Influencing the eternal optimism of a delivery team

Kiron Bondale

If it is a team which regularly completes more work than was forecast, this could be the result of traditional management oversight causing team members to act very cautiously when estimating their work. When I teach agile fundamentals classes, I frequently emphasize the importance of inspection and adaptation. Teams which don’t use feedback loops with their products and their processes should not consider themselves to be very agile.

Can Project Duration Estimation be done without Assumptions?

MPUG

That is why duration estimation is one of the most important aspects of project management. In most real life scenarios, clients and mangers are reasonable, giving us some freedom to determine duration estimates for doing our tasks, but this can create other problems. The Estimation Problem. You might hear from the client that the estimates look high. You might explain why you believe the estimates are reasonable based on underlying assumptions. Exact Estimates.

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Your Guide to Accurately Estimating Projects

LiquidPlanner

Estimation is an invaluable tool for anticipating and managing project uncertainties. Accurate project estimates help identify cost and schedule requirements with relative precision, and reduce the risk of running out of time, resources, and budget during a project. But even with years of experience, project managers struggle with accurate project estimates. It’s easier to estimate in ranges because it alleviates the pressure of not meeting a single-point estimate.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

Cost Estimating Assessment Criteria

Herding Cats

Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Documents all cost-influence ground rules and assumptions. Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Cost Estimating

The Ultimate Guide to Estimating Projects: How to use time tracking (and experience) to set better estimates

Planio

Despite our best intentions, human beings are terrible at estimating how long a project or task will take to complete. Most major project management issues can be traced back to poor time estimates. Poor estimating. Poor estimating. You guessed it, poor estimating.

Webinar Recap: Analogous and Parametric Estimating Schedule Template

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Oliver Gildersleeve’s Analogous and Parametric Estimating Schedule Template webinar being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. The new schedule template covers both analogous and parametric estimating features.

Governance and Estimating

Herding Cats

Authority to influence behaviours. make use of estimates in their decision support processes. To suggest Not Estimating can be the basis of those decision making process is to willfully ignore these principles. If your business is not subject to any external governance process, you’re free to spend your money as you please.

Guessing and Bayes

Musings on Project Management

In my posting prior to this one, I gave an example of two probabilities influencing yet a third. To do that, I assumed a probability for "A" and I assumed a probability for "B", both of which jointly influence "C". Bayes estimate Risk Management StatisticsBut, I gave no evidence that either of these assumptions was "calibrated" by prior experience.I just guessedWhat if I just guessed about "A" and "B" without any calibrated evidence to.

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How to Influence Personal Productivity of Your Team Members

ActiveCollab

The easiest way to keep track of the time each employee spends on their tasks is to encourage them to make their own Time Estimates for each task. Once your team employees have created their time estimates, and started tracking time spent on the tasks, you will be able to view their timelines in Team-Timeline Report and keep an eye on who does what. It lets you group tasks by an assignee and sees estimated vs tracked time for each task.

Creating a Risk-Adjusted Backlog

Leading Answers

While profit is not their goal, usually an economic impact figure can be estimated for the outcomes they aim to achieve. Some might have to be escalated to other stakeholders to get the benefits, and a final category may have to be ignored if we cannot influence them.

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Project Management Life Cycle-Iterative & Adaptive

iZenBridge

We can say the life cycle is quite foretelling like technology is proven; the team is matured in estimation techniques. According to the PMBOK® Guide Sixth Edition : “Iterative Life Cycle: A project life cycle where the project scope is generally determined early in the project life cycle, but time and cost estimates are routinely modi?ed Organizational Influences and Project Life Cycle PMP adaptive life cycle life cycle pmp Predictive Life Cycle project life cycle

Playing in the Gray of Hybrid

Leading Answers

We can try to educate stakeholders on why a more adaptive approach toward these operations might be beneficial, but maybe this is beyond our circle of influence—or maybe we inherited a project with a scope and budget already in place.

