Analogous and Parametric Estimating

MPUG

can become an accurate estimating tool for top-down (Analogous) and bottom-up (Parametric) estimating. With accurate estimates, a Risk Reserve, an Estimating Uncertainty Buffer, and appropriate updating, a leveled schedule can provide a realistic and feasible current forecast of the delivery date for products and services, as well as a realistic basis for impact analysis of issues and change-requests. Using a Schedule Template for Estimating. Happy estimating!

Project Estimation: Master the Tools and Techniques

Online PM Courses

There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. So, in this article, we’ll take a careful look at project estimation, to help you learn how to master the art and craft of doing it well. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge. Methods and Tools for Project Estimation.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Reference Class Forecasting

Herding Cats

Talking with the moving van owner, he started telling stories about estimating the load in pounds. The agent makes the first estimate of the weight of the load, issues a quote for the cost of the move. The quality of the estimate depends on the skill and experience of the estimator. The reference class estimating process is part of that skill and experience. I relistened to Agile for Humans podcast with Steve McConnell about estimating.

Project Estimation Techniques Everyone Needs To Know

Wrike

Project estimation techniques help project managers accurately estimate essential elements, such as cost and scope , within their projects. What are project estimation techniques? An estimate is a rough calculation of something. Why are project estimates important?

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Analogous Estimation Vs Parametric Estimation

iZenBridge

As a Project Manager, doing project ESTIMATION is a key responsibility but how often are we able to deliver the project under budgeted cost and time? What will help in this scenario would be the right understanding of estimation tools and techniques. There are many techniques for project estimation like Bottom-Up Estimation, Parametric Estimation and Analogous Estimation. To start with, let’s understand Analogous Estimation, what exactly does it mean?

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

The Ultimate Guide to Estimating Projects: How to use time tracking (and experience) to set better estimates

Planio

Despite our best intentions, human beings are terrible at estimating how long a project or task will take to complete. Most major project management issues can be traced back to poor time estimates. Poor estimating. Poor estimating. You guessed it, poor estimating.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts — education, experience, and skill are needed. No credible decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the cost, schedule, and technical performance of that decision. How and when to re-estimate.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value.

10 Point Checklist for Better Project Estimates

Planview

The following content is based on the whitepaper, “Bigger Than a Breadbox: 10 Tips for Better Project Estimates, Part 2,” written by Jerry Manas. From all the previous six parts of this series, it should be clear that effective estimation is a primary driver of project success, resource planning, and portfolio alignment. Part 1: Improve Project Estimates and Escape Crisis Mode. Use Horizon-Based Estimates. Part 2: Improving Project Estimates is all About Direction.

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Herding Cats

Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Any estimating process requires discipline and repeatability to produce accurate and precise results. The estimate can also be produced parametrically, empirically, or through a modeling and simulation.

Three Point Estimate Formulas

PM by PM

Quick Reference on Three Point Estimate I have written a series of articles on Three Point Estimate and related concepts. I have explained the basic concept of Three Point Estimate in my first article. The post Three Point Estimate Formulas appeared first on PM-by-PM. Cost Management Project Management Time Management 3 point estimate formulas Project Estimation

2015 30

How relative estimates can help you play the stakeholders game

Scrum.org

Still plenty of teams use hourly estimates for complex work. Relative estimation: takes less time, focuses on team collaboration i.o. Teams are still often required to give cost estimates, as well as do billing on actual hours spend. “Better roughly right, than precisely wrong”.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. Just for the reference, . Just for the reference, a commitment is the state or quality of being dedicated to a cause, activity, etc. But that's got NOTHING to do with the need for the estimate and EVERYTHING to do with bad management.

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

How Relative Estimates Can Help you Play the Stakeholders Game

Scrum.org

Plenty of teams still use hourly estimates for complex work. Relative estimation: takes less time, focuses on team collaboration i.o. Teams are still often required to give cost estimates, as well as do billing on actual hours spend. “Better roughly right, than precisely wrong”.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Agile encourages change, but those changes must be recorded so a reference class can be built of time. Agile Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis SchedulingThese describe the increasing maturity of the project's artifacts. There are not specific to Agile Software Development.

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Without estimating the delivered value to the business for the estimated cost and time to delivery that value, the balance sheet will be wholly uninformed about when the breakeven date for this expenditure.

Creating a Risk-Adjusted Backlog

Leading Answers

While profit is not their goal, usually an economic impact figure can be estimated for the outcomes they aim to achieve. Visualizing and agreeing on a spatial reference for the risks and opportunities also engages the right hemisphere of the brain and makes us less likely to forget them.

