Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. Be an Adult, estimate the impact of the risk on the probability of success.

Trending Sources

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Herding Cats: Decisions Without Estimates?

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. A core principle of Managerial Finance is Value cannot be determined without knowing the Cost to achieve that Value. .

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. An estimate is.

Operations, Finance, and Accounting for the Development of Software

Herding Cats

A Scrum of people works very well when doing Scrum , but operations, finance, and accounting are not the same as writing software for money. A Scrum of cost accountants, planner, finance, and operations people is called Chaos. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. It's common to hear, projects are overhead, we just need to get the value to the customer as fast as possible. This seems to be a lament from agile developers.

Thoughts on Suggestions That Violate Principles of Finance, Probability, and Statistics

Herding Cats

The on-going discussions that Decisions can be made in the absence of estimates reminds me of this concept. . So the decision to estimate or not estimate rarely belongs to the developers spending the business's money. How to Estimate Any Software Problem.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Again, this is the basis of Managerial Finance. Agile Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Scheduling

Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.”

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. This is basic managerial finance when spending other people’s money. Since software development usually operated in the presence of uncertainty, an estimate of the cost and benefit of the change needs to be made.

Book of the Month - IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software

Herding Cats

Estimating is part of all decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Accuracy and precision are two primary attributes of all estimates. We all know estimates are hard. So why is estimating a topic that seems to be the whipping boy for software developers these days?

Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating Management RiskAll project work is uncertain. This uncertainty comes in two forms - Aleatory and Epistemic. Aleatory Uncertainty is irreducible, Epistemic uncertainty is reducible.

2013 30

A Reminder of the Pseudo-Science of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

That is, ways to make decisions with "No Estimates". How would you assess a decision in the presence of uncertainty without making an estimate of the outcome of that decision. Defies the principles of managerial finance in the presence of uncertainty. When you hear.

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of this emerging uncertainty requires making estimates of the impacts or outcomes of any decision. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

There's another rash of Twitter posters supporting the conjecture that decisions can be made about how to spend other people's money without estimating the impact and outcome of that decision. When it is conjecture decisions can be made in the presence of uncertanty without estimates - like the Original Poster did, and there is no supporting theory, principle, practices, or evidence of how that can be done - run away - it's a bogus claim. . NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating

2008 23

Releases and Deadlines in Agile

Herding Cats

This is the basis of managerial finance and decision making in the presence of uncertainty - Microeconomics of Decision Making. The other 4 include Bad Estimates for the cost and schedule to reach Done. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating Planning

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Estimating

Revisiting the Double Pendulum Problem

Herding Cats

In the same way the original posters of #NoEstimates state their case that decisions CAN be made without estimating, when in fact that violates microeconomics, managerial finance, and several other principles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2009 26

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

Misquotes of Deming

Herding Cats

This is used in support of the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. It's common to misquote famous quotes. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

If we replace Aliens and Scientist with Finance and Management and the phrase we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact, cost, or schedule of those decisions , we're on the same page.

What To Do When Your Team Doesn’t Believe The Project Schedule

Girl's Guide to PM

You’ve just got one day for budget approval,” said Claire from Finance. Given all their experience, they should be able to come up with some realistic estimates for time frames for all the tasks on the plan. It’s difficult to tell a Sponsor that your initial estimates were wrong.

2016 126

Agile Project Management Methods for Corporate IT Projects

Herding Cats

This definition for single scrum teams needs to come in contact with Corporate Governance, managerial finance, decision making in the presence of uncertainty when spending the firms money that has impacts beyond the team and their natural desire to control their own destiny.

SCRUM 36

Find the Root Cause Before Assuming Your Fix Can Actually Fix Anything

Herding Cats

A burst of Tweets of No Estimates fixes these problems came across Twitter this morning. But here's a core concept that is totally missing from not only the No Estimates conjecture, but from most every discussion, where a solution is proposed before the problem has been actually defined. Calling estimating the smell of Dysfunction doesn't make estimating the smell of dysfunction. Are Estimates Really The Smell of Dysfunction?

