Remove 2017 Remove Estimate Remove Process Remove Risk Management

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty, which is the naturally occurring yields variances in the underlying processes. Epistemic uncertainty comes from probabilistic processes that can be addressed with handling responses. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. Without these estimates, there is no risk management.

2017 Project Management Trends To Watch

Girl's Guide to PM

This time last year I reviewed the trends in social and collaborative technology in the project management space: some of my predictions had come to nothing and it was interesting to look backward and hold myself accountable for what I said would happen. This year I’m looking forward into 2017 to highlight some of the project management trends I think it is worth watching out for. The APM has already made huge inroads to gaining Chartered status for Project Managers.

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How to Improve Results With Better Risk Statements

Project Risk Coach

Vague risk statements lead to poor risk response planning. When organizations or project teams fail to respond to significant risks (i.e., Risk management starts with identifying risks and writing clear risk statements. Why do people define risks poorly? Allow me to share some simple tips that can improve your ability to write clear risk statements. Test Your Risk Statements. ” But the smoothies are the cause of the risk.

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Risk Management Plan - What is the Process?

Brad Egeland

An ideal way to ensure this is by having a risk management plan so that you can avoid a data breach, which will ruin your IT supply chain up and down. Risk Management Planning What is the Risk Management Process? First, you must identify the risk before you can move to analyze and establish the proper risk mitigation steps. So, most times you can expect to make lots of lists to keep up with the entire process.

Let’s add a few tools to your risk identification tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Risk identification is our first step towards converting unknown-unknowns to known-unknowns. It is neither possible nor advisable to identify all risks which could impact your project’s objectives – like any other project planning process, too much is as bad as too little. But how do we know that we’ve done enough risk identification? An effective project manager is an inquiring project manager.

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Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. Managing in the presence of uncertainty is standard business practice.

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . Estimates. IT Risk Management.

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. Embedded systems, data processing, image processes, web interfaces, backend databases, networking of collections of devices on the ground and in the air, training systems, logistics systems, maintenance and testing systems.

The Magic 7 Project Portfolio Management Process Steps

Project-Management.pm

Countless business articles have provided you viable information regarding project portfolio management , accompanied by its objective, the roles of the portfolio manager, and the benefits of the project portfolio management as a whole. But how does one exactly execute project portfolio management? Implementing project portfolio management takes more than just assessment, evaluation, and tracking. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #5 – Balance is Key.

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Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. These two points of view are the basis of any credible business management process. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Seven Aspects of Project Risk in 2020

Strategy Execution | PMO Perspectives

Ahead of its January meeting in Davos, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risks Report 2020, based on the input of 750 experts and outlining the biggest risks faced by economies over the next 10 years [1]. And if the WEF didn’t see a risk coming, then what hope do we have?

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. 9, 2017. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. IT Risk Management.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Project Manager Roles and Responsibilities: What does a PM Really Do?

Project Bliss

The job title of “project manager” is pretty common these days. But project manager roles and responsibilities can be pretty vague if you’re not already familiar with them. I know this firsthand, just by watching reactions when I tell someone I’m a project manager. When I took my first job as a project manager, my mother asked what I do. The title of Project Manager was unfamiliar to my mother. What a Project Manager Really Does.

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How to Keep Your Projects On-Time and On-Budget

Arras People

The simple truth is that organisations can avoid these issues by implementing and enhancing their project controls with industry best practices for project management. To put it simply, project controls encompass the people, processes and tools used to plan, manage and mitigate cost and schedule issues and any risk events that may impact a project. companies and government agencies an estimated $145 billion per year!

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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. IT Risk Management.

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

PMP Exam Series - Cost Management Think about it for a minute – what have you done in the last six months to improve your cost management? Consider John, a savvy project manager, who was asked to manage a project to replace a dated network system. When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. John reported the revised estimate of $120,000 with a range of accuracy of -5 percent to +10 percent.

2017 165

Scrum Master vs Project Manager: What’s the Difference?

Project Bliss

Perhaps you’re considering Project Management because it uses many skills you already have. Or maybe you’re already a Project Manager, and you’re wondering if a Scrum Master job might be a good move. Here I’ll explain the difference between a Project Manager and a Scrum Master. Difference between a Project Manager and Scrum Master. Scrum Master vs Project Manager. Project Manager responsibilities. Manage vendors.

2017 183

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. All Management decision should take uncertainty into account. Sometime the implcations of uncertanty are risk in the sense of significant potential unwlecome effects on orgainzation performance. .

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GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk. Agile is a participant in Risk Management, but Agile is NOT Risk Management. . Risk Management has 6 processes, see SEI Continuous Risk Management.

