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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

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How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Related articles. Estimates.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. These two points of view are the basis of any credible business management process. Related articles.

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

DP6Jw is an overview of this process. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. These measures, corrective actions, and resulting outcomes operate in the presence of statistical and probabilistic processes. Stochastic process control is the field of study.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

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One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. One notion in a governance paradigm is It's Not Your Money . If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. And the same process is applied to the Scrum development processes on those projects. .

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

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The behavioral aspects of these decisions involve individuals, organizations, processes, procedures, and governance principles. . Related articles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. An estimate is.

Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

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Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions.

2018 51

The Magic 7 Project Portfolio Management Process Steps

Project-Management.pm

Countless business articles have provided you viable information regarding project portfolio management , accompanied by its objective, the roles of the portfolio manager, and the benefits of the project portfolio management as a whole. And the answer to all of these is in the guise of project portfolio management process steps. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #1 – Commitment from the Executives. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #5 – Balance is Key.

Project Failure – Why it Happens

Online PM Courses

These have been among our most popular and heavily-read articles, so I hope you’ll enjoy them. We have written a lot of articles (and we’ll continue to do so) on how to make your projects succeed. These articles include: How to get Better Project Management Results.

2018 197

How To Motivate Your Project Team

Girl's Guide to PM

We do it as children, we do it as teenagers (often terrifying our parents in the process) and we do it as adults. Strengths-based project management is an approach to project management that focuses on the people rather than the process.

2019 385

Software Development Process Improvement Opportunities

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Here's the IT budget for the Federal Government. Related articles. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

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Here are my collected works, presentations, briefings, journal papers, articles, white papers, and essays, used to increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS) I've developed and applied over my career in the software-intensive system of systems domain. Managment Processes.

2003 59

Impacts of traditional project funding models on agile delivery

Kiron Bondale

In one of my previous articles I’d written about the need for change across multiple areas of an organization when undertaking an agile transformation. one sprint’s worth), but in most cases, project funding approval processes are not lean enough to encourage such behavior.

Agile 205

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

This means having a set of Principles, Process, and Practices to test the suggestion against. These Five Immutable principles are time phased into Processes that provide answers to the Five Principles. With some details for each process area. Related articles.

2017 90

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. "A

2012 54

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . Analytical Hierarchical Process .

How to Build a Robust Project Risk Culture [8 Steps]

Online PM Courses

A robust risk culture goes beyond having a strong basic risk management process. And the process for creating a robust risk management culture within your project can apply equally if you get a chance to influence your wider organization. Other Articles You May Like. Processes.

Risk 135

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . Buy a Software Estimating tool, like one of these.

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

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This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 64

Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.” Related articles.

2016 40

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

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We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates. Processes to Prevent Unfavorable Impacts.

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

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We were on of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . By simply NOT Estimating? All by NOT Estimating?

#Noestimates Has Come to This

Herding Cats

So the first part is following standard estimating principles. which states clearly and concisely that decisions can be made (in the presence of uncertainty - which is ALWAYS present on software development projects - without estimating the impact of those decisions. No Estimates?

PMO Best Practices: 7 Steps for Better Schedule Management

MPUG

There was an initial resistance in implementing new processes, but my client was very supportive. I have written this article to share the best steps for implementing and managing project schedules in a PMO. Step II – Create Processes and Guidelines.

PMO 83

Value First, Requires Margin and Contingency

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The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those three (and all) variables are random variables, usually driven by a stochastic process. Related articles.

Why Identifying as a Project Business is Critical For Success

The Lazy Project Manager

The following article is the first of four in a series on ‘Project Business’ and is authored by Daniel Bévort. As such I am delighted to share these articles with you. In traditional industries, processes and data are standardized no matter who is doing the work.

2020 271

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

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What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. Related articles.

The Problems with Schedules

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Here's an article, recently referenced by a #NoEstimates twitter post. The headline is deceiving, the article DOES NOT suggest we don't need deadline, but that deadlines without credible assessment of their credibility are the source of many problems on large program. Just the estimate.

2016 55

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

In the same way, when we build a unified set of principles, practices, and processes, and the information they depend on for successful program management by connecting unrelated pieces and parts a confusing and disjointed view of the program is the result. Related articles.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

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These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. For risks that are beyond the vision of the project team a properly implemented risk management process can also rapidly quantify the risks impact and provide sound plans for mitigating its effect. Related articles.

Risk 48

Project Management, Jungle-Style

MPUG

With regard to the Tiger Tops workforce, what is the estimated time-on-the-job for all employees (in years)? Please describe the process in your own words…. Well, we had to move one entire lodge from the interior of the jungle, to the exterior (as mandated by the government).

2020 56

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

Scrum is) more defined rather than empirical process. So when we hear anything about the current state of Agile or even that Scrum is NOT empirical and needs to be replaced, ask what new process is being suggested that will meet Dr. Carter's definition? Related articles.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

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No matter the engineering processes used to produce the outcomes from the project. Estimating how much is the starting point. Since all risks come from uncertainty, we have to estimate those uncertainties, their impacts, their residual risks after mitigation. No Estimating?

Fallacy of the Week

Herding Cats

Five Different Decision-Making Strategies That Don't Need Estimates. How can you know what is strategic without estimating the strategic value to those paying? In the presence of uncertainty, these means making estimates of both the intangible assets and the tangible outcomes. No Estimate needed. Then you'll need to estimate the Value, the Cost to produce that Value, the Time when that Value is needed. Related articles.