Tax Planning for PM Contractors in 2016

Arras People

Changes to the personal finance policy and legislation will continue throughout the year, therefore it is important that you are clued up on what is to come. The government estimate that this will lead to 95% of people not paying tax on interest gained from these savings. Getting ahead and planning your tax in 2016 is vital, especially in an environment that is constantly evolving.

2016 42

A collection of #NoEstimates Responses

Herding Cats

Can you make a non-trivial (NOT de minimis) decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating? They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers.

Not Even Wrong

Herding Cats

So of course when we hear some theory in the project management domain that has no basis in principle, no testable evidence and is essentially a cockamamie idea violating the rules of managerial finance, microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty, and any sense of business governance of other people's money - think of Pauli and his student. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

When the firm allows managers and their staffs to make decisions based on principles, it creates the freedom to make an informed judgment, based on evidence or estimates of the outcomes of that decision. . GAAP rules for finance and account. Since all business operates in the presence of uncertanty, estimates are needed to assess the impact of a decision. To NOT Estimate is to willfully Ignore a fundamental principle of business management.

2010 16

The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance

Herding Cats

The basis of #Noestimates is that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without having to estimate the impact of those decisions. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. Some More Background on Probability, Needed for Estimating.

The Classic Misunderstanding between Principles, Practices, and Process

Herding Cats

You cannot make an informed decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of that decision. To claim otherwise willfully ignores the principles of managerial finance and probabilistic decision-making. A recent Twitter post make the false claim that.

2003 14

Systems Engineering and Software Intensive System of Systems

Herding Cats

Finance, social, political. Estimating Guidance. There was a Twitter post mentioning Russell Ackoff YouTube about systems. A system is never the sum of its parts, it's the product of their interactions. This is a good start, but it needs to produce actionable outcomes , not just principles, but practices and processes. How do you define, design, represent, assess, analyze, and manage these interactions. The notion that systems are somehow unmanageable is fine in some domains.

5 Traits of Successful Project Managers

Arras People

On a business aspect, a project manager must possess the critical expertise skills that touch in areas of finance, communication, organization and human resource. Accurate estimates and cost control.

Top 10 Free Invoice Templates Resources

Paymo App

By removing paperwork and advanced interfaces, this resource is practical for anyone who’s a beginner when it comes to finance and business management. You can use them to create, send, and monitor all of your invoices and estimates from one single place.

The 20 Education Venues for Online Master of Project Management

Project-Management.pm

Managerial Accounting and Finance for Leadership. The following classes include: Project Estimation and Risk Management. An online master of project management is one of the best investments one has in order to advance his or her certification levels or acquire one. Online education has been around for decades, catering to distance learning and for those who do not have access to extra education due to their location and schedule.

Improving portfolio management must be part of an agile transformation

Kiron Bondale

This makes it impossible to accurately estimate capacity during iteration planning and usually contributes to a team missing their iteration commitments resulting in delivery delays.

Have You Considered Legal Project Management?

Girl's Guide to PM

The model most often adopted is for a legal project manager to become embedded within a legal team doing particular kinds of legal work such as banking and finance, mergers & acquisitions, commercial property or certain types of complex commercial litigation such as construction disputes.

The true value of change

The Lazy Project Manager

But again, it is a rough estimate that is needed for this exercise. And finally, estimates of disruption ratio percentage (use the 20% provided if you don’t have a true idea of your own organisations percentage) and failure factor ratio percentage but only for the growth projects.

Fallacy of the Week

Herding Cats

When we want we to make a decision in the presence of this uncertainty, using these random variables, we need to know about their behaviors, and we need to estimate what the outcome of that decision might be, how that outcome will impact the success of our work, and what residual uncertainty is left behind. You can't make decision in the presence of uncertainty without making estimates about those decisions. Manage risk, estimate, manage other people's money like an adult.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

In the presence of uncertainty found in all project work - aleatory and epistemic - estimates are required to make decisions. Without these estimates, any decision is with knowledge of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind.