Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

There is a current rash of suggestions on how to improve the performance of software projects. I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. References below. . And there are many other examples (see references).

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer.


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Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Performance Management (#PPM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). The overarching theme is focused on defining what Done looks like, assessing progress toward Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Those units always start with Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Project Performance Management.

2015 37

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Were there: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. Key Performance Parameters. Past Performance is the 1st question - have you done this before and if so, were your efforts successful?

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. It is essential that the IMP represent the work that must be performed. If the IMP is being prepared as part of a proposal, then the Request for Proposal (RFP) and RFP attachments will be the primary documents to define the work to be performed. To demonstrate traceability most IMPs include cross-reference fields for WBS, OBS, and SOW.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

AHP is based on the principle that all measurements are relative. AHP provides a framework to make relative comparisons using a rational decision structure based on scaled pairwise comparisons (Borda Ranking) using a scale that converts stakeholder preferences and priorities into ratio measures. Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another. References . [1]

2018 40

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

What is the Management Reserve for Project Budgets?

Project Risk Coach

Let's explore management reserves for projects, who controls them, and how to estimate the reserves. Why Reserves are Needed During the course of a project, you and your project team identify risks which are referred to as known/unknown risks.

2021 247

9 Types of Artifacts in Project Management

Girl's Guide to PM

You might also here artifacts referred to as templates, documents, outputs or deliverables, but in all cases they relate to the work of managing the project, not the thing you are creating as the output of the project.

2021 331

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. Currently, there is no single frame of reference to view the discipline, because it is multi-disciplinary. Cost is measured in dollars and schedule is measured in time.

2018 38

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture. The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager.

2018 39

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

All making things smaller dos is show that you're late, over budget, and what you're building (Technical Performance Measures) doesn't work faster. But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. No References? A Beginners Guide to Uncertainty of Measurement , Stephanie Bell, National Physics Laboratory, 1999. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

2003 38

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. Do we have measures of Effectiveness, Performance, all the .ilities. Is each of these measures being met for the planned cost at the planned time? . Why did the estimates NOT get better?

Project Management Process: The Basics


While it is a safe bet that Mr. Deming was not specifically or exclusively referring to the overall project management process, his wise advice – or if you wish, his stark warning – certainly applies. Performance measurement baseline. Work performance data.

2021 90

What's Missing from the Agile Software Development Paradigm

Herding Cats

The customer is accountable for knowing what Done Looks Like (in Unity of measure meaningful to their domain). The results include system-level qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behavior, and performance. Systems Engineering assess the processes for achieving stakeholder functional, physical, and operational performance requirements in the intended use environment over the planned life of the system within cost, schedule, and internal and external constraints.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk. risks that may prevent the end item from performing as intended or not meeting performance expectations.

2007 32

Different Project Management Terms Beginners Should Know

ProProfs Project Management

It refers to a set of methodologies utilized to meet the ever-changing client requirements. An assumption in project management refers to assuming about possible factors or situations that may occur in the project planning process that it may actually happen. Cost Estimation.

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. It is not the Estimates that are non-ergodic.

The Complete Glossary of 614 Project Management Terms


Bookmark this project management glossary and refer to it whenever you come across any project management jargon. Each 'activity' is the smallest unit of work that can be performed within the scope of the project. Actual dates are different from planned or estimated dates.

2021 78

Earned Value Management (EVM) in Agile Development


At the start of each iteration, he may be unsure about the applicability of earned value analysis, measurement, and management within Agile. With frequent scope changes, how does one determine what to measure against? Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). References. [1]

2020 56

Project Management Glossary: 200+ Terms PMs Frequently Use

Epicflow Blog

Activity Duration Estimates Review . is a process of detecting risks related to the time allowances for activities in particular or a project in general, with the width of estimates range indicating a respective level of risk. It contains all the details about the tasks a project team has to perform. . Analogous Estimating . is a process of appointing or providing a team member with a responsibility to perform a task. Bottom-Up Estimating .

Project Management Glossary: 200+ Terms PMs Frequently Use

Epicflow Blog

Activity Duration Estimates Review . is a process of detecting risks related to the time allowances for activities in particular or a project in general, with the width of estimates range indicating a respective level of risk. It contains all the details about the tasks a project team has to perform. . Analogous Estimating . is a process of appointing or providing a team member with a responsibility to perform a task. Bottom-Up Estimating .

Invoking "Laws" Without a Domain or Context

Herding Cats

Newton's Law(s), there are three of them: First law: When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by a net force. Second law: In an inertial reference frame, the vector sum of the forces F on an object is equal to the mass m of that object multiplied by the acceleration vector a of the object: F = ma. Without setting a target to measure against, we have: No baseline control.

2016 36

Applying Project Management Concepts in Real-life Projects


In such projects, since we are using progressive planning, we usually don’t compare progress against baseline.Other types of measurements could be used here such as: What was the plan? So, while the reports and measurement systems may compare against budget, it is not as simple as comparing the earned value against first baseline as baselines are getting revised. In such cases, your baseline varies as your estimations get refined.