2020 85

PMP interview Questions

iZenBridge

What are organizational influences? What are different cost estimation techniques? Did you involved in make or buy decision and end up with wrong estimation? Domain Based. What is a baseline, how is it use while creating project management plan? Explain with examples. What is a project charter? Is project manager involved in the creation of a project charter? What is a project, how is it different from a program, and a portfolio?

2019 40

New PM: The What?, Why?, and How? of Project Charters

Leading Answers

The most common source of late project completions is not poor estimating or a lack of risk management, it is late starts. They may also have been terrible at estimating and blind to common threats, but late starts are very common. The uncertainty associated with our estimates needs to be reflected (to some degree) in our schedule. This is important—the scope of people who may influence development is wide. Agile Project Management Estimating Planning Risk Management

2019 78

10 Ways to Engage Project Stakeholders

Project Risk Coach

Which stakeholders have the most power and influence? Let’s look at some practical ways that you can better engage and influence your project stakeholders at the right times in your project lifecycle. Engage your stakeholders in the estimates.

2019 278

The allure of #NoEstimates

Kiron Bondale

How should I deal with a stakeholder who, when I provide a rough order of magnitude ranged estimate early in the life of a project, insists on holding me accountable to the lower end of that range later on even when sufficient evidence has emerged to contradict that value?

2021 193

Have You Left Anything Out of Your Project Management Plan?

Project Risk Coach

Project Stakeholder Management Plan Define how you will identify and record stakeholders, interest, needs, power, and influence. Have you left anything out of your project management plan?

2021 318

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. Estimating and Reporting Agile Projects using the SRDR and Earned Value Management , PSM Users Group 2017, 12-16 June 2017, Crystal City, VA. Estimating and Reporting Physical Percent Complete on Agile Projects , DHS Cost Analysis Stakeholder Working Group, June 26, 2017. How Should We Estimate Agile Software Development Projects and What Data Do We Need ?, Basis of Estimate Process.

2008 45

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

Consequence, nature of influencing factors, size of influencing factors, effects and interactions between influencing factors (variability and timing), nature and significance of assumptions made. In order to make decisions in presence of uncertainty, we need to estimate all the partially elements of the decision process. Withoitn these estimates thetre is no Risk Management. NoEstimates Books Estimating Risk

Risk 41

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

40 - Estimation is a Problematic Practice of Companies Doing Dangerous Things. A #Noestimates advocate makes the claim that having a ±10% accuracy for estimates of cost and duration is a dangerous thing. With what appears to be NO understanding of how to estimate, this author ignores the processes used in developing products or services in the presence of uncertainty. Define the probabilistic ranges of the work in a single point estimate manner. All by NOT Estimating?

2019 37

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

Yet another class #NoEstimates lack of understanding of estimating, reference class forecasting, reference class databases, parametric estimating, estimating tools, and other well established estimating processes in the agile software development world. maybe a read of the resources of Estimating Agile Software Development may help. Subscribe to one of several reference class estimating sites. Buy a Software Estimating tool, like one of these.

2019 34

Risk Management with Microsoft Project

MPUG

Schedule Risk Analysis – Incorporating information from the ‘Risk Register’ into the schedule where the ‘ Risks ’ will impact schedule and/or cost and taking Estimate Uncertainty into consideration. This is true even if, on average, execution is completed in the estimated time frames.

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DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

These are classic examples from an author who is either unskilled, untrained, and inexperienced in estimating software development. Or who willfully ignores the knowledge and resources readily available in textbooks, papers, tools, and training for how to create credible estimates for software systems. What these quotes actually say is I have no intention of learning how to estimate cost, schedule, and technical performance because I don't want to. By simply NOT Estimating?

2018 33

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Cost and schedule growth for federal programs is created by unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, all contributing to program technical and programmatic shortfalls. The starting point is understanding what processes make up the discipline of estimating.

