Estimating

Zen Project Management

I started thinking about how common it is for people to not be able to provide good estimates. It was ironic, but part of the work with my client that week was explaining the technique of relative estimates using t-shirt sizes and story points. The team I was working with was new to agile and used to the old way of doing absolute estimates, which as we all know are not as accurate because of things like student syndrome or Parkinson's Law.

Everyone estimates!

Musings on Project Management

We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate

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How To Estimate Projects: The Complete Guide To Project Budget & Cost Estimation

The Digital Project Manager

Estimating successfully is all about getting the right amount of funding to enable you to successfully deliver a project. The post How To Estimate Projects: The Complete Guide To Project Budget & Cost Estimation appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. But creating a project budget that works – delivering worthwhile value for a client at a cost that’s still going to make a respectable profit for the agency is a tricky balance, so how do you do it right?

Software Review: Roadmap Planner [2017]

Girl's Guide to PM

Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. General Information. Name: Roadmap Planner. Vendor: KeepSolid Inc. Hosting options: iOS and macOS downloads (no Windows option yet). Cost and plans: Free plan (for one user only) then monthly subscriptions from $4.99 per month and costs go down if you scale with more users and more functionality. There are also discounts in you pay annually.

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How to Package and Price Embedded Analytics

2017 State of Embedded Analytics Report, 93 percent of applications offer some form of embedded analytics capabilities. What’s more, these features contribute 54 percent of the overall value of software products, as estimated by independent. You need to take another step to estimate.

Software Review: Roadmap Planner [2017]

Girl's Guide to PM

Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. General Information. Name: Roadmap Planner. Vendor: KeepSolid Inc. Hosting options: iOS and macOS downloads (no Windows option yet). Cost and plans: Free plan (for one user only) then monthly subscriptions from $4.99 per month and costs go down if you scale with more users and more functionality. There are also discounts in you pay annually.

2017 225

Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects

The Digital Project Manager

Planning Poker is a great freemium agile estimation digital card game that enables a collaborative approach for consensus-driven estimating to guide sprint planning. The post Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. Play around. General Tools

2017 Project Management Trends To Watch

Girl's Guide to PM

This year I’m looking forward into 2017 to highlight some of the project management trends I think it is worth watching out for. Will 2017 be the year we get our first Chartered Project Professionals? Our software tools are full of data from the risks we log to the estimates we fail to achieve. Be brave, find your people and have a wonderful 2017.

2017 242

The brief moment when you think you’ve just produced a perfect estimate

The Digital Project Manager

The post The brief moment when you think you’ve just produced a perfect estimate appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life

2017 155

When the Business Dev team try to do their own estimating

The Digital Project Manager

The post When the Business Dev team try to do their own estimating appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life

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New Study: 2018 State of Embedded Analytics Report

In the 2017 State of Analytics Adoption Report, over. Embedded analytics has become so important that teams estimate it contributes 51 percent of an application’s. 2018 STATE OF. EMBEDDED. ANALYTICS. REPORT The Sixth Annual Review of Embedded.

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. Since all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty, with the resulting risk - estimates are needed to make decisions that impact the future. This, of course, is nonsense, since estimates are about the past, present, and future.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

3 Tips for creating Accurate Project Estimates

Hydra

Despite the complexities involved, it’s essential to do the very best with your project estimates. Here are our 3 tips for creating accurate project estimates. Industry

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. Estimating and the resulting Estimates must be described by their accuracy and precision. Let's Stop Guessing and Start Estimating.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate. How can you assess the strategy without making estimates of the impact of the outcome of the hypothesis?

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

In order to make risk-informed decisions, we must estimate the outcomes and the impacts of those outcomes on future activities (cost, schedule, and technical performance of products and services). Without these estimates, there is no risk management. Without these estimates, there can be no risk management. Be an adult, make estimates of the future outcomes of your risk informed decisions. . [1] Risk is everywhere on projects.

