Cost Estimation for Projects: How to Estimate Accurately

ProjectManager.com

Good cost estimation is essential for keeping a project under budget. Many costs can appear over the life cycle of a project, and an accurate estimation method can be the difference between a successful plan and a failed one. Estimation, however, is easier said than done.

Governance and Estimating

Herding Cats

If your business is not subject to any external governance process, you’re free to spend your money as you please. Governance includes: Responsibility for a specific duty, task, or decision. The governing of IT systems has two distinct components. NoEstimates Governance

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. COSMIC Software Estimation Approach,” Alain Abran, ICEAA Workshop, Portland Oregon, June 6?9, Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Estimates.

Project Governance: Establishing an Effective Steering Committee

Strategy Execution | PMO Perspectives

Within the project management community, the concept of governance is seen as a fundamental project control, which is easy to grasp in principle. Getting the governance piece right requires insight and at times a few honest conversations about roles and responsibilities.

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

System of Delivery: An Intro to Our Governance Model

Leading Agile

Our governance model and team design may look a little complicated at first glance. In this presentation, our Chief Methodologist, Dennis Stevens will remove the noise and walk you through our governance model and team design to help you better understand the LeadingAgile system of delivery.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. One notion in a governance paradigm is It's Not Your Money . If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Herding Cats

Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Reality of the Value of Estimating

Herding Cats

Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estimate first from Harold van Heeringen. NoEstimates Estimating Governance

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Agile Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Scheduling

Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The behavioral aspects of these decisions involve individuals, organizations, processes, procedures, and governance principles. . Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

The estimate of Desired (or even contractual ) schedule, cost, or technical performance of the software project. The granularity of these estimates determining the dynamic behavior of the system ‒ the software project. When we hear the question at what level of an agile project do we estimate – Vision, Theme, Release, Feature, Story, or even Task ‒ the first question is again ­. NoEstimates Estimating Governance Mathematics Planning Principles

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Before we start, let's look with the notion of estimation.

A Brief Introduction to Project Portfolio Governance

Brightwork

A director of information services in one organization estimated that his department had 20 projects in flight. Situations like this are quite common in project management, making strong project portfolio governance essential. The rest of this blog will explore the importance of project portfolio governance in an organization, including a few ways a tool like BrightWork can help! What is Project Portfolio Governance?

Project Failure – Why it Happens

Online PM Courses

– 2 – Governance. Governance is hardly the most sexy of project management disciplines. Good governance is a cornerstone of project success, so poor governance inevitably leads to project failure. Lack of Governance Structure. Poor Estimating.

2018 197

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Governance. Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS) , Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. Basis of Estimate Process. Governance. Program Governance Roadmap.

2003 59

The Pseudo Science of No Estimates

Herding Cats

estimates are the smell of dysfunction, so let's not estimate and the dysfunction will disappear." Because "we're just developers who can't even make high level estimates how much it will cost and we work for bonehead managers who can't tell the difference between a good estimate and a bad estimate," doesn't have the same ring. This comes to the discussion of Value at Risk and what are estimates for other than to protect Value at Risk.

Impacts of traditional project funding models on agile delivery

Kiron Bondale

The challenge with all of these funding approaches is that they are based on an estimated cost of a project rather than the funding we wish to allocate to a product, capability or service. Agile Project Portfolio Management agile project management Change management governance

2018 199

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Governance (#Governance). Six Business System Rule - defines the assessment of the integrated business systems for Federal procurement and their integrity in providing information to the Government contracting office. . Governance.

2003 45

Cost and Value Management for Software Development

Herding Cats

Since each of these elements operates in the presences of reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory) uncertainties, estimates are needed to make any credible decisions. . Software Project Cost Estimation . Of course in the presence of uncertainty, we need to make estimates.

2018 64

How good are you at starting off your project?

Ron Rosenhead

I came across an interesting report published by the National Audit Office (NAO) – which exists to provide independent opinion and evidence to assist Parliament and hold government to account. project management governance governance project project initiation project management

2015 206

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance Measures

2017 90

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. "A

2012 54

Agile for Project Managers

Herding Cats

NoEstimates Agile Estimating Governance Management Project ManagementI rarely republish other blogs or presentations. But this one is timeless and needs to be restated at every opportunity. I've corresponded with John over the years. Here's the presentation. . As well but John's books.

Agile 42

Project Versus Product in Agile Development

Herding Cats

So before listening to any conjecture about how agile should be done or not done - establish a context, a domain, a business and technical process, the external and internal business, technical, and financial governance process.

Agile 50

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . Buy a Software Estimating tool, like one of these.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible - we need to estimate the probability that the decision will be the right decision. The world as it will be requires estimating the future using a variety of means.

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . Buy a Software Estimating tool, like one of these.

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 64

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. We play this role in ERP acquisitions for commercial and government clients . Estimates of Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance compliance.

Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. Next comes an original post from Woody – “you can make decisions with No Estimates.”

2016 40

Software Development for the 21st Century

Herding Cats

NoEstimates Agile Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Principles Project Management Root Cause AnalysisAlistair Cockburn's talk on 21st Century Software development. .

2017 45

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were on of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . By simply NOT Estimating? All by NOT Estimating?

2018 42

Phrases Used for Technical Performance Measures

Herding Cats

For any system, estimates of future life-cycle costs are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The overall uncertainty is not only due to uncertainty in cost estimating methods, but also due to uncertainties in program or system definition or in technical performance.