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Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

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Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

8 Tips for Estimating Resources in Project Management

MavenLink

There are several methods for using project scope to help estimate deliverables, including a top-down or bottom-up approach. For instance, an industry with government or health services clients can expect increased bureaucracy and downtime during reviews, approvals, etc.

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Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

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DP6Jw is an overview of this process. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. These measures, corrective actions, and resulting outcomes operate in the presence of statistical and probabilistic processes. Stochastic process control is the field of study.

Software Estimating Resources

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This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

How to Talk About Estimates

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What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. Estimating and the resulting Estimates must be described by their accuracy and precision. Related articles. Estimates.

Decisions Without Estimates?

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Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. These two points of view are the basis of any credible business management process. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

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One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. One notion in a governance paradigm is It's Not Your Money .

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

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Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Any estimating process requires discipline and repeatability to produce accurate and precise results. The estimate can also be produced parametrically, empirically, or through a modeling and simulation.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

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Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

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There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. Related articles.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

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A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

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ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. An estimate is.

Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

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The behavioral aspects of these decisions involve individuals, organizations, processes, procedures, and governance principles. . You're NOT going to increase the probability of success in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties the create project risk. Related articles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

The Magic 7 Project Portfolio Management Process Steps

Project-Management.pm

Countless business articles have provided you viable information regarding project portfolio management , accompanied by its objective, the roles of the portfolio manager, and the benefits of the project portfolio management as a whole. And the answer to all of these is in the guise of project portfolio management process steps. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #1 – Commitment from the Executives. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #5 – Balance is Key.

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Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

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Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. This randomness comes from the underlying uncertainties (Epistemic and Aleatory) in the processes found in the development of the software. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions. Related articles.

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Project Failure – Why it Happens

Online PM Courses

These have been among our most popular and heavily-read articles, so I hope you’ll enjoy them. We have written a lot of articles (and we’ll continue to do so) on how to make your projects succeed. These articles include: How to get Better Project Management Results. So in this bumper article, I want to focus on what goes wrong. Because there is a lot to say about each, I have had to split this article into two. Articles you might like.

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Software Development Process Improvement Opportunities

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Here's the IT budget for the Federal Government. Related articles. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. When we hear about all the suggested ways to improve the effectiveness of our development effort, if we're to going work on improvements, let's go where the REAL money is. . This is larger than all the IT systems found everywhere else in the world, plus all their custom built IT stuff. This is not the embedded systems. These are business systems.

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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

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Here are my collected works, presentations, briefings, journal papers, articles, white papers, and essays, used to increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS) I've developed and applied over my career in the software-intensive system of systems domain. Managment Processes. Project Governance. Making the Impossible Possible: Applying Heliotropic Abundance for creating Program and Project Management Processes. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate.

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Impacts of traditional project funding models on agile delivery

Kiron Bondale

In one of my previous articles I’d written about the need for change across multiple areas of an organization when undertaking an agile transformation. The challenge with all of these funding approaches is that they are based on an estimated cost of a project rather than the funding we wish to allocate to a product, capability or service. one sprint’s worth), but in most cases, project funding approval processes are not lean enough to encourage such behavior.

2018 153

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

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This means having a set of Principles, Process, and Practices to test the suggestion against. These Five Immutable principles are time phased into Processes that provide answers to the Five Principles. and the connections between each Process are made to form a Closed Loop control systems needed to manage any project. With some details for each process area. To support these Principles and Processes, a set of Practices are needed. Related articles.

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Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

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They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.” Related articles.

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Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

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The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? The beginning of all business critical software development projects is the point in time when performing organizations are least certain about the project, yet it is also the time when top management expects to be delivered project estimates that are very precise. Related articles.

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The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

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This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. There is no sure basis of credibilityy for the No Estimates conjecture that decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without first estimating the impact of the decision. . But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

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DDSTOP The Saga Continues

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We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . The result was a safety stand down for everyone on the site (5,000 Steel Works), including all us office workers, to get the message about health, safety, and safeguards of the materials and processes on site. . Analytical Hierarchical Process .

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

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We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . The result was a safety stand down for everyone on the site (5,000 Steel Works), including all us office workers, to get the message about health, safety, and safeguards of the materials and processes on site. . link] Cost Estimating Tools.

