Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management.

How to Improve Results With Better Risk Statements

Project Risk Coach

Vague risk statements lead to poor risk response planning. When organizations or project teams fail to respond to significant risks (i.e., Risk management starts with identifying risks and writing clear risk statements. Why do people define risks poorly? Allow me to share some simple tips that can improve your ability to write clear risk statements. Test Your Risk Statements. ” But the smoothies are the cause of the risk.

2017 177
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2017 Project Management Trends To Watch

Girl's Guide to PM

This time last year I reviewed the trends in social and collaborative technology in the project management space: some of my predictions had come to nothing and it was interesting to look backward and hold myself accountable for what I said would happen. This year I’m looking forward into 2017 to highlight some of the project management trends I think it is worth watching out for. The APM has already made huge inroads to gaining Chartered status for Project Managers.

2017 246

A risk management ode to project managers!

Kiron Bondale

Father’s Day might be a holiday which is much newer than the project management profession itself, but let’s not miss the opportunity to celebrate the many ways in which project managers help their projects succeed through effective risk management. Tagged: Project management terms , Risk management. Project Management Project management terms Risk management

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Risk Management: Known / Unknown Unknowns

Project Health Check

It would become so famous that it would become the title of his autobiography "Known and Unknown: A Memoir", and provides a superb basis to discuss our approach to Project Risk Management: ". Be it what tasks are required to complete the project (design/build/test etc) the staffing requirements for a task based upon a solid estimate, or dependencies between two tasks. Known Unknowns - For us this is our Risk Log. Cost Management Project Planning Risk Management

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Let’s add a few tools to your risk identification tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Risk identification is our first step towards converting unknown-unknowns to known-unknowns. It is neither possible nor advisable to identify all risks which could impact your project’s objectives – like any other project planning process, too much is as bad as too little. But how do we know that we’ve done enough risk identification? An effective project manager is an inquiring project manager.

2017 120

Risk Identification Workshops: An Overview

Project Health Check

Risk Management is one of the well established fundamentals of Project Management. Whatever system or tool you use, the basics of rating risks with some degree of severity and impact is well understood, and then doing something to stop it (because they usually are threats). But I have a challenge for you: look back over your last Project and consider - how many of the issues that occurred along the way were from impacted Risks that were identified on your Risk Log?

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . Estimates. IT Risk Management.

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. The management of SISoS is really no different than the management of any other enterprise class software system. In the #NoEstimates paradigm, the term estimate is redefined to be Forecast and relabeled as NOT Estimating.

Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Risk Management requires making estimates of many things. The uncertainties that create the risk - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), the impacts from the risks, the efficacy of the corrective actions, the residual reducible uncertainty, and any changes in the irreducible uncertainties. Just like risk management, estimating is how adults manage projects.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. These two points of view are the basis of any credible business management process. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate.

Seven Aspects of Project Risk in 2020

Strategy Execution | PMO Perspectives

Ahead of its January meeting in Davos, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risks Report 2020, based on the input of 750 experts and outlining the biggest risks faced by economies over the next 10 years [1]. And if the WEF didn’t see a risk coming, then what hope do we have?

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Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

PMP Exam Series - Cost Management Think about it for a minute – what have you done in the last six months to improve your cost management? Consider John, a savvy project manager, who was asked to manage a project to replace a dated network system. When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. John reported the revised estimate of $120,000 with a range of accuracy of -5 percent to +10 percent.

2017 210

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. 9, 2017. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. IT Risk Management.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Are You An Intentional Project Manager?

Project Risk Coach

10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate This is a great time for you to be an intentional project manager. If you are like most project managers today, you are overwhelmed with several projects and you have too little time to get it all done. As you struggle with project estimates, budgets, and risks, you engage with team members that bring their personal and professional issues into your world. The Intentional Project Manager.

2017 183

How to Keep Your Projects On-Time and On-Budget

Arras People

The simple truth is that organisations can avoid these issues by implementing and enhancing their project controls with industry best practices for project management. To put it simply, project controls encompass the people, processes and tools used to plan, manage and mitigate cost and schedule issues and any risk events that may impact a project. companies and government agencies an estimated $145 billion per year! Project Management Software Deltek project control

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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. IT Risk Management.

In defense of Critical Chain

Kiron Bondale

Many years ago, I worked in an organization where I attempted to introduce CCM as an approach to managing key resource availability challenges as well as shifting leadership focus from individual tasks to milestones. I was unable to convince team members to provide such aggressive estimates given the organization’s prevailing culture. Calling these buffers does not resonate well with senior management as the perception is that these will be consumed carelessly.

Project Manager Roles and Responsibilities: What does a PM Really Do?

