Beware false accuracy with quantitative risk assessment

Kiron Bondale

If you view an advertisement touting multiple benefits of a product with which you’ve had no previous personal experience and are later asked about the risks associated with its use, you are likely to state that it is less risky even though there is no connection between its benefits and risks.

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Risk Analysis 101: How to Analyze Project Risk

ProjectManager.com

Before you’re able to analyze the risk in your project, you have to acknowledge that risk is going to happen in your project. By planning for risks, you begin the process of knowing how to identify, monitor and close out risks when they show up in your project.

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Analogous and Parametric Estimating

MPUG

can become an accurate estimating tool for top-down (Analogous) and bottom-up (Parametric) estimating. Unfortunately, the large majority of project managers estimate tasks with durations and update tasks by entering %-complete as reported by team members. Happy estimating!

Creating a Risk-Adjusted Backlog

Leading Answers

This article explains what a risk-adjusted backlog is, why they are useful, how to create one and how teams work with them. What is a Risk-Adjusted Backlog? While profit is not their goal, usually an economic impact figure can be estimated for the outcomes they aim to achieve.

2021 78

Risk Management Plan Example (Comprehensive Guide+Tempalte)

PM Basics

In this article, you’ll find the real-life project risk management plan example. Below the example, you’ll find all the required information and resources to create your Risk Management Plan quickly and for free. Risk Management Plan Definition.

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Project Estimation: Master the Tools and Techniques

Online PM Courses

There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. So, in this article, we’ll take a careful look at project estimation, to help you learn how to master the art and craft of doing it well. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge. Methods and Tools for Project Estimation.

Project Estimation Techniques Everyone Needs To Know

Wrike

Project estimation techniques help project managers accurately estimate essential elements, such as cost and scope , within their projects. What are project estimation techniques? An estimate is a rough calculation of something. Why are project estimates important?

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

RBS is one more technique for your estimation tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Take a course covering agile delivery and you’ll learn about relative sizing techniques such as estimating poker or t-shirt sizing. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. Paradigm of agile project management from Glen Alleman. .

Analogous Estimation Vs Parametric Estimation

iZenBridge

As a Project Manager, doing project ESTIMATION is a key responsibility but how often are we able to deliver the project under budgeted cost and time? What will help in this scenario would be the right understanding of estimation tools and techniques. There are many techniques for project estimation like Bottom-Up Estimation, Parametric Estimation and Analogous Estimation. Comparative details of Analogous and Parametric Estimation.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. Those making these claims may have their own personal purposes, their own agenda, their own reasons for sell this idea that estimates are somehow no longer needed when we're spending other people's money to produce value in exchange for that money. Managing in the presence of uncertainty is standard business practice.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

The Ultimate Guide to Estimating Projects: How to use time tracking (and experience) to set better estimates

Planio

Despite our best intentions, human beings are terrible at estimating how long a project or task will take to complete. Most major project management issues can be traced back to poor time estimates. Poor estimating. Poor estimating. You guessed it, poor estimating.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. This would be like saying, risk management is a waste , control system engineering is a waste, thermal analysis of the computer system is a waste, assessment of the reliability, repairability, survivability - all the.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

2003 38

10 Point Checklist for Better Project Estimates

Planview

The following content is based on the whitepaper, “Bigger Than a Breadbox: 10 Tips for Better Project Estimates, Part 2,” written by Jerry Manas. From all the previous six parts of this series, it should be clear that effective estimation is a primary driver of project success, resource planning, and portfolio alignment. Part 1: Improve Project Estimates and Escape Crisis Mode. Use Horizon-Based Estimates. Part 2: Improving Project Estimates is all About Direction.

Reasons to Estimate and Measure

Herding Cats

Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Any estimating process requires discipline and repeatability to produce accurate and precise results. The estimate can also be produced parametrically, empirically, or through a modeling and simulation.

What is the Management Reserve for Project Budgets?

Project Risk Coach

Unforeseen risks knock at your door. You look at your budget, but you don't have the funds to respond to these risks. Let's explore management reserves for projects, who controls them, and how to estimate the reserves. These risks have not been identified.

2021 247

Small Batch Sizes are NOT Risk Management

Herding Cats

There is a popular fallacy in the Agile community that small batch sizes are Risk Management. What small batches do is provide information that informs risk management at a fast rate. This approach is a closed loop control system, where the estimates work (in your choice of ordinal units) is the starting point. As the work progresses the TO DO value goes from the original estimate to the new estimate to complete. IT Risk Management.

Risk 36

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. All Management decision should take uncertainty into account. Sometime the implcations of uncertanty are risk in the sense of significant potential unwlecome effects on orgainzation performance. .

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Webinar Recap: Risk Management Life Cycle in the Context of Project, Program, and Portfolio

MPUG

Please find below a transcription of the audio portion of Satya N Dash’ session, Risk Management Life Cycle in the Context of Project, Program, and Portfolio, being provided by MPUG for the convenience of our members. Satya N Dash: So first, the framework for risk management.

