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Estimating Agile Projects.Or Not

Leading Answers

Project managers generally like plans and estimates so we can forecast when things should be done and how much they may cost. " So, when project managers hear about ideas such as "let's stop estimating," it can trigger a knee-jerk reaction.

Project Management Processes & Phases

ProjectManager.com

If so, it might be time to start implementing proven project management processes and phases at your organization in order to bring your company’s workflow under control. At first, the concept of the project management process and its practical adaption can seem a little daunting, but this article will give you everything you need to set up PM processes and phases at your business. Cost: Estimate the costs involved across the project and formulate a budget.

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A Deep Dive into Risk Matrix Reporting

MPUG

For example, in project management you have data such as planned start, planned cost, planned story points, total number of risks, etc. I’m referring to things such as start variance, cost variance, and the number of high priority vs number of low priority risks.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty, which is the naturally occurring yields variances in the underlying processes. Epistemic uncertainty comes from probabilistic processes that can be addressed with handling responses. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. Without these estimates, there is no risk management.

Project Management Process & Phases

ProProfs Project Management

In simple terms, the Project Management process is the art of managing all components of a project from starting to closure using a structured scientific methodology. Let’s learn about the whole process while discussing 5 project management steps of a project life cycle.

Project Estimation: Master the Tools and Techniques

Online PM Courses

There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. So, in this article, we’ll take a careful look at project estimation, to help you learn how to master the art and craft of doing it well. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge. Methods and Tools for Project Estimation.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

RBS is one more technique for your estimation tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Take a course covering agile delivery and you’ll learn about relative sizing techniques such as estimating poker or t-shirt sizing. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. This includes planning for and execution the project by phase and activity level cost estimates.

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

DP6Jw is an overview of this process. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. These measures, corrective actions, and resulting outcomes operate in the presence of statistical and probabilistic processes. Stochastic process control is the field of study.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. And the same process is applied to the Scrum development processes on those projects. .

How to Build a Robust Project Risk Culture [8 Steps]

Online PM Courses

A robust risk culture goes beyond having a strong basic risk management process. Some of my readers may hope to influence the risk culture of their whole organization. For you, the right aspiration is to build a positive risk culture within your project. But explicitly, we’re going to focus on how your project that can create and impose risk management discipline on a blank project canvas. What is Risk Culture? Other Articles You May Like.

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How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . Related articles. Estimates.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. This would be like saying, risk management is a waste , control system engineering is a waste, thermal analysis of the computer system is a waste, assessment of the reliability, repairability, survivability - all the. Related articles.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. These two points of view are the basis of any credible business management process. If you want to decide what's the probability of occurrence of some Epistemic uncertainty or the statistical processes for some aleatory activity you need to estimate. Don't assume, Estimate.

The Project Manager’s Guide to Simple Risk Analysis

Online PM Courses

Risk analysis is both easy and hard at the same time. No project manager can get by without knowing how to analyze risk on your project. Risk is important, because it is baked into the nature of projects. Is it any wonder that one of the most quoted aphorisms in project manager is this, from Tim Lister: Risk Management is Project Management for Grown-Ups’ Where Does Risk Analysis Fit in? Risk analysis is one part of the wider Risk Management process.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. Related articles.

Risk Response Strategy (Definitive Guide with Examples)

PM Basics

How to select a Risk Response Strategy? But let me simplify it for you in this article. Here you will find examples of risk responses for both threats and opportunities. But there’s a catch: You may have a limited mindset in regards to dealing with risks. So, I would suggest you review examples of dealing with different risks on a real project first. Project Risk Management Overview. Definition of Risk Response Strategies. Risk Register Column.

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Top 7 Leadership Articles: Winter Edition

Epicflow Blog

If the sales rate decreases, think over all the parties participating in this process. To understand the figures, there’s nothing better than talking to the heroes involved in the process of data production. This process should also involve taking into account all related facts and data related to the disparities and their further investigation. Written by Art Petty, this article proposes 8 tips for managers to become better decision-makers.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Related articles.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Herding Cats

Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Any estimating process requires discipline and repeatability to produce accurate and precise results. The estimate can also be produced parametrically, empirically, or through a modeling and simulation.