Project Bliss

The job title of “project manager” is pretty common these days. But project manager roles and responsibilities can be pretty vague if you’re not already familiar with them. I know this firsthand, just by watching reactions when I tell someone I’m a project manager. When I took my first job as a project manager, my mother asked what I do. The title of Project Manager was unfamiliar to my mother. What a Project Manager Really Does.

2017 196

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. All Management decision should take uncertainty into account. Sometime the implcations of uncertanty are risk in the sense of significant potential unwlecome effects on orgainzation performance. .

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Scrum Master vs Project Manager: What’s the Difference?

Project Bliss

Perhaps you’re considering Project Management because it uses many skills you already have. Or maybe you’re already a Project Manager, and you’re wondering if a Scrum Master job might be a good move. Here I’ll explain the difference between a Project Manager and a Scrum Master. Difference between a Project Manager and Scrum Master. Scrum Master vs Project Manager. Project Manager responsibilities. Manage vendors.

2017 183

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk. Agile is a participant in Risk Management, but Agile is NOT Risk Management. . Risk Management has 6 processes, see SEI Continuous Risk Management.

Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Hope must be replaced with a risk tolerant plan.

2017 37

7 Ethics Tips For Project Managers

Girl's Guide to PM

This article, 7 Ethics Tips For Project Managers , first appeared on Girl's Guide to Project Management. A project manager approached me recently with a problem. It’s probably fairer and less controversial to say that it was “estimated” rather than created totally randomly from scratch. But she was worried that other people were interpreting the estimate as definite fact. Tell your sponsor or your PMO manager that you feel there is a conflict of interest.

2017 277

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's start with a fundamental principle of all project management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. All risk comes from Uncertainty - reducible uncertainty and irreducible uncertainty. [1] 1] No uncertainty No Risk. . If you're not managing risks You're not managing the project. In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

All project work is probabilistic (actually statistical and probabilistic), with reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create reducible and irreducible risks to the success of the project. Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. Each requires us to make an estimate of the confidence in the elements of the Plan. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

20 Things For Your Project Management Plan [With 3 Free Templates]

Girl's Guide to PM

Your project management plan is more than just a schedule of work. So what does go in the project management plan? Below you’ll find 20 things that make up a comprehensive project management plan. For example, you might include your approach to status reporting, whether you are going to use Earned Value or not, what software you are going to use to manage the budget and schedule and so on. Risk Management Plan. Risk Log. Quality Management Plan.

2017 228

Improving portfolio management must be part of an agile transformation

Kiron Bondale

When we think of an agile transformation, improving portfolio management might not be high on the organization’s list of priorities. But what happens if your organization doesn’t have an effective and efficient portfolio management capability? There is a greater likelihood of having too many active projects which increases the risk of resource shortages. Tagged: agile project management , Project Portfolio Management , resource availability.

2017 138

Risk Management Plan - What is the Process?

Brad Egeland

An ideal way to ensure this is by having a risk management plan so that you can avoid a data breach, which will ruin your IT supply chain up and down. Risk Management Planning What is the Risk Management Process? First, you must identify the risk before you can move to analyze and establish the proper risk mitigation steps. To put this into perspective, you will need to follow a set of steps to draw up an adequate risk management plan.

Are You A Deliberate Project Manager?

Project Risk Coach

10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate This is a great time for you to be a project manager. If you are like most project managers today, you are overwhelmed with several projects and you have too little time to get it all done. As you struggle with project estimates, budgets, and risks, you engage with team members that bring their personal and professional issues into your world. 10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate.

2017 163

Risk Management for Agile Software Development Projects

Herding Cats

It is popular to state that Agile IS Risk Management - but that is not correct. Risk Management is a process as well. The two - agile and risk management - are well suited for each other. But Agile alone is not Risk Management. First some principles: All risk comes from uncertainty. Here's how Agile and Risk Management are joined. risk management agile+evm (v10.2) IT Risk Management.

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The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

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An Effective Project Kick-Off Meeting Needs Preparation

Arras People

Failure to prepare for this meeting will put the project at risk right from the start. Ensure all your Project Stakeholders are identified so that you can agree with your team how you can develop a communication plan to manage them throughout the project. Step 3: Develop a project assumptions and risk list. Clearly identify project risks and particularly highlight if the deadline is considered challenging. Project Management kick off meetings

2017 209

The true value of change

The Lazy Project Manager

On that basis now is the time for you to ‘do the math’ and work your change portfolio investment out, an example was covered in ‘Challenge 1 – Invest in the right portfolio management’ – so you can reference that if you wish. But again, it is a rough estimate that is needed for this exercise. We expect more from our project managers – we expect them to inspire, lead teams and be more confident.

2017 174