagementIt is by doing the work we discover the work we must do. . This of course ignores the notion of engineering or designing a solution to the needed capabilities of the customer.

The Pseudo Science of No Estimates

Herding Cats

estimates are the smell of dysfunction, so let's not estimate and the dysfunction will disappear." Because "we're just developers who can't even make high level estimates how much it will cost and we work for bonehead managers who can't tell the difference between a good estimate and a bad estimate," doesn't have the same ring. This comes to the discussion of Value at Risk and what are estimates for other than to protect Value at Risk.

Tool Review: Streamtime

The Digital Project Manager

With effortless project planning, one click estimating and invoicing, innovative time tracking, slick scheduling and intelligent reporting, Streamtime gives you complete visibility of your projects all within a beautiful interface. Posted in Articles General Tools.

Progressive elaboration is the only sane approach to planning!

Kiron Bondale

Financial policies or methodology standards might require project teams to provide detailed high confidence detailed cost and schedule estimates for the entirety of a project before funding gets released.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

decisions can be made without estimating ask how any or all of the 5 immutable principles can be met? . NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Project ManagementAll successful projects adhere to these five immutable principles during the lifecycle of the design, development, deployment, and operation. These principles are independent of any project or program domain or context in that domain.

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