Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

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Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. This is from one of our presentations from a International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association meeting on the same topic. Parametric Cost Estimating Handbook.

The Simple Way to Improve Scheduling on Projects

LiquidPlanner

The good news is that it doesn’t need to be this way – and we don’t need a PhD in aerospace engineering to find a solution! Wrangle uncertainty with ranged estimation. One approach to tackle this is to try estimating in ranges.

2021 85

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

Herding Cats

The origins of this paper came about at a recent JSCC meeting here in Boulder, with local Aerospace contractors, the DCMA (Defense Contract Management Agency) and several government agencies (NRO and NASA). And to make those risk-informed decisions in the presence of reducible and irreducible uncertainty we need to ESTIMATE. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates. Estimating Processes. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

In our domain of aerospace and defense, we have reference class for cost, schedule, architecture (DODAF), risk and other attributes of every system ever built in the DOD ( CAPE , CADE ) and NASA ( CARDe/Once ). Yet another class #NoEstimates lack of understanding of estimating, reference class forecasting, reference class databases, parametric estimating, estimating tools, and other well established estimating processes in the agile software development world.

The Problems with Schedules

Herding Cats

Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. Before diving into the details of these, let me address another issue that has come up around project success and estimates. All that line says is this was the baseline estimate at Completion for the project work. It says nothing about the credibility of that estimate, the possibility that one or all of the Root Causes above are in play. Just the estimate.

2016 42

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. In many cases, once the estimates have been made (at proposal or authorization to proceed), recalibrate and reduction the uncertainty of the initial estimates is not always performed. Why did the estimates NOT get better? NoEstimates Estimating

Process Reduces Agility? Only on De Minimis Projects

Herding Cats

Agile for Aerospace Andrew Buter, Curt Stienstra, Steven H. When managing any project as Risk Managers as Tim Lister suggested, we need to make estimates in the presence of these uncertainties as well. NoEstimates Agile Estimating RiskA popular toss off aphrase in some agile circles is process reduces agility. This is course is stated in the absence of any domain or context.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Not because of its use for estimating cost, schedule, and technical performance outcomes on projects, but because this simulation started with a casino's need - in Monte Carlo - to have some level of confidence on how much money they needed every night for the roulette wheel. Precision - how small is the variance of the estimate? Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value? So How Do We Come Up with These Estimates? NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics

2018 34

Understanding Critical Path in Project Management (Example Included)

ProjectManager.com

Since that time, the critical path method has been used in a variety of projects, from construction, aerospace and defense to software and product development, engineering, plant maintenance and more. This can be difficult if you’ve not built a birdhouse before and have nothing to base your estimates on. If that’s the case, get advice from others who have, so you can have the most accurate estimation of the duration of the various tasks possible.

2019 303

The Complete History of Agile Software Development

Agilemania

” At that time, organizations used to estimate three years between a validated business need and an actual application in production. In several industries like aerospace and defense industries, the application delivery lag was more than three years.

2021 74

Project Management Lessons from Mavenlink CEO Ray Grainger

MavenLink

In my case, it was in the aerospace and defense industry. This technology supported a broad range of planning and execution in manufacturing in the aerospace and defense industries. Harpham: Was that your first exposure to the aerospace industry? I learned about project metrics—tracking time, the importance of accurate tracking, and estimation methods. After six or seven years in that aerospace and defense, I moved to another industry.

2017 76

Ranking the Most (and Least) Productive Industries

Redbooth

Industries producing complicated physical goods like Aerospace & Defense and Technology Hardware, also take a long time for work to be completed. To conclude, we present all the data on how long it takes for task completion in each industry where we have sufficient data to provide a productivity estimate. Industries like Metals and Mining, Technology Hardware, and Aerospace & Defense have work that takes a long time to complete.

2018 83

Get to Know Us Better: Frequently Asked Questions about Epicflow

Epicflow Blog

Task Card provides all the information about a single task in a structured way and allows you to interact with your tasks in the following ways: add estimates, update progress, assign/reassign/add/remove resources, select parameters for assigning a certain user, and others.

2021 74

9 Inspirational Teamwork Examples

ProjectManager.com

According to NASA, there were an estimated 400,000 people involved in making the moon landing possible. This included teams of scientists, engineers and technicians, many who had not worked in aerospace before. It seems that people have been spelling team with an “i” for a long time. We live in a culture that promotes the roughed individual, the self-made person, the entrepreneur. They did it all themselves, or so they say.

2019 209

The Impact of Technology on Project Management: Pre-1950s to the Modern Age

Keyedin

Notable projects of this time period include the construction of the Hoover Dam from 1931 to 1936, which included the employment of an estimated 5,000 workers, and the Manhattan Project, which was a research and development project that produced the first atomic bombs during World War II and involved 125,000 workers, cost nearly $2 billion. Project management (PM) dates back as far as there has been a need to achieve things.

2019 60

The Impact of Technology on Project Management: Pre-1950s to the Modern Age

Keyedin

Notable projects of this time period include the construction of the Hoover Dam from 1931 to 1936, which included the employment of an estimated 5,000 workers, and the Manhattan Project, which was a research and development project that produced the first atomic bombs during World War II and involved 125,000 workers, cost nearly $2 billion. Project management (PM) dates back as far as there has been a need to achieve things.

2019 60

Modeling the Future is the Basis of Project Success

Herding Cats

The previous approaches to project performance management and production of the Estimate to Complete and Estimate at Completion make use of past performance. In our aerospace and defense business - not so much. Modeling the Management of Systems Engineering Projects," Daniel Spencer and Shaun Wilson, Aerospace Concepts, DTSO-GD-0734, Proceedings of the 2012 Model-Based Systems Engineering Symposium , 27-28 November 2012. There's a notion going around that. “I

2018 36

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector,” Debra L. Risk Management is essential for development and production programs.

Risk 35

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector,” Debra L.

2012 33

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015

Wrike

Aerospace/. Estimated Project-Oriented Job Openings 2010-2020: . Inadequate cost estimates – 29%. Inaccurate task time estimate – 27%. Need up-to-date facts and figures for a project management report, article, or infographic? Browse this collection of project management statistics collected from studies and reports from the past five years. The data and statistics below are sorted into categories so you can quickly skim to find the information you need.

2015 49