Estimating Agile Projects.Or Not

Leading Answers

Project managers generally like plans and estimates so we can forecast when things should be done and how much they may cost. " So, when project managers hear about ideas such as "let's stop estimating," it can trigger a knee-jerk reaction.

Analogous and Parametric Estimating

MPUG

can become an accurate estimating tool for top-down (Analogous) and bottom-up (Parametric) estimating. With accurate estimates, a Risk Reserve, an Estimating Uncertainty Buffer, and appropriate updating, a leveled schedule can provide a realistic and feasible current forecast of the delivery date for products and services, as well as a realistic basis for impact analysis of issues and change-requests. Using a Schedule Template for Estimating. Happy estimating!

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Project Estimation: Master the Tools and Techniques

Online PM Courses

There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. So, in this article, we’ll take a careful look at project estimation, to help you learn how to master the art and craft of doing it well. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge. Methods and Tools for Project Estimation.

Can Project Duration Estimation be done without Assumptions?

MPUG

That is why duration estimation is one of the most important aspects of project management. In most real life scenarios, clients and mangers are reasonable, giving us some freedom to determine duration estimates for doing our tasks, but this can create other problems. The Estimation Problem. You might hear from the client that the estimates look high. You might explain why you believe the estimates are reasonable based on underlying assumptions. Exact Estimates.

Project Estimation Techniques Everyone Needs To Know

Wrike

Project estimation techniques help project managers accurately estimate essential elements, such as cost and scope , within their projects. What are project estimation techniques? An estimate is a rough calculation of something. Why are project estimates important?

8 Tips for Estimating Resources in Project Management

MavenLink

There are several methods for using project scope to help estimate deliverables, including a top-down or bottom-up approach. Analyze Published Estimating Data. Calculating resources in project management is one of the primary skills for a project manager.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

RBS is one more technique for your estimation tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Take a course covering agile delivery and you’ll learn about relative sizing techniques such as estimating poker or t-shirt sizing. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package.

Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

There's a never-ending opportunity to learn how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty. When you hear that estimates are a waste (we'd rather be coding), estimates are fiction, we're bad at estimating, and the plethora of other excuses for not learning how to estimate, ask if that person has done the minimal homework to learn how to estimate needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty found on all software development projects. .

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

Cost Estimating Assessment Criteria

Herding Cats

Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Indpenednet cost estimate to compare different estimating methods.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts — education, experience, and skill are needed. No credible decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the cost, schedule, and technical performance of that decision. How and when to re-estimate.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate. How can you assess the strategy without making estimates of the impact of the outcome of the hypothesis?

Why We Need Estimates

Herding Cats

The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Related articles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal.

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. Estimating and the resulting Estimates must be described by their accuracy and precision. Related articles. Estimates.

Webinar Recap: Analogous and Parametric Estimating Schedule Template

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Oliver Gildersleeve’s Analogous and Parametric Estimating Schedule Template webinar being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. The new schedule template covers both analogous and parametric estimating features. The objective here is to use Microsoft Project custom views to support estimated. View 04 estimating template initial data that is estimating data based on past medium-sized project.

Top BradEgeland.com Articles Trending on Project Management Update

Brad Egeland

Read all of my latest trending Project Management, Tech, and Business articles that are trending on Project Management Update. link] Use code BRAD10OFF for 10% off your purchase of the Agile estimating tool Planning Poker Read my trending content It's everything you need to know about Project Management and Technology and then some.

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Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

In order to make risk-informed decisions, we must estimate the outcomes and the impacts of those outcomes on future activities (cost, schedule, and technical performance of products and services). Without these estimates, there is no risk management. Without these estimates, there can be no risk management. Be an adult, make estimates of the future outcomes of your risk informed decisions. . [1] Related articles. Risk is everywhere on projects.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. Related articles.