How to Build a Robust Project Risk Culture [8 Steps]

Online PM Courses

A robust risk culture goes beyond having a strong basic risk management process. And the process for creating a robust risk management culture within your project can apply equally if you get a chance to influence your wider organization. Risk culture is a shared set of processes, knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and values about how to deal with risk. To make this work, you need a solid set of risk awareness and management processes. Other Articles You May Like.

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How To Motivate Your Project Team

Girl's Guide to PM

We do it as children, we do it as teenagers (often terrifying our parents in the process) and we do it as adults. Strengths-based project management is an approach to project management that focuses on the people rather than the process. We have so much material about what processes to use, and yet it is estimated that 70% – and possibly as much as 81% – of project success depends on the human side of projects. How To Guides This article contains affiliate links

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Increasing the Probability of Program Success

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We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. The origins of this paper came about at a recent JSCC meeting here in Boulder, with local Aerospace contractors, the DCMA (Defense Contract Management Agency) and several government agencies (NRO and NASA). Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates. System Engineering Processes.

#Noestimates Has Come to This

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So the first part is following standard estimating principles. which states clearly and concisely that decisions can be made (in the presence of uncertainty - which is ALWAYS present on software development projects - without estimating the impact of those decisions. So let's look at this manifesto : Probabilistic over Deterministic - there is no deterministic process in software development. Does that mean we don't need estimating? . No Estimates?

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

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We were on of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . The result was a safety stand down for everyone on the site (5,000 Steel Works), including all us office workers, to get the message about health, safety, and safeguards of the materials and processes on site. . By simply NOT Estimating?

Value First, Requires Margin and Contingency

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The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those three (and all) variables are random variables, usually driven by a stochastic process. This process can be stationary (unchanging distribution) or non-stationary (a changing distribution function). Related articles. There's a popular notion in Agile that says Focus on Value.

Fallacy of the Week

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Five Different Decision-Making Strategies That Don't Need Estimates. How can you know what is strategic without estimating the strategic value to those paying? In the presence of uncertainty, these means making estimates of both the intangible assets and the tangible outcomes. No Estimate needed. Then you'll need to estimate the Value, the Cost to produce that Value, the Time when that Value is needed. Related articles.

Quote of the Day

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Related articles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. NoEstimates Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Quotes

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

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What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. There is naturally occurring variability from uncontrolled processes. If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. Aleatory uncertainty is expressed as a process variability. Related articles.

The Problems with Schedules

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Here's an article, recently referenced by a #NoEstimates twitter post. The headline is deceiving, the article DOES NOT suggest we don't need deadline, but that deadlines without credible assessment of their credibility are the source of many problems on large program. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. All that line says is this was the baseline estimate at Completion for the project work. Just the estimate.

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There is Little New Under the Sun

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It is popular to claim we've never done this before, so how can we possibly estimate the cost and schedule. In that world, we still made estimates of the cost to design, build, and operate the experiment. As well we made estimates of what information will be produced after spending the customers (in most cases the government is the customer) money. Estimates are at the heart of all inventing new physics activities. Process Fusion. Related articles.

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Why Having a Dataset "may" be Necessary but is Far from Sufficient to Support a Position

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In the early days long before laptops and small electronics, I used a PDP-8/m, to write Fast Fourier Transform algorithms in Macro-8, the assembly language in under 4K of memory, to process the outputs of an analog to digital converted capture data off the accelerator. When that's done, I want you to call my colleague at a university on the east coast (we were on the west coast) and have him repeat the process on his equipment to see if you're on the same page with the data.

2017 34

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

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In the same way, when we build a unified set of principles, practices, and processes, and the information they depend on for successful program management by connecting unrelated pieces and parts a confusing and disjointed view of the program is the result. Reductionism must be replaced by emergence where the complex system of data and processes and the sum of the pieces and parts provides a deeper insight into the functions of the system. Related articles.

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

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Scrum is) more defined rather than empirical process. So when we hear anything about the current state of Agile or even that Scrum is NOT empirical and needs to be replaced, ask what new process is being suggested that will meet Dr. Carter's definition? the OODA loop sketch and related insights represent an evolving, open-ended, far from equilibrium process of self-organization, emergence and natural selection. Related articles.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

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These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. For risks that are beyond the vision of the project team a properly implemented risk management process can also rapidly quantify the risks impact and provide sound plans for mitigating its effect. A good risk management process is proactive and fundamentally different than issue management or problem-solving, which is reactive. No Point Estimate of Cost or Duration can be Correct. Related articles.

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