Every [leader] is a gambler
Admiral John McCain
(the senator's father)
Admiral Halsey's air commander, WW II in the Pacific
Admiral Halsey's air commander, WW II in the Pacific
And, so what do we make of that idea?*
- To exert leadership, do we layer a propensity to gamble on top of the usual uncertainty that goes along with projects? Is it additive, or compounding?
- As a gambler, should we expect certain rules to apply ... as in poker?
- Should we put aside reserves since "the house always wins ... in the long run"**
- What if we are naturally risk averse ... can we be an effective leader nonetheless?
- Are managers just leaders who are not gamblers? (Ouch! if you're a manager)
To the second point: No! The rules that govern probability examples in textbooks and games in the casino don't really apply to project management. Why? Because in projects, coins aren't fair (see: politics), they have more than two sides, and projects are not stationary over long periods (see: stuff happens!)
To the third point: "It's reserves, stupid!". Of course you need reserves. If you need an explanation, you're really not managing a project, you're hoping
To the fourth point: That's actually hard. Yes, some can adopt a "professional" risk profile different from their natural profile, but it's exhausting and hard to maintain over time
And, to the last point: Not exactly. See the fourth point.
*Admiral Halsey, as a WWII Pacific fleet commander, was perhaps the greatest naval gambler America had -- he even gambled with typhoons; and, he lost his share of bets
**The Las Vegas strip is financed by losers
**The Las Vegas strip is financed by losers
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