Top 7 Leadership Articles: Winter Edition

Epicflow Blog

Written by Art Petty, this article proposes 8 tips for managers to become better decision-makers. In his article for Gallup, Adam Hickman reflects upon the right ways to promote employees to the position of a manager on a fair basis. The best way to estimate it is to have a face-to-face conversation. In his article dealing with the conflict issue, Roger Trapp analyzes a book by Jennifer Goldman-Wetzler entitled “Optimal Outcomes”.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Related articles. NoEstimates Estimating

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Herding Cats

Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Any estimating process requires discipline and repeatability to produce accurate and precise results. The estimate can also be produced parametrically, empirically, or through a modeling and simulation.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Three Point Estimate Formulas

PM by PM

Quick Reference on Three Point Estimate I have written a series of articles on Three Point Estimate and related concepts. Before reading this, you should look at my first article of the series. I have explained the basic concept of Three Point Estimate in my first article. The post Three Point Estimate Formulas appeared first on PM-by-PM. Cost Management Project Management Time Management 3 point estimate formulas Project Estimation

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How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Before we start, let's look with the notion of estimation.

Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. But the Mean Relative Error of the estimate is with within 25%.

Agile Estimating Methods and Impact on Project Development Performance Index

Herding Cats

The presentation " Quantifying the Impact of Agile Practices ," Larry MacCherone at the RallyOn 2013 Conference, presents some results on estimating impacts. The chart below shows 4 estimating types, including No Estimates, the sample sizes for each type and the components that make up the estimating types. Teams doing Full Scrum have 250% better Quality than teams doing No Estimating. Related articles. How to Estimate Software Development.

Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe

Herding Cats

There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Since all project work operates in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible - and the managers of these projects need to make decisions in the presence of these uncertainties, we need to make estimates to inform our decision-making process. Related articles. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics

Uncertainty creates Risk, Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty Requires Estimating

Herding Cats

When asked to make a decision or a choice in the presence of uncertainty, an estimate is needed, since the information needed to make an informed decision is not available. . Let's define what an estimate is. An estimate is not a guess, it is a value based on sampled data which has been adjusted using statistical estimation procedures. In the strict sense, an estimate is a particular value yielded by an estimator in a given set of circumstances.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. Related articles.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

The estimate of Desired (or even contractual ) schedule, cost, or technical performance of the software project. The granularity of these estimates determining the dynamic behavior of the system ‒ the software project. When we hear the question at what level of an agile project do we estimate – Vision, Theme, Release, Feature, Story, or even Task ‒ the first question is again ­. Related articles. NoEstimates Estimating Governance Mathematics Planning Principles

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

Estimating is an Everyday Life and Everyday Projects

Herding Cats

A recent twitter post started out with I predict my train will depart from platform 12 in 10 minutes: degree of predictability correlates with length of time I then asked and what is the evidence on which you base this estimated time of departure? I got back I didn't estimate departure, there is a timetable there, but Trains someone's run late & platform sometimes changes. But in fact - mathematical fact - there was an estimate made. Related articles.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project. The Five Immutable Principles of Project Success layout the aspects of project success that must be managed using estimates. . There was a question asked on Twitter - what do estimates have to do with these Principles ? Controlling that path - in the presence of uncertainty - means making estimates of the possible outcomes of any decision. .

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Without estimating the delivered value to the business for the estimated cost and time to delivery that value, the balance sheet will be wholly uninformed about when the breakeven date for this expenditure. Related articles.

Common Ground for a Conversation about Estimating

Herding Cats

Neil Killick posted a good question, what's the common ground for talking about estimates. All estimates have two attributes - accuracy and precision. The values of these two attributes are what those needing the estimates are after. With the knowledge of the two values of these two attributes the decision makers can assess the "value" of the estimate. That request comes from those asking for the estimate. But that dysfunction is not "caused" by the estimate.

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Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

You're NOT going to increase the probability of success in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties the create project risk. Anyone telling you that you can make an informed and credible decision while spending other people's money without making estimates is selling you a pig in a pok e.†. † Related articles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.