2021 52

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk. Agile is a participant in Risk Management, but Agile is NOT Risk Management. . Risk Management has 6 processes, see SEI Continuous Risk Management.

How relative estimates can help you play the stakeholders game

Scrum.org

Still plenty of teams use hourly estimates for complex work. Relative estimation: takes less time, focuses on team collaboration i.o. Teams are still often required to give cost estimates, as well as do billing on actual hours spend. Think risk, effort, complexity.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. IT Risk Management.

9 Types of Artifacts in Project Management

Girl's Guide to PM

In this article we’ll look at the types of artifacts in project management, typical documents for each type. In project management, artifacts relate to documents: the project documentation you produce that defines and supports the work you are doing.

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Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. Just for the reference, . Just for the reference, a commitment is the state or quality of being dedicated to a cause, activity, etc. But that's got NOTHING to do with the need for the estimate and EVERYTHING to do with bad management.

Aleatory Uncertainty Creates Irreducible Risk

Herding Cats

Yesterday's Post Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk and What Is Risk? Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes in two kinds for all projects, for everything actually. Epistemic uncertainty and the risk it creates can be reduced with handling processes. The objective of identifying and managing aleatory uncertainty to be preparing to handle the impacts when risk is realized.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

If we look at the discipline of software engineering, we see that the microeconomics branch of economics deals more with the types of decisions we need to make as software engineers or managers. When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives.

2007 32

Everyone is a Project Manager!

Arras People

Project Management appears to be everywhere too! Big pictures, create interesting scenarios and it would appear that this is driving the situation where “everybody” wants a piece of the project management pie; but is this a good thing? The post Everyone is a Project Manager!

2021 223

The Five Laws of Software Estimating are Wrong

Herding Cats

There's a blog post from a few years back that has resurfaced The 5 Laws of Software Estimates. Law of Software Estimating. Fact of Software Estimating. Estimates are waste. To those paying the developers, estimates provide actionable information needed to make decisions: Can we afford to develop this feature? Estimates are non-transferrable . Its claimed Software estimates are not fungible. Estimates are Wrong. Estimates are NOT Guesses.

The 10 Project Management Knowledge Areas (PMBOK)

ProjectManager.com

What do you need to know to succeed at project management? While there’s some truth to that joke, it’s not helpful to the student or the experienced professional who is looking for a way to understand the myriad responsibilities of being a project manager. Project Scope Management.

2019 406

How Relative Estimates Can Help you Play the Stakeholders Game

Scrum.org

Plenty of teams still use hourly estimates for complex work. Relative estimation: takes less time, focuses on team collaboration i.o. Teams are still often required to give cost estimates, as well as do billing on actual hours spend. Think risk, effort, complexity.

Risk, Their Sources, and Handling Strategies

Herding Cats

Risk identification during early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to identify events and circumstances that challenge program performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimates are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. This is sometimes labeled an Unknowable Risk. Separating Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty for Risk Management .

Project Crashing in Project Management: Definition & Best Practices

ProjectManager.com

There’s never enough time when managing a project. Project managers don’t have the luxury to quote poems to stakeholders when going off track. It could refer to spending more money to get things done faster. What Prompts Crashing in Project Management?

2020 340

A Step-By-Step Guide to Improving Your Resource Management

The IIL Blog

Project Managers and their teams carry out planned projects on a daily basis, such as the development of new applications. Project Resource Management is a process designed to use human and tangible assets, materials, and equipment efficiently and effectively. Since 2017, project resource management has focused not only on human resources, but also on the equipment, materials, and supplies. Read on for steps you can take to improve resource management on your projects!

2018 91

Project Management Process: The Basics

Clarizen

While it is a safe bet that Mr. Deming was not specifically or exclusively referring to the overall project management process, his wise advice – or if you wish, his stark warning – certainly applies. Project Management Process Groups. Project Management Process Flow.

2021 90

New PM: The What?, Why?, and How? of Project Charters

Leading Answers

Anyone new to the profession of project management needs to learn how to create a project charter. Small projects will likely have their three- to eight-page charter written in a day or two by the project manager. It may reference a separate business case or return on investment analysis. Being a project manager writing a charter, it’s easy to get caught up in the apparent importance of your project. Agile Project Management Estimating Planning Risk Management

2019 78

6 Practical Ways to Actually Improve Your Cost Management

Project Risk Coach

PMP Exam Series - Cost Management Think about it for a minute – what have you done in the last six months to improve your cost management? Consider John, a savvy project manager, who was asked to manage a project to replace a dated network system. When John asked the project sponsor how the $100,000 was estimated, but he never got a clear answer. John reported the revised estimate of $120,000 with a range of accuracy of -5 percent to +10 percent.

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