Everyone estimates!

Musings on Project Management

We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management. NoEstimates Risk

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

How to Improve Results With Better Risk Statements

Project Risk Coach

Vague risk statements lead to poor risk response planning. When organizations or project teams fail to respond to significant risks (i.e., Risk management starts with identifying risks and writing clear risk statements. Why do people define risks poorly? Allow me to share some simple tips that can improve your ability to write clear risk statements. Test Your Risk Statements. ” But the smoothies are the cause of the risk.

2017 177

2017 Project Management Trends To Watch

Girl's Guide to PM

This year I’m looking forward into 2017 to highlight some of the project management trends I think it is worth watching out for. Will 2017 be the year we get our first Chartered Project Professionals? Our software tools are full of data from the risks we log to the estimates we fail to achieve. Not into what template you need to use or whether it’s a ‘ risk log ’ or a ‘risk register’. Be brave, find your people and have a wonderful 2017.

2017 246

How to Package and Price Embedded Analytics

2017 State of Embedded Analytics Report, 93 percent of applications offer some form of embedded analytics capabilities. What’s more, these features contribute 54 percent of the overall value of software products, as estimated by independent. You need to take another step to estimate.

A risk management ode to project managers!

Kiron Bondale

Father’s Day might be a holiday which is much newer than the project management profession itself, but let’s not miss the opportunity to celebrate the many ways in which project managers help their projects succeed through effective risk management. Tagged: Project management terms , Risk management. Project Management Project management terms Risk management

Risk 120

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

Risk Management: Known / Unknown Unknowns

Project Health Check

It would become so famous that it would become the title of his autobiography "Known and Unknown: A Memoir", and provides a superb basis to discuss our approach to Project Risk Management: ". Be it what tasks are required to complete the project (design/build/test etc) the staffing requirements for a task based upon a solid estimate, or dependencies between two tasks. Known Unknowns - For us this is our Risk Log. Cost Management Project Planning Risk Management

Risk 120

Risk Identification Workshops: An Overview

Project Health Check

Risk Management is one of the well established fundamentals of Project Management. Whatever system or tool you use, the basics of rating risks with some degree of severity and impact is well understood, and then doing something to stop it (because they usually are threats). But I have a challenge for you: look back over your last Project and consider - how many of the issues that occurred along the way were from impacted Risks that were identified on your Risk Log?

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. Since all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty, with the resulting risk - estimates are needed to make decisions that impact the future. When past data is used, empirical estimating is the result.

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . Estimates. IT Risk Management.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate. This process is the basis of all risk management. High Risk First - all risk comes from uncertainty.

Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Risk Management requires making estimates of many things. The uncertainties that create the risk - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), the impacts from the risks, the efficacy of the corrective actions, the residual reducible uncertainty, and any changes in the irreducible uncertainties. Just like risk management, estimating is how adults manage projects. NoEstimates Risk

Risk 41

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. 9, 2017. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Seven Aspects of Project Risk in 2020

Strategy Execution | PMO Perspectives

Ahead of its January meeting in Davos, the World Economic Forum published its Global Risks Report 2020, based on the input of 750 experts and outlining the biggest risks faced by economies over the next 10 years [1]. And if the WEF didn’t see a risk coming, then what hope do we have?

2020 80

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Estimatin

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. But the Mean Relative Error of the estimate is with within 25%.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. IT Risk Management.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. All risk comes from Uncertainty - reducible uncertainty and irreducible uncertainty. [1] 1] No uncertainty No Risk. . If you're not managing risks You're not managing the project. In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk. Agile is a participant in Risk Management, but Agile is NOT Risk Management. . Risk Management has 6 processes, see SEI Continuous Risk Management. These describe the increasing maturity of the project's artifacts.

How to Keep Your Projects On-Time and On-Budget

Arras People

To put it simply, project controls encompass the people, processes and tools used to plan, manage and mitigate cost and schedule issues and any risk events that may impact a project. companies and government agencies an estimated $145 billion per year! This comprehensive output assures that the correct scope is being performed, risk mitigation is in place, no steps have been missed and every dollar is tracked.