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete ? ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Risk can be the potential consequence of a specific outcome that affects the system's ability to meet cost, schedule, and/or technical objectives. Related articles.

Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk

Herding Cats

Yesterday's Post What Is Risk? Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes in two kinds for all projects, for everything actually. Aleatory uncertainty, from the naturally occurring variances in the process and Epistemic uncertainty from the probabilistic event-based processes that impact the project. Epistemic uncertainty and the risk it creates can be reduced with handling processes.

Do You Know These 6 Practical Risk Identification Techniques?

PM Basics

How to perform risk identification ? What risk identification techniques to use? Check the topic on PMBOK® Guide: It says nothing about the practical application of risk identification processes. In this article, I’ll tell you what techniques you can use today. Risk Identification Methods vs. Risk Identification Techniques. Risk Identification Methods. “A There’re three Risk Identification Methods you can use on a practical level: 1.

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How To Create A Simple Project Plan (Project Planning Process)

PM Basics

Nevertheless, project planning is a structured and logical process. In this article, I’ll show you a proven workflow. At each moment of the process, you’re in need of information that you don’t have yet. Most of the processes are interrelated, and you don’t know where to start from. You use outputs from the previous steps in the next step in the process. You need to evaluate each process. Here, I focus on project planning process only.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. An estimate is.

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of John Owen’s showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. Kyle: Hello, everyone, and welcome to today’s MPUG vendor showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, presented by Barbecana. I’m going to talk about schedule risk analysis. It’s got nothing to do with poor estimates, poor execution, and so on.

Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The term within 25% is the Mean Relative Error, that is the estimate is within 25% of the actual value - the real value compared to the estimated value. Related articles. Want To Learn How To Estimate?

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of John Owen’s showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. Kyle: Hello, everyone, and welcome to today’s MPUG vendor showcase session, Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis, presented by Barbecana. I’m going to talk about schedule risk analysis. It’s got nothing to do with poor estimates, poor execution, and so on.

Agile Estimating Methods and Impact on Project Development Performance Index

Herding Cats

The presentation " Quantifying the Impact of Agile Practices ," Larry MacCherone at the RallyOn 2013 Conference, presents some results on estimating impacts. The chart below shows 4 estimating types, including No Estimates, the sample sizes for each type and the components that make up the estimating types. The Higher the number the better the performance of the process. Teams doing Full Scrum have 250% better Quality than teams doing No Estimating.

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which will potentially impact the program later, termed Known Unknowns and can be alleviated with good risk management. requires making estimates) ? Effective Risk Management 2 nd Edition , Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister. Risk Management Papers. “A

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Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe

Herding Cats

There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. These planning and controls activities always take place in the presence of uncertainty, which of course creates risk. And of course to manage in the presence of uncertainty and the resulting risks we need specific processes and practices based on principles. . Related articles. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics

Information Technology Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister (IBM). It can't be stated too often - either manage risk, or risk will manage you. Projects without risk management are late and over budget before they start. Reducible uncertainties can have specific actions to reduce to risks that result from the uncertainties. Irreducible uncertainties can have no specific actions, but must have margin to protect from the resulting risk. Related articles.

Small Batch Sizes are NOT Risk Management

Herding Cats

There is a popular fallacy in the Agile community that small batch sizes are Risk Management. What small batches do is provide information that informs risk management at a fast rate. The sampling rate of a dynamic process under control. Or the sampling rate of a signal from a process you want to model. This analog signal is the underlying dynamics of the software development process. Specific actions must be taken to manage the risk.

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The Magic 7 Project Portfolio Management Process Steps

Project-Management.pm

Countless business articles have provided you viable information regarding project portfolio management , accompanied by its objective, the roles of the portfolio manager, and the benefits of the project portfolio management as a whole. And the answer to all of these is in the guise of project portfolio management process steps. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #1 – Commitment from the Executives. Project Portfolio Management Process Steps : #5 – Balance is Key.

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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. Related articles.

Aleatory Uncertainty Creates Irreducible Risk

Herding Cats

Yesterday's Post Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk and What Is Risk? Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes in two kinds for all projects, for everything actually. Aleatory uncertainty, from the naturally occurring variances in the process and Epistemic uncertainty from the probabilistic event-based processes that impact the project. Irreducible Schedule Risk.