Operations, Finance, and Accounting for the Development of Software

Herding Cats

A Scrum of people works very well when doing Scrum , but operations, finance, and accounting are not the same as writing software for money. A Scrum of cost accountants, planner, finance, and operations people is called Chaos. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. It's common to hear, projects are overhead, we just need to get the value to the customer as fast as possible. This seems to be a lament from agile developers.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. Be an Adult, estimate the impact of the risk on the probability of success.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.

Thoughts on Suggestions That Violate Principles of Finance, Probability, and Statistics

Herding Cats

The on-going discussions that Decisions can be made in the absence of estimates reminds me of this concept. . So the decision to estimate or not estimate rarely belongs to the developers spending the business's money. How to Estimate Any Software Problem.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Again, this is the basis of Managerial Finance. Agile Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Scheduling

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. A core principle of Managerial Finance is Value cannot be determined without knowing the Cost to achieve that Value. .

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? Let's put aside for the moment the missing principles of managerial finance, probabilistic decision making, microeconomics of decision making, Real Options, Bayesian decision networks, and other decision making processes used in modern business when spending other people's money. An estimate is.

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. This is basic managerial finance when spending other people’s money. Since software development usually operated in the presence of uncertainty, an estimate of the cost and benefit of the change needs to be made.

3 Team Techniques to Improve Cost Estimates

Project Risk Coach

Improve buy-in and support for your project budgets Do you ever feel like the Lone Ranger when trying to improve cost estimates? Many project managers are left to their own devices when estimating projects. So, how can we improve our cost estimates?

Book of the Month - IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software

Herding Cats

Estimating is part of all decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Accuracy and precision are two primary attributes of all estimates. We all know estimates are hard. So why is estimating a topic that seems to be the whipping boy for software developers these days?

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Finance is a pure information processing game. Managerial Finance and Microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty is the foundation of project management processes. NoEstimates Estimating Quotes

Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.”

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. Let's look at what an estimate is.

2018 81

Fallacy of the Week

Herding Cats

Five Different Decision-Making Strategies That Don't Need Estimates. How can you know what is strategic without estimating the strategic value to those paying? In the presence of uncertainty, these means making estimates of both the intangible assets and the tangible outcomes. No Estimate needed. Then you'll need to estimate the Value, the Cost to produce that Value, the Time when that Value is needed. Herding Cats: Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating.

2018 55

A Reminder of the Pseudo-Science of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

That is, ways to make decisions with "No Estimates". How would you assess a decision in the presence of uncertainty without making an estimate of the outcome of that decision. Defies the principles of managerial finance in the presence of uncertainty. When you hear.

2016 94

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 94

Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating Management RiskAll project work is uncertain. This uncertainty comes in two forms - Aleatory and Epistemic. Aleatory Uncertainty is irreducible, Epistemic uncertainty is reducible.

2013 72

Antifragile, Macro and Micro Economics and the Misuse of Terms (Again)

Herding Cats

The Buzz Word Anti-fragile is tossed around lately by #NoEstimates advocates claiming that making estimate creates fragility to the work. The books of Taleb are focused on the Macroeconomics of public finance and the institutions that serve them.

2018 56

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Estimating

2016 65

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of this emerging uncertainty requires making estimates of the impacts or outcomes of any decision. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

In the presence of uncertainty (reducible or irreducible), to make decisions, we need to make estimates. These estimates of risk and its impact on the future can be informed by past performance (Reference Class Forecasting) or models of that future performance (Monte Carlo Simulation, Method of Moments, or Parametric modeling). Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. We tend to seek easy, single-factor explanations of success.

2018 52

Decision Making in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

There's another rash of Twitter posters supporting the conjecture that decisions can be made about how to spend other people's money without estimating the impact and outcome of that decision. When it is conjecture decisions can be made in the presence of uncertanty without estimates - like the Original Poster did, and there is no supporting theory, principle, practices, or evidence of how that can be done - run away - it's a bogus claim. . NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating

2008 56

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

If we replace Aliens and Scientist with Finance and Management and the phrase we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact, cost, or schedule of those decisions , we're on the same page.

