Herding Cats

OCTOBER 11, 2016

I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. OMB A-11 Part 7.

Performance Measurement 28

Performance Measurement Aerospace 2006 Estimate 28

Herding Cats

APRIL 29, 2017

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes.

Estimate 46

Estimate Risk Management Risk SCRUM 46

Herding Cats

AUGUST 27, 2017

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

Estimate 46

Estimate Software Review Underperforming Technical Team Technical Review 46

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 19, 2018

The only answer to that is a measure of Physical Percent Complete (P%C). P%C starts with defining the Measures of Performance and Technical Performance Measures for each deliverable as a function of time. These measures are supported by Quantifiable Backup Data. What is your actual condition? .

2010 39

2010 Governance Government Performance Measurement 39

Herding Cats

OCTOBER 1, 2016

For software, this can be value produced (assuming we have a unit of measure for that value in the for of effectiveness, performance, key performance parameters, or technical performance measures ). It can be the cost, schedule, and technical performance measures of the software project. https://goo.gl/DP6Jw

Closing 28

Closing Estimate Controlling Process 28

International Institute for Learning

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Gap can also exist for performance improvement expectations such as: Reduction in risk by a certain percentage, cost, or time. Improvement in estimating accuracy by a certain percentage or dollar value. But we view the transitioning risk template as proprietary knowledge not to be shared.”.

Aerospace 59

Aerospace Underperforming Technical Team Governance Government 59

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 8, 2017

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable.

Performance Measurement 35

Performance Measurement Technical Review 2017 2008 35

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 5, 2017

We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. Our topic is Increasing the Probability of Program Success Thorugh Continuous Risk Management. . Risk-Adjusted Plans. Cost Impacts.

Aerospace 37

Aerospace Estimate Governance Government 37

Herding Cats

OCTOBER 12, 2018

In Earned Value Management paradigm, progress is always measured as physical percent complete. This physical percent complete is measured as compliance with the Technical Performance Measures of the outcomes of the work efforts, that consume the budget for that work. The Measures of Performance are.

Engineering 32

Engineering Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Risk Management 32

Herding Cats

AUGUST 12, 2017

Measures of Performance (MOP) – characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. These measures are attributes that assure the system has the capability and capacity to perform. Maintainability. Scalability. Availability.

Performance Measurement 39

Performance Measurement Estimate Risk Defining 39

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 4, 2017

The technical measures are a set of attributes used to provide the supplier (developer) and the acquirer (customer) with insight into the progress of the definition and development of the technical solution, the ongoing assessment of the associated risks and issues, and the likelihood of meeting the critical objectives of the acquirer (customer).

2005 37

2005 Performance Measurement Closing Controlling 37

Herding Cats

JUNE 19, 2017

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Measure of Effectiveness.

Technical Review 35

Technical Review Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 35

Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 9, 2018

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture.

Underperforming Technical Team 44

Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 2003 Software Review 44

Herding Cats

JANUARY 22, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. This is due to many reasons.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 4, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. This is due to many reasons.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Estimate 2005 Software Review 28

Herding Cats

JUNE 4, 2016

It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth. This is used in support of the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty. Technical Performance Measures. IT Risk Management. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote.

Software Engineering 28

Software Engineering Performance Measurement Finance Manufacturing 28

Herding Cats

JANUARY 17, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project. This is due to many reasons.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Herding Cats

JANUARY 14, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project. So the question is? -

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Software Review Underperforming Technical Team Risk Management 28

Herding Cats

JULY 9, 2018

Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Cost, Schedule, and these measures are tightly interconnected. No not to exceed budgets. Sage and Christopher D.

2001 31

2001 Software Estimate Performance Measurement 31

Herding Cats

AUGUST 12, 2016

Unrealistic performance expectations missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. Inadequate accessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Estimate 2003 Aerospace 28

Herding Cats

JULY 9, 2018

Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Cost, Schedule, and these measures are tightly interconnected. No not to exceed budgets. Sage and Christopher D.

2001 28

2001 Software Estimate Performance Measurement 28

Herding Cats

JUNE 4, 2017

The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Estimating how much is the starting point. Estimating is part of risk management.

Estimate 39

Estimate Risk Management Risk Engineering 39

Herding Cats

JANUARY 29, 2018

The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those three (and all) variables are random variables, usually driven by a stochastic process. In both cases, these create a risk to the success of the project.

Manufacturing 40

Manufacturing Estimate Risk Management Budget 40

Herding Cats

JANUARY 5, 2017

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Related articles. Doing the Math. Hope is not a Strategy. Complex, Complexity, Complicated.

Estimate 81

Estimate Closing Controlling Defining 81

Herding Cats

JUNE 9, 2018

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. Kirchler, D. Andersson, C. Sorensen, M.

Transportation 39

Transportation Software Engineering Finance 2011 39

Herding Cats

APRIL 16, 2019

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Project Performance Management (#PPM). Risk Management (#RM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Governance (#Governance).

Technical Review 42

Technical Review Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Governance 42

Herding Cats

JUNE 9, 2018

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. Kirchler, D. Andersson, C. Sorensen, M.

Transportation 28

Transportation Software Engineering Finance 2011 28

Herding Cats

JULY 17, 2017

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. This, of course, is nonsense, since estimates are about the past, present, and future.

Estimate 34

Estimate Logistics Performance Measurement Governance 34

Herding Cats

MARCH 11, 2018

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management.

Software Developers 34

Software Developers Software Development Risk Management Risk 34

Herding Cats

AUGUST 5, 2017

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway.

Risk Management 42

Risk Management Risk Estimate Underperforming Technical Team 42

Herding Cats

APRIL 30, 2019

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. We play this role in ERP acquisitions for commercial and government clients .

Software Review 41

Software Review Technical Review Engineering 2018 41

Workamajig

JANUARY 11, 2021

Accept: A response to a project risk where the project manager accepts the risk and takes no action to evade it, i.e. 'accepting' the risk. This is usually in case of risks that are unlikely to occur or minor enough so as to not affect the project's outcome. Actual dates are different from planned or estimated dates.

Underperforming Technical Team 78

Underperforming Technical Team Project Life Cycle Estimate Risk Management 78

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 29, 2017

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). .

Planning 42

Planning Software Review Governance Government 42

Epicflow Blog

OCTOBER 16, 2023

” Eli Schragenheim The lesson is: when you ask for a clear one-number estimation, without defining the level of common and expected uncertainty, then you either might face big surprises or face frequent occurrences, where the project/mission finished exactly on time. Carrying an Umbrella (Risk Buffer).

2016 52

2016 Monitoring Risk Management Healthcare 52

Herding Cats

JANUARY 23, 2018

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. Cost is measured in dollars and schedule is measured in time.

Technical Review 44

Technical Review Performance Measurement Engineering Estimate 44

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 5, 2018

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success.

Software Review 34

Software Review Technical Review Estimate Software Developers 34

Wrike

NOVEMBER 7, 2018

More than 90% of organizations perform some type of project postmortem or closeout retrospective. [9]. 64% of organizations say they frequently conduct risk management. [6]. How Project Success is Measured: 20% — Satisfied stakeholders. Managing small, low-risk projects. Managing medium-size, moderate-risk projects.

2015 60

2015 Technical Review Underperforming Technical Team Software Review 60