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Webinar Recap: Project Performance Measurement – Part 1: Overview Of Project Performance Measurements

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Fletcher Hearn’s session, Project Performance Measurement – Part 1: Overview Of Project Performance Measurements, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. Fletcher Hearns: What can be measured?

Phrases Used for Technical Performance Measures

Herding Cats

All project progress is measured independent of resources expended - Mr. Gary Bliss, Director Performance Assessment and Root Cause Analysis (PARCA), US Department of Defense. Call me when you find a customer who thinks it is cheaper to not plan and forecast the short, medium, and long term expected performance in exchange for a planned cost, delivered at the needed date to fulfill the business mission. Measuring progress must be in units meaningful to the decision maker.

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Webinar Recap: Project Performance Measurement – Part 2: What to Measure and How to Report

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Fletcher Hearn’s session, Project Performance Measurement – Part 2: What to Measure and How to Report, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. This one covering, What to Measure and How to Report.

Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

There is a current rash of suggestions on how to improve the performance of software projects. I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. Figure 1 - Planned Estimates versus Actual Performance from [1].

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes. The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. . Estimates. IT Risk Management.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management. Project Governance. Integrated Master Plan: The Foundation of Program Success , College of Performance Management, May 21, 2014. The Nine "I's" of Program Success ," College of Performance Management. Forming, Storming, Norming, Performing, and Adjourning. Project Performance Management. Building a Credible Performance Measurement Baseline. Risk Management. Governance.

2008 45

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Project Performance Management (#PPM). Risk Management (#RM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Governance (#Governance). The overarching theme is focused on defining what Done looks like, assessing progress toward Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.

2015 37

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance Measures

2017 69

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. Certain information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes are often unknown until the project is underway. The emerging risks that can be identified early in the project that impact the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” Risk management structure.

2017 37

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Root Cause Analysis is Risk Management, that asks the question what is the condition or activity that will create a risk to the success of our project? Were there: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance.

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

Herding Cats

We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. Our topic is Increasing the Probability of Program Success Thorugh Continuous Risk Management. . Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. If you are not managing risk on your project, what are you managing? Risk-Adjusted Plans. Inadequate Assessment of Risk.

2017 34

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. There are several partitions of this information that are common in building the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). In the #NoEstimates paradigm, the term estimate is redefined to be Forecast and relabeled as NOT Estimating.

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

No matter the project domain or the technical development method, project success is dependent on knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

2017 35

Connecting "What" with "How" - and the Failure to Understand the Principles of Systems Engineering and Systems Management

Herding Cats

Progress and Value are measured with the same in Earned Value Management. In Earned Value Management paradigm, progress is always measured as physical percent complete. This physical percent complete is measured as compliance with the Technical Performance Measures of the outcomes of the work efforts, that consume the budget for that work. The Measures of effectiveness. The Measures of Performance are. Key Performance Parameters.

Value First, Requires Margin and Contingency

Herding Cats

The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those three (and all) variables are random variables, usually driven by a stochastic process. In both cases, these create a risk to the success of the project. These risks - aleatory and epistemic - must be handled in some way if they are to not have an undesirable impact on the outcome of the project.

2018 36

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). . Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. Submitted - Formally submitted to the Government.

2017 37

INVEST, Scrum and Enterprise IT

Herding Cats

Risk interaction within systems and subsystems, between functional and physical elements, can also be modeled with DSM. DSM models interacting risks in a graphical representation produce numerical simulations of the risk and impacts on the probability of program success. Besides the process, software, and User Experience modeling of the interdependent components, Risk Management and most critically Risk Propagation can be modeled with DSM.

2018 31

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

2017 32

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Estimating how much is the starting point. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

2017 35

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

INVEST, Scrum and Enterprise IT

Herding Cats

Risk interaction within systems and subsystems, between functional and physical elements, can also be modeled with DSM. DSM models interacting risks in a graphical representation produce numerical simulations of the risk and impacts on the probability of program success. Besides the process, software, and User Experience modeling of the interdependent components, Risk Management and most critically Risk Propagation can be modeled with DSM.

2018 28

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

For software, this can be value produced (assuming we have a unit of measure for that value in the for of effectiveness, performance, key performance parameters, or technical performance measures ). For your Honeywell or Nest controller on the wall, that sample rate is measured in seconds. It can be the cost, schedule, and technical performance measures of the software project.

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 32

3 Questions That Must Be Asked at Every Project Management Meeting

Herding Cats

In the ConOps are measures of Effectiveness for the components of the project that implement the Capabilities . The only answer to that is a measure of Physical Percent Complete (P%C). P%C starts with defining the Measures of Performance and Technical Performance Measures for each deliverable as a function of time. These measures are supported by Quantifiable Backup Data. Risk Management is Project Management for Adults - Tim Lister.

2018 35

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The Cone is NOT the result of the project's past performance.

2017 33

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. This is done by active risk management, through probabalistic decision-making.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The Cone is NOT the result of the project's past performance.

2017 28

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. There are cost people, scheduling people, risk people, EVM people, engineers, testers, and others on any program. Cost is measured in dollars and schedule is measured in time. IT Risk Management.

2018 38

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project.

2017 30

The Problems with Schedules

Herding Cats

Unrealistic performance expectations missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. Inadequate accessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans. Before diving into the details of these, let me address another issue that has come up around project success and estimates. Just the estimate.

2016 42

Software Intensive System of Systems

Herding Cats

If a system of systems is disassembled into the component systems, these component systems are capable of independently performing useful operations independently of one another. The system of systems performs functions and carries out purposes that do not reside in any component system. Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.

2001 30

What's Missing from the Agile Software Development Paradigm

Herding Cats

The customer is accountable for knowing what Done Looks Like (in Unity of measure meaningful to their domain). The results include system-level qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behavior, and performance. Systems Engineering assess the processes for achieving stakeholder functional, physical, and operational performance requirements in the intended use environment over the planned life of the system within cost, schedule, and internal and external constraints.

Software Intensive System of Systems

Herding Cats

If a system of systems is disassembled into the component systems, these component systems are capable of independently performing useful operations independently of one another. The system of systems performs functions and carries out purposes that do not reside in any component system. Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.

2001 28

Is Macroeconomics and Social Science the Same as Software Development?

Herding Cats

In our domain this is the Performance Measurement Baseline, which is a time-phased budget plan for accomplishing work against which contract performance is measured. If it's knowable, doesn't means it's known, but standard Risk Management has the means to deal with knowns and know unknowns - both reducible and irreducible. IT Risk Management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects.

2016 36

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic.

Project Management Process: The Basics

Clarizen

Monitoring & Controlling : processes required to track, assess, and regulate project performance and progress, as well as identify and initiate changes as necessary. . Risk management plan. Performance measurement baseline. Work performance data.

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture. The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. IT Risk Management.

2018 39