2018 61

Revisiting the Double Pendulum Problem

Herding Cats

In the same way the original posters of #NoEstimates state their case that decisions CAN be made without estimating, when in fact that violates microeconomics, managerial finance, and several other principles. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2016 65

Improving portfolio management must be part of an agile transformation

Kiron Bondale

This makes it impossible to accurately estimate capacity during iteration planning and usually contributes to a team missing their iteration commitments resulting in delivery delays.

Agile 153

Releases and Deadlines in Agile

Herding Cats

This is the basis of managerial finance and decision making in the presence of uncertainty - Microeconomics of Decision Making. The other 4 include Bad Estimates for the cost and schedule to reach Done. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating Planning

How to Create a Project Assumptions List: Examples and Template Included

Project Bliss

Budget – estimated cost of the project. Finances – funding to complete the project. Budget – estimated cost of the project. Finances – funding to complete the project.

2018 159

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

There is NO principle of Managerial Finance, Probabilistic Decision Making, or Microeconomics by which - in the presence of uncertainty - a credible decision can be made without estimating the outcome of that decision and its impact on the scarce resources that create that uncertainty.

2018 61

A collection of #NoEstimates Responses

Herding Cats

Can you make a non-trivial (NOT de minimis) decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating? They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers.

The Open Mindedness and Logical Fallacy

Herding Cats

Every once in awhile a reasonably intelligent No Estimates advocate shows up in a Twitter discussion. They often say you should be open-minded and try the concepts of No Estimates first. . This can range from cherry picking examples - I know CEOs who don't use estimates.

2018 86

The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance

Herding Cats

The basis of #Noestimates is that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without having to estimate the impact of those decisions. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. Some More Background on Probability, Needed for Estimating.

Misquotes of Deming

Herding Cats

This is used in support of the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. It's common to misquote famous quotes. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote.

2016 74

The Real Benefits of Time Reports for Project Management

Paymo App

This helps you find out if you should limit your costs so that you’ll keep up with your finances. With the data you have gathered at hand, you’ll also make better time estimates for following projects. No successful business has grown overnight.

2018 58

Agile Project Management Methods for Corporate IT Projects

Herding Cats

This definition for single scrum teams needs to come in contact with Corporate Governance, managerial finance, decision making in the presence of uncertainty when spending the firms money that has impacts beyond the team and their natural desire to control their own destiny.

Agile 105

5 Traits of Successful Project Managers

Arras People

On a business aspect, a project manager must possess the critical expertise skills that touch in areas of finance, communication, organization and human resource. Accurate estimates and cost control.

2016 220

Not Even Wrong

Herding Cats

So of course when we hear some theory in the project management domain that has no basis in principle, no testable evidence and is essentially a cockamamie idea violating the rules of managerial finance, microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty, and any sense of business governance of other people's money - think of Pauli and his student. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Top 10 Free Invoice Templates Resources

Paymo App

By removing paperwork and advanced interfaces, this resource is practical for anyone who’s a beginner when it comes to finance and business management. You can use them to create, send, and monitor all of your invoices and estimates from one single place.

Find the Root Cause Before Assuming Your Fix Can Actually Fix Anything

Herding Cats

A burst of Tweets of No Estimates fixes these problems came across Twitter this morning. But here's a core concept that is totally missing from not only the No Estimates conjecture, but from most every discussion, where a solution is proposed before the problem has been actually defined. Calling estimating the smell of Dysfunction doesn't make estimating the smell of dysfunction. Are Estimates Really The Smell of Dysfunction?

The Classic Misunderstanding between Principles, Practices, and Process

Herding Cats

You cannot make an informed decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of that decision. To claim otherwise willfully ignores the principles of managerial finance and probabilistic decision-making. A recent Twitter post make the false claim that.