6 Tools and Techniques for Controlling Risks

Project Risk Coach

Changes in project risks are inevitable. As a project progresses, the probability and impact of current risks change, new risks emerge, and residual risks may increase or decrease. How can project managers optimize their risk responses and get the results they are looking for? Tom started his project with a risk identification exercise with several stakeholders resulting in a list of 77 risks. Risk Control Tools and Techniques. Risk audit.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” Risk management structure.

2017 37
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Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance MeasuresIncreasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

2017 69

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

We can't talk about estimates or estimate, without also talking about the precision and accuracy of the estimate (the noun) after we have performed the estimate (the verb). . The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . If I'm risking two weeks of work for the Scrum team of 5 people it's a much different need from the risk of a $10B manned spaceflight program being supported to congress for budget authorization. .

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Integrated Master Plan: The Foundation of Program Success , College of Performance Management, May 21, 2014. The Nine "I's" of Program Success ," College of Performance Management. Forming, Storming, Norming, Performing, and Adjourning. Project Performance Management. Connecting the 5 Principles and 5 Practices of Performance-Based Project Management ® To Increase the Probability of Project Success.

2008 45

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). . Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. IT Risk Management.

Principles, Processes, and Practices of Project Success

Herding Cats

What does Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What impediments will be encountered along the way to Done and what work must be performed to handle these impediments? What are the units of measures of progress to plan for each deliverable? With execution underway, managing the risks of the project becomes our focus beyond the engineering work. Principles are timeless. Practices and Process are Fads.

2017 44

Performance-Based Project Management®

Herding Cats

Performance–Based Project Management ® integrates five critical program management process areas with – Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Measures. The inclusion of Technical Performance Measures (TPM) separates this approach from conventional methods based solely on managing cost and schedule. Done” is always defined in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. Build a Risk Adjusted Project Plan in 6 Steps.

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

No matter the project domain or the technical development method, project success is dependent on knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

2017 35

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

Herding Cats

Our topic is Increasing the Probability of Program Success Thorugh Continuous Risk Management. . Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. If you are not managing risk on your project, what are you managing? And as always, in order to manage in the presence of uncertainty, we need to make decisions about how to reduce this uncertainty and therefore reduce the risk that results from the uncertainty. Risk-Adjusted Plans. Unrealistic Performance Expectations.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

I need an estimate because… I need to measure productivity. Although I understand measuring productivity could work well for repeatable activities, it's hard to believe it works well for abstract and, ultimately, non-repeatable tasks like software development. Thus, the common approach to "measure productivity" is to compare the estimates against what, in fact, happened. The audit, surveillance, performance reporting, measurement are at the core of all business processes.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Project Performance Management (#PPM). Risk Management (#RM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). The overarching theme is focused on defining what Done looks like, assessing progress toward Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Project Performance Management.

2015 37

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

2017 32

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Estimating is part of risk management.

2017 35

Project Start-Up: The Plan for a Plan

Project Health Check

Du ring the Project Start-up and planning phase, projects will execute detailed planning processes to produce a Performance Measurement Baseline of Cost/Schedule/Scope and an associated Project Management Plan. The project schedule will then steer the project through the foggy waters of its lifecycle and eventually help it to find its way to delivery and closedown. But what about the planning phase itself when the schedule doesn't exist yet?

2017 177

5 Key Steps to Successful Project Management

Entry

The project plan should contain performance measures and any process changes that need to take place and who and what will these changes impact. Define how to address risks should they arise. Managing your first project can be daunting. To simplify things, here are five steps critical to the successful management of a project: Step 1: Initiate the Project by Defining the Scope.

2017 150

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Root Cause Analysis is Risk Management, that asks the question what is the condition or activity that will create a risk to the success of our project? Without this approach, you only find out about the problems that will cause failure (for example Hertz and Accenture) after they have happened Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

AHP is based on the principle that all measurements are relative. AHP provides a framework to make relative comparisons using a rational decision structure based on scaled pairwise comparisons (Borda Ranking) using a scale that converts stakeholder preferences and priorities into ratio measures. Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another.

2018 40

Cancelling Projects: The Project Isn't Being Done Right

Project Health Check

A classic way to consider project performance is via the triple constraint of scope/cost/time, often with quality thrown in the mix. In part 1 of this article series, we accepted that Projects sometimes need to be cancelled. In part 2, we look at how sometimes the Project being worked on is no longer the right Project. In this part 3, we will look at the other cause of cancelling: the Project isn't being done right.

2017 179

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What are the measures of physical percent complete needed to inform the decision makers of progress to plan in order to take corrective or preventive actions to stay on plan? 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

Project Status Reporting – 6 Key Considerations

Project Health Check

The entire purpose of the Start-up Phase of a Project is to produce a comprehensive Plan for the Project; consisting of an integrated Performance Measurement Baseline (Time, Cost, Scope) and an associated Project Management Plan to monitor and control it. Reporting progress against these, or any risk to them, helps to give an appropriate view on progress without worrying about minor variations against individual tasks.

2017 192

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

2003 38

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What are the measures of physical percent complete needed to inform the decision makers of progress to plan in order to take corrective or preventive actions to stay on plan? 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

The Tyranny of the Urgent - and how to manage it

Project Health Check

But robust planning in general will set up the project for success; things like engaged stakeholders, managed risks and a realistic Performance Measurement Baseline will reduce the likelihood of issues appearing in the first place. Urgent requests: it seems like most requests we get are. I took over a role recently, and rather than a detailed Knowledge Transfer plan covering many topics over a number of weeks, it basically took half an hour.

2017 152

Wilo's Law and Mature Communications Processes

Herding Cats

Any successful technical communication needs to have: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. Technical Performance Measures. Key Performance Parameters. Without these measures, there will always be someone who will interpret what you think you communicated in the wrong way. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Management Planning Principles Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis

2017 46

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Most post-mortems of these software disaster projects have shown that their problems would have been avoided or strongly reduced if there had been an explicit early concern with identifying and resolving their high-risk elements. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. 55-66, 2017.

2007 32

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2017 28

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

There are several partitions of this information that are common in building the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). Since all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty, with the resulting risk - estimates are needed to make decisions that impact the future. But since uncertainty is the creator of risk, you'll have not complied with Tim Lister's direction. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. Do we have measures of Effectiveness, Performance, all the .ilities. Is each of these measures being met for the planned cost at the planned time? .

Communications Management: PMP Study Guide (PMBOK 6th Edition)

ExamsPM

Performance reporting. Includes collecting and distributing project performance information. Project communications components include: Performance reports, Deliverables status, Schedule progress. Keeping open communication channels with the stakeholders is key so they can inform the project manager of potential changes, added risks, and other information. Trend report – examines project results over time to see if performance is improving or deteriorating.

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Landmark’s measure of success over these three years had much more to do with customer satisfaction and market share than with meeting knowingly aggressive targets. Don't toss out the notion that reducing risk and uncertanty and all other performance measures doesn't follow the plan. . Software Measurement and Estimation: A Practical Approach , Linda M.

2007 37

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. The past performance drives future performance within the parameters of the processes. 3] Black Swans in Risk, Myth, Reality and Bad Metaphors . [4]

Modeling the Future is the Basis of Project Success

Herding Cats

In ISO 15288 this is the role of the Risk Management Processes. A second Critical Success Factor is the ability to predict what will happen in the future given the model of the project's activities and risks and the alternative designed as well as emerging designs and external processes. . The model of the project or program tells us what the cost, schedule, and performance - Effectiveness and Performance - Need to be for the project to be a success.

2018 36