2021 78

Forecasting versus Estimating - are they Different or are they the Same

Herding Cats

One of the escape clauses of #Noestimates is to re-label Forecasting as NOT Estimating , It is forecasting, based on empirical data. This is in comparison for estimating purpose for a theoretical model that produces data, parametric from empirical or theoretical models that produce data. In all cases the data is used to estimate some outcome in the past, present, or future. When that estimate is about the future, it can also be referred to as a Forecast.

2016 34

What is the Management Reserve for Project Budgets?

Project Risk Coach

Let's explore management reserves for projects, who controls them, and how to estimate the reserves. Why Reserves are Needed During the course of a project, you and your project team identify risks which are referred to as known/unknown risks.

2021 195

New PM: The What?, Why?, and How? of Project Charters

Leading Answers

It may reference a separate business case or return on investment analysis. The most common source of late project completions is not poor estimating or a lack of risk management, it is late starts. They may also have been terrible at estimating and blind to common threats, but late starts are very common. The uncertainty associated with our estimates needs to be reflected (to some degree) in our schedule. Agile Project Management Estimating Planning Risk Management

2019 78

Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. References below. . This is from one of our presentations from a International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association meeting on the same topic.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

To make sensible decisions, in the presence of uncertainty - reducible and irreducible - we need to estimate the probability that the decision will be the right decision. The world as it will be requires estimating the future using a variety of means. From past data used to construct a reference class forecast to Monte Carlo Simulation (and similar) methods using a model of the future to assess the possible outcomes. .

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

This knowledge starts with Reference Class Forecasting which is a method of predicting the future (cost, schedule, technical performance) by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of an action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Where do you find these Reference Classes ? . Your domain may have NO reference classes. link] Cost Estimating Tools.

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

40 - Estimation is a Problematic Practice of Companies Doing Dangerous Things. A #Noestimates advocate makes the claim that having a ±10% accuracy for estimates of cost and duration is a dangerous thing. With what appears to be NO understanding of how to estimate, this author ignores the processes used in developing products or services in the presence of uncertainty. Define Reference Classes for those Capabilities and the Features that implement them. References.

What Are Story Points and How They Be Used on Agile Projects?

Herding Cats

Story points are a unit of measure for expressing an estimate of the overall effort that will be required to fully implement a product backlog item or any other piece of work. When we estimate with story points, we assign a point value to each item. It should also be two-thirds of a story that is estimated as 3 story points. Here are some benefits to using Story Points for estimating from Maarten Dalmijn's Medium post. Quickly estimate issues.

2019 34

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. His early estimate — an analogous estimate — was $125,000 with a range of accuracy between -25 percent to +50 percent. John shared the estimate with the sponsor and said that he would provide a more detailed estimate after completing a work breakdown structure (WBS) with the project team. Ask for estimates from the people doing the work.

2017 210

#Noestimates Has Come to This

Herding Cats

So the first part is following standard estimating principles. which states clearly and concisely that decisions can be made (in the presence of uncertainty - which is ALWAYS present on software development projects - without estimating the impact of those decisions. Past performance, reference classes, parametric models, Monte Carlo simulation, method of moments , and other estimating processes are standard practice. Does that mean we don't need estimating? .

2017 33

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture. The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager.

2018 39

Real Options and Decision Making for ICT Projects

Herding Cats

Estimation locks down choices early through upfront t decision making, #NoEstimates preserves options. A real option is a choice made available with business investment opportunities, referred to as “real” because it typically references a tangible asset instead of a financial instrument. The term flexibility in the Real Options paradigm refers to the capability of responding to a change or new situation. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2008 31

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

These are classic examples from an author who is either unskilled, untrained, and inexperienced in estimating software development. Or who willfully ignores the knowledge and resources readily available in textbooks, papers, tools, and training for how to create credible estimates for software systems. What these quotes actually say is I have no intention of learning how to estimate cost, schedule, and technical performance because I don't want to. By simply NOT Estimating?

2018 33

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Here's some reading to help understand why its bunk and how to learn to estimate in the presence of uncertainty in order to make better decisions. Software Estimating Taxonomy. Estimating Accuracy.

2016 35

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

There are databases, reference class databases, parametric models, functional point analysis processes - all used to estimate to cost of IT projects. NoEstimates Estimating QuotesIf we can compute probability on a satellite that’s never flown before, we can compute project success in IT - Douglas Hubbard. IT does have a repeatable history, and if you’re not willing to include that in your analysis, you may as well just flip a coin.

2018 33

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days. Or perhaps as an estimate with two-point ranges. Each work activity in a discrete model will have an estimated duration - a scalar number, usually measured in days.

2018 38

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. In many cases, once the estimates have been made (at proposal or authorization to proceed), recalibrate and reduction the uncertainty of the initial estimates is not always performed. Why did the estimates NOT get better? References.