Wilo's Law and Mature Communications Processes

Herding Cats

To make some conjecture that some process will fix the problem - Estimates are the smell of dysfunction and NOT Estimating will fix that dysfunction - is naive at best and willfully ignorant of Root Cause Analysis at worse. Avoid Verbal Orders is a critical process in any critical situation. IT Risk Management. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. A popular quote in the agile community is Wilo's Law.

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Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Hope must be replaced with a risk tolerant plan.

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Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's start with a fundamental principle of all project management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. All risk comes from Uncertainty - reducible uncertainty and irreducible uncertainty. [1] 1] No uncertainty No Risk. . If you're not managing risks You're not managing the project. In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project.

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Are You An Intentional Project Manager?

Project Risk Coach

10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate This is a great time for you to be an intentional project manager. If you are like most project managers today, you are overwhelmed with several projects and you have too little time to get it all done. As you struggle with project estimates, budgets, and risks, you engage with team members that bring their personal and professional issues into your world. The Intentional Project Manager.

2017 154

Risk Management for Agile Software Development Projects

Herding Cats

It is popular to state that Agile IS Risk Management - but that is not correct. Agile software development is a software development process. Risk Management is a process as well. The two - agile and risk management - are well suited for each other. But Agile alone is not Risk Management. First some principles: All risk comes from uncertainty. Here's how Agile and Risk Management are joined. Agile Risk

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Process Reduces Agility? Only on De Minimis Projects

Herding Cats

A popular toss off aphrase in some agile circles is process reduces agility. In this domain today, Agile processes are the basis of engineering those systems. IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW ACQUISITION PROCESS FOR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SYSTEMS. the Secretary of Defense shall develop and implement a new acquisition process for information technology systems. A Model-Based Agile Process for DO-178C Certification David J. 217–231, 2017.

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. This is basic business process improvement.

20 Things For Your Project Management Plan [With 3 Free Templates]

Girl's Guide to PM

Your project management plan is more than just a schedule of work. So what does go in the project management plan? Below you’ll find 20 things that make up a comprehensive project management plan. For example, you might include your approach to status reporting, whether you are going to use Earned Value or not, what software you are going to use to manage the budget and schedule and so on. Risk Management Plan. Risk Log. Quality Management Plan.

2017 204

The true value of change

The Lazy Project Manager

On that basis now is the time for you to ‘do the math’ and work your change portfolio investment out, an example was covered in ‘Challenge 1 – Invest in the right portfolio management’ – so you can reference that if you wish. But again, it is a rough estimate that is needed for this exercise. And then select or identify the Cost/Impact ratio and the growth Value Add ratio – these really should be part of your business case approval process by the way.

2017 174

Are You A Deliberate Project Manager?

Project Risk Coach

10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate This is a great time for you to be a project manager. If you are like most project managers today, you are overwhelmed with several projects and you have too little time to get it all done. As you struggle with project estimates, budgets, and risks, you engage with team members that bring their personal and professional issues into your world. 10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate.

2017 151

Demystifying the PMBOK Process Groups

Wrike

Generally speaking, projects require five process groups — initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and controlling, and closing. These are known as the PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) process groups. An introduction into PMBOK process groups and knowledge areas.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

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Principles, Processes, and Practices of Project Success

Herding Cats

Practices and Process are Fads. A Process is a series of steps and decisions involved in the way work is completed. For project management domain, what are some Principles? Here's my version in the form of questions that when answered form the foundation for the Practices and Processes. With these 5 Principles, there are 5 Processes needed to implement them. There, now we've got Principles, Processes, and Practices all connected. Principles are timeless.

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Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Both uncertainties create the risk to the success of any project endeavor. Reduction or Mitigation of the risks generated by these uncertainties is the role of risk management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. The behavioral aspects of these decisions involve individuals, organizations, processes, procedures, and governance principles. . IT Risk Management.

Your Ultimate Guide To Portfolio Management Tools

Project-Management.pm

Large projects call for complex processes and the need for more management procedures. When you tackle larger and more complex projects, the following management procedures need to be up to date and these are aided by tools, methodologies , and strategies. These challenges and issues are mitigated or contained by the following portfolio management tools that cater to projects to be more productive and capable to deliver it on time. Portfolio Management Tools.

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25 mistakes project managers make

Binfire

The secret to success as a project manager or any other profession is to learn from our mistakes and not repeat common mistakes project managers make; even the experienced ones. Project manager’s role is complicated. Depending on organization’s structure, project management method used by the organization and the team’s experience the role of project manager varies widely from project to project. 25 Common mistakes project managers make.

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