2015 37

Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

Herding Cats

Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. Macroeconomics is the study of how people make decisions influenced by tax rates, interest rates, foreign policy, and trade policy. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions.

2018 39

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

The programmatic risks are within the control or influence of the Program Management or Program Executive Office, through managerial actions applied to the work activities contained in the Integrated Master Schedule. risks that originate outside the program office or are not within the control or influence of the Program Manager or Program Executive Office. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. NoEstimates Estimating Risk Root Cause Analysis

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Estimation is pretentious rationalism, where rationalism does not serve us well (extremistan)(sic) Take only risks you can survive. The use of estimating in software development project mandates those estimates be updated with actual performance data to have any credibility in the construction of the Estimate to Complete and Estimate at Completion. And updates to the estimates are needed when the system evolves to its next state.

2017 36

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Although each uncertainty type is distinct, a single project may encounter some combination of four types: Variation – comes from many small influences and yields a range of values on a particular activity. Foreseen Uncertainty – are uncertainties identifiable and understood influences that the team cannot be sure will occur. The answers to each of these questions require making estimates in the presence of uncertainty. No Point Estimate of Cost or Duration can be Correct.

2017 37

10 Ways to Keep Your Project Stakeholders Happy

Project Risk Coach

Which stakeholders have the most power and influence? Let’s look at some practical ways that you can better engage and influence your project stakeholders at the right times in your project lifecycle. Engage your stakeholders in the estimates. Ask the people that will do the work for estimates. And help stakeholders to understand that there is greater uncertainty in the early estimates. Commit to providing refined estimates as your projects progress.

2018 163

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk. risks that originate outside the program office or are not within the control or influence of the Program Manager or Program Executive Office.

2007 32

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Uncertainty about the basis of estimate for cost, schedule, and technical performance. Complexity in terms of the number of influencing factors and the number of interdependencies. To manage in the presence of these uncertainties, we must make estimates of the probabilistic and statistical behaviors both the reducible and irreducible risk created by the uncertainties. . NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating Management Principles Quotes Risk Scheduling

2018 31

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. It is not the Estimates that are non-ergodic.

Use and Misuse of Statistics of Process Improvement Studies

Herding Cats

Were any contingencies in place in the study that may have influenced the observations? Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis. Are Estimates Really The Smell of Dysfunction? NoEstimates Decision Making EstimatingThere are several studies on how software development can be improved by applying various process. Some studies have very large data sets, with analysis of each process and the differences between the processes.

2017 30

Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

Macroeconomics is the study of how people make decisions influenced by tax rates, interest rates foreign policy, and trade policy. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. No Estimates?

2017 36

Value, Cost and Business Decision Making

Herding Cats

The best choice depends on our type of business, what influences our customers to buy and the nature of our competition. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. NoEstimates Business Decision Making Estimating Fallacy of the Week Governance Logical Fallacy Management Planning Principles Product Management Project ManagementIn Software Value of something is totally unrelated to Cost.

2018 34

INVEST, Scrum and Enterprise IT

Herding Cats

The direction of influence from one element to another is captured by an arrow in place of a simple link. In the presence of uncertainty, estimates is needed to make decisions. NoEstimates Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Planning Principles Product Management Project Management Requirements Strategy Systems Theory Technical Performance MeasuresThe term INVEST is an acronym for good User Stories. I ndependent (of all others).

2018 31

AI in Project Management: An Interview with Lloyd Skinner

Girl's Guide to PM

Greyfly might be unique in what it offers but it certainly isn’t alone in how it’s approaching the challenge of using project data and new technologies to influence project success rates. Lloyd Skinner. Where is artificial intelligence taking project management?

2021 415

Overcoming bias in project management

Girl's Guide to PM

Since good decision-making is critical for good leadership and guidance, project managers need to know how heuristics (mental disposition) and biases (personal inclinations) influence a project manager’s decisions. This is a guest post by Roland Hoffmann.

2020 386