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Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.”

2017 37

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

and the connections between each Process are made to form a Closed Loop control systems needed to manage any project. These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance Measures

2017 69
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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Managment Processes. Nine Best Practices of Project Management , Software Program Managers Network (SPMN). Top Habits of Successful Project Managers. Project Governance. Integrated Master Plan: The Foundation of Program Success , College of Performance Management, May 21, 2014. The Nine "I's" of Program Success ," College of Performance Management. Governance.

2008 45

How to Talk About Estimates

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We can't talk about estimates or estimate, without also talking about the precision and accuracy of the estimate (the noun) after we have performed the estimate (the verb). . The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . If I'm risking two weeks of work for the Scrum team of 5 people it's a much different need from the risk of a $10B manned spaceflight program being supported to congress for budget authorization. .

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Management Processes (#MP). Project Performance Management (#PPM). Agile Project Management (#APM). Risk Management (#RM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Governance (#Governance). Earned Value Management (#EVM). Management Processes.

2015 37

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

No matter the project domain or the technical development method, project success is dependent on knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

2017 35

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

I need an estimate because… I need to measure productivity. Although I understand measuring productivity could work well for repeatable activities, it's hard to believe it works well for abstract and, ultimately, non-repeatable tasks like software development. Thus, the common approach to "measure productivity" is to compare the estimates against what, in fact, happened. This is standard Product Management. Done by every Product Manager for every Product Company.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). . What About the Plan to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty . Traceable – Aligns with other program management artifacts.

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

2017 32

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. No Adult Management.

2017 35

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Root Cause Analysis is Risk Management, that asks the question what is the condition or activity that will create a risk to the success of our project? With this information, the management of the project installs corrective or preventive actions to remove or reduce as much as possible those conditions and activities. Reducible risks.

Project Status Reporting – 6 Key Considerations

Project Health Check

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, Project Managers (PMs) live and die by the Plan. The entire purpose of the Start-up Phase of a Project is to produce a comprehensive Plan for the Project; consisting of an integrated Performance Measurement Baseline (Time, Cost, Scope) and an associated Project Management Plan to monitor and control it. The truth is senior management aren’t really bothered, or at least they shouldn’t be.

2017 192

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

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There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. The first step is to recognize there are immutable principles of managing in the presence of uncertainty. 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

Project Start-Up: The Plan for a Plan

Project Health Check

Du ring the Project Start-up and planning phase, projects will execute detailed planning processes to produce a Performance Measurement Baseline of Cost/Schedule/Scope and an associated Project Management Plan. The project schedule will then steer the project through the foggy waters of its lifecycle and eventually help it to find its way to delivery and closedown. But what about the planning phase itself when the schedule doesn't exist yet?

2017 177

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. The first step is to recognize there are immutable principles of managing in the presence of uncertainty. 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

If we look at the discipline of software engineering, we see that the microeconomics branch of economics deals more with the types of decisions we need to make as software engineers or managers. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. All risk comes from Uncertainty.

2007 32

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

The management of SISoS is really no different than the management of any other enterprise class software system. There are several partitions of this information that are common in building the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). Since all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty, with the resulting risk - estimates are needed to make decisions that impact the future. Several other government estimating organizations.

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. The 2008 mortgage crisis for example (although many did an made lots of money), the government didn't. 285-311, 2017. [7]