It’s impossible to witness the human suffering going on in Japan without feeling compassion for the people involved. The entire Japanese nation has been rocked to the core by the earthquake, the incredible tsunami, and the horrific aftermath. Now the entire world is on edge, watching the unstable situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

If you are a project manager, you are in the risk business. Your job is to manage uncertainty (if it were certain, they wouldn’t need you). So, what can we learn from this?

The first lesson is simple: quit denying that risk is possible, and embrace it.

I watched an interview with Dr. Akira Omoto, one of the designers of the plant, who responded to the nuclear problem by saying that “what happened was beyond our expectations.” Exactly. They never expected a magnitude 9 earthquake or a tsunami that was 10 meters high. They didn’t expect massive power failures. And now three safety measures to cool down the rods failed, and we are on the edge of a nuclear disaster that could have far-reaching implications.

On a much (much) smaller scale, I recently experienced a failure to properly assess risk. Three weeks ago, I was in a motorcycle accident. After it was over, and I was recovering in bed, I began to deconstruct exactly what had happened. I had become momentarily distracted, traffic came to a sudden stop in front of me, I downshifted and braked hard, but the bike instantly went into a skid, and I went into what riders know as a “low side fall.” I suffered some abrasions, some broken ribs, and a severely wounded ego.

Now, it’s easy for me to say “I should have never become distracted,” which is true, but that does not fully account for the wreck. A few days ago I went out to assess the bike, and I found that the front tire pressure was 20 lbs where it should have been 40. Although not visible, the tire was flat, which substantially reduced my traction. More than one risk factor had converged. Neither one alone would have caused my wreck. That is the way risk works. It’s almost always more than one factor that comes into play. It’s typically a “perfect storm” of unexpected problems that hits us.

The best project mangers learn from other people’s disasters. Take time to look at your own project, understand risk factors, and ask yourself “what if?” Create plans. While it might be easier to just stick your head in the sand and say “that won’t ever happen,” risk events occur on projects constantly. There is no substitute for anticipation and planning.

Most importantly, start somewhere. Having half a plan to address risk is better than having no plan. You can always review and enhance it as risks are understood.

After all, when your perfect storm hits, which would you rather say: “we have a plan for that,” or “what happened was beyond my expectations”?