Independent Cost Estimating (ICE)

Herding Cats

Unless you have skin in the game your estimate for the work can't be credible. Let's look at the potential for such an approach in light of the credibility of an estimate. An independent cost estimate (ICE) is a tool to assist in determining the reasonableness or unreasonableness of the bid or proposal being evaluated and is required for all procurements regardless of dollar amount. No one getting paid to estimate likes to present bad news. NoEstimates Estimating

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. 9, 2017. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Estimating Tools and Resources

Herding Cats

Tools and resources for cost and schedule estimating, when you here estimates are hard, we're bad at estimating, estimates are a waste, estimates are misused All those statements are fallacies. iceaaonline.com International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. link] American Society of Professional Estimators. gao.gov/products/GAO-09-3SP GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. link] NASA Cost Estimating Handbook.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Herding Cats: Decisions Without Estimates?

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

4 Basic Project Estimation Techniques

GanttPRO Project Management

It’s hard to estimate a project as you never find exactly the same ones to take examples and guess how much effort, time and budget it can take. What works […]. News GanttPRO Project Management

Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. But the Mean Relative Error of the estimate is with within 25%.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. Without estimates, the units of measure of DONE have no confidence that they will deliver the needed Value or the Cost to achieve that Value is possible before spending all the money and using all the time. Each requires us to make an estimate of the confidence in the elements of the Plan. You can't apply risk management without estimating.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project. The Five Immutable Principles of Project Success layout the aspects of project success that must be managed using estimates. . There was a question asked on Twitter - what do estimates have to do with these Principles ? Controlling that path - in the presence of uncertainty - means making estimates of the possible outcomes of any decision. .

How to Keep Your Projects On-Time and On-Budget

Arras People

companies and government agencies an estimated $145 billion per year! Deltek is the latest member of the Arras People Software Directory , in this article they give a brief overview of how projects can be controlled and how software can help with this. From internal initiatives to major customer endeavors, there’s a universal truth: all projects are susceptible to cost overruns and schedule slippage.

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4 Basic Project Estimation Techniques

GanttPRO Project Management

It’s hard to estimate a project as you never find exactly the same ones to take examples and guess how much effort, time and budget it can take. What works […

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. His early estimate — an analogous estimate — was $125,000 with a range of accuracy between -25 percent to +50 percent. John shared the estimate with the sponsor and said that he would provide a more detailed estimate after completing a work breakdown structure (WBS) with the project team. Ask for estimates from the people doing the work.

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GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Agile Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis SchedulingThese describe the increasing maturity of the project's artifacts. There are not specific to Agile Software Development. But here's how they are connected. Step . Agile. Capture All Activities.

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Without estimating the delivered value to the business for the estimated cost and time to delivery that value, the balance sheet will be wholly uninformed about when the breakeven date for this expenditure.

Project Manager Roles and Responsibilities: What does a PM Really Do?

Project Bliss

Identifying activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. The job title of “project manager” is pretty common these days. But project manager roles and responsibilities can be pretty vague if you’re not already familiar with them. I know this firsthand, just by watching reactions when I tell someone I’m a project manager. When I took my first job as a project manager, my mother asked what I do.

2017 196

3 Tips for Optimising Your Project Plan

Arras People

They’ll pad their estimates by the amount of cuts they think you’re going to make – and you’re back to square one. Today’s post is a guest article from Deltek, they’re part of Arras People’s project management software directory and always have good insights to share when it comes to the technical aspects of project management, in this case project planning. What’s the topic du jour? Optimising, optimising and optimising some more.

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Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

You're NOT going to increase the probability of success in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties the create project risk. Anyone telling you that you can make an informed and credible decision while spending other people's money without making estimates is selling you a pig in a pok e.†. † Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Scrum Master vs Project Manager: What’s the Difference?

Project Bliss

Identify activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. Are you considering a career move? . Perhaps you’re considering Project Management because it uses many skills you already have. But wait. You’ve also heard that teams are going Agile and that Scrum Master might be a good option. Or maybe you’re already a Project Manager, and you’re wondering if a Scrum Master job might be a good move. If you think they’re similar, think again.

2017 183

The true value of change

The Lazy Project Manager

But again, it is a rough estimate that is needed for this exercise. And finally, estimates of disruption ratio percentage (use the 20% provided if you don’t have a true idea of your own organisations percentage) and failure factor ratio percentage but only for the growth projects.

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