Budget 246

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

All project work is probabilistic (actually statistical and probabilistic), with reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create reducible and irreducible risks to the success of the project. Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. Each requires us to make an estimate of the confidence in the elements of the Plan. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

In defense of Critical Chain

Kiron Bondale

I was unable to convince team members to provide such aggressive estimates given the organization’s prevailing culture. Given that a fair bit of padding remained in each activity duration estimate, the buffers ended up being bloated and milestone dates were later than would have been previously planned. Estimates are probability distributions – some activities are bound to be late and some will be early.

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. His early estimate — an analogous estimate — was $125,000 with a range of accuracy between -25 percent to +50 percent. John shared the estimate with the sponsor and said that he would provide a more detailed estimate after completing a work breakdown structure (WBS) with the project team. Ask for estimates from the people doing the work.

2017 210

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. Sometime the implcations of uncertanty are risk in the sense of significant potential unwlecome effects on orgainzation performance. . Withoitn these estimates thetre is no Risk Management. NoEstimates Books Estimating Risk

Risk 41

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Risk management is proactive, taking preventative actions rather than taking corrective actions.

2017 37

Project Manager Roles and Responsibilities: What does a PM Really Do?

Project Bliss

Identifying activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. This prevents information from being missed by some and reduces risk. These reports could be regularly scheduled or ad hoc, and could include data on status, risk, or any of the identified project metrics. Managing risk. During planning, you’ll work with the project team to identify potential project risks (check out How to Create a Project Management Risk Matrix ).

2017 196

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Without estimating the delivered value to the business for the estimated cost and time to delivery that value, the balance sheet will be wholly uninformed about when the breakeven date for this expenditure.

Living forward

Musings on Project Management

estimate riskI wrote a few days ago about the hazards of history as a predictor for the future. And, then this shows up from herdingcats: Life can only be understood backwards but you have to live it forward. You can only do that by stepping into uncertainty and by trying, within this uncertainty, to create your own islands. Charles Handy I like the theme about not living in the past, and I.

2017 150

Project history -- valuable?

Musings on Project Management

estimate riskIs keeping project history valuable? Doesn't every project office have at least cost history? Isn't all parametric pricing based on history? Yes, to all of the above! Would there be statistics without history? Ooops, perhaps everyone does not agree: "History can not be explained deterministically and it can not be predicted because it is chaotic. So many forces are at work and their.

2017 150

An Effective Project Kick-Off Meeting Needs Preparation

Arras People

Failure to prepare for this meeting will put the project at risk right from the start. Step 3: Develop a project assumptions and risk list. Clearly identify project risks and particularly highlight if the deadline is considered challenging. Going through this exercise will help you validate whether you have the right resources, identify risks, and determine the appropriate timelines for tasks and milestones.

2017 209

Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Both uncertainties create the risk to the success of any project endeavor. Reduction or Mitigation of the risks generated by these uncertainties is the role of risk management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. You're NOT going to increase the probability of success in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties the create project risk. IT Risk Management.

Risk Management for Agile Software Development Projects

Herding Cats

It is popular to state that Agile IS Risk Management - but that is not correct. Risk Management is a process as well. The two - agile and risk management - are well suited for each other. But Agile alone is not Risk Management. First some principles: All risk comes from uncertainty. Here's how Agile and Risk Management are joined. risk management agile+evm (v10.2) IT Risk Management. Herding Cats: How to Talk About Estimates.

Risk 34

Scrum Master vs Project Manager: What’s the Difference?

Project Bliss

Identify activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. Manage risk. Are you considering a career move? . Perhaps you’re considering Project Management because it uses many skills you already have. But wait. You’ve also heard that teams are going Agile and that Scrum Master might be a good option. Or maybe you’re already a Project Manager, and you’re wondering if a Scrum Master job might be a good move.

2017 183

The true value of change

The Lazy Project Manager

But again, it is a rough estimate that is needed for this exercise. And finally, estimates of disruption ratio percentage (use the 20% provided if you don’t have a true idea of your own organisations percentage) and failure factor ratio percentage but only for the growth projects.

2017 174

Are You An Intentional Project Manager?

Project Risk Coach

As you struggle with project estimates, budgets, and risks, you engage with team members that bring their personal and professional issues into your world. Ineffective Risk Management gives you several reasons why risk management may become ineffective and what we can do to gain better project results through practical risk management. 10 Things Successful Project Managers Never Tolerate This is a great time for you to be an intentional project manager.

2017 183