Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance MeasuresIncreasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

2017 69

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

We can't talk about estimates or estimate, without also talking about the precision and accuracy of the estimate (the noun) after we have performed the estimate (the verb). . Every month there is a Month End reports, both showing cumulative cost to date, cumulative schedule performance, and Physical Percent Complete. What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something.

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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Governance. Integrated Master Plan: The Foundation of Program Success , College of Performance Management, May 21, 2014. The Nine "I's" of Program Success ," College of Performance Management. Forming, Storming, Norming, Performing, and Adjourning. Project Performance Management. Connecting the 5 Principles and 5 Practices of Performance-Based Project Management ® To Increase the Probability of Project Success. Technical Performance Measures.

2008 45

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

I need an estimate because… I need to measure productivity. Although I understand measuring productivity could work well for repeatable activities, it's hard to believe it works well for abstract and, ultimately, non-repeatable tasks like software development. Thus, the common approach to "measure productivity" is to compare the estimates against what, in fact, happened. The audit, surveillance, performance reporting, measurement are at the core of all business processes.

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Performance Management (#PPM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Governance (#Governance). The overarching theme is focused on defining what Done looks like, assessing progress toward Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Those units always start with Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. EVM World 2017.

2015 37

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

No matter the project domain or the technical development method, project success is dependent on knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

2017 35

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

Herding Cats

We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. The origins of this paper came about at a recent JSCC meeting here in Boulder, with local Aerospace contractors, the DCMA (Defense Contract Management Agency) and several government agencies (NRO and NASA). Top Four Sources of Unfavorable Program Performance.

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. Closed Loop Control, has a goal, an action, a measurement, and a corrective action. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

2017 32

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. It is essential that the IMP represent the work that must be performed. If the IMP is being prepared as part of a proposal, then the Request for Proposal (RFP) and RFP attachments will be the primary documents to define the work to be performed. The IMP shows the Accomplishments and the measures of Accomplishments that are essential to get through a design review.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Physical Percent Complete is the only measure of progress to plan. No matter the size of the project.

2017 35

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Were there: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. Key Performance Parameters. Did this Programmatic Architecture define all the player, what they were accountable for, the units of measure to assess the credibility, validity, quality, and compliance of their products with the PEP? Measures of Physical Percent Complete.

Project Status Reporting – 6 Key Considerations

Project Health Check

The entire purpose of the Start-up Phase of a Project is to produce a comprehensive Plan for the Project; consisting of an integrated Performance Measurement Baseline (Time, Cost, Scope) and an associated Project Management Plan to monitor and control it. The Project should then be reporting its status regularly to senior management via a Status Report, as part of its overarching Governance arrangement. Governance Status Reporting

2017 192

Project Start-Up: The Plan for a Plan

Project Health Check

Du ring the Project Start-up and planning phase, projects will execute detailed planning processes to produce a Performance Measurement Baseline of Cost/Schedule/Scope and an associated Project Management Plan. The project schedule will then steer the project through the foggy waters of its lifecycle and eventually help it to find its way to delivery and closedown. But what about the planning phase itself when the schedule doesn't exist yet?

2017 177

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What are the measures of physical percent complete needed to inform the decision makers of progress to plan in order to take corrective or preventive actions to stay on plan? Andersson, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , 54(1), June 2017. [3] There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions.

Do you know, really know….?

Ron Rosenhead

The project manager had no view at all of his performance and no development needs were discussed. He told me that he had not had the usual performance management review nor sat with anyone to produce a personal development plan. Set it up with a questionnaire which asks some key questions including some regarding your performance. – It is pretty common in the retail sector so why not ask your client and include questions about you and your personal performance.

2017 136

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What are the measures of physical percent complete needed to inform the decision makers of progress to plan in order to take corrective or preventive actions to stay on plan? Andersson, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , 54(1), June 2017. [3] There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The Cone is NOT the result of the project's past performance.

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the measure of uncertainty during a project.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The Cone is NOT the result of the project's past performance.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).

2017 30

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

There are several partitions of this information that are common in building the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). Several other government estimating organizations. I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. To the left is a typical SISoS we work.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Cost and schedule growth for software development programs is created by unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, all contributing to program technical and programmatic shortfalls. risks that may prevent the end item from performing as intended or not meeting performance expectations. 55-66, 2017.

2007 32

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

The 2008 mortgage crisis for example (although many did an made lots of money), the government didn't. An important outcome of Macroeconomics is establishing the appropriate interest rates in an economy, where the government sets a base rate and banks work from there. The past performance drives future performance within the parameters of the processes. 285-311, 2017. [7]