Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

There is a current rash of suggestions on how to improve the performance of software projects. Figure 1 - Planned Estimates versus Actual Performance from [1]. What reducible uncertainties and the resulting risks were Not handled? USAF Cost Risk Uncertainty Handbook.

6 Tools and Techniques for Controlling Risks

Project Risk Coach

Changes in project risks are inevitable. As a project progresses, the probability and impact of current risks change, new risks emerge, and residual risks may increase or decrease. Susan, on the other hand, facilitated an early risk identification workshop.

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Risk management structure.

Risk 48

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. Increasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers?

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

No matter the project domain or the technical development method, project success is dependent on knowing what Done looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker. These measures are stated in units, meaningful to the buyer.

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

We can't talk about estimates or estimate, without also talking about the precision and accuracy of the estimate (the noun) after we have performed the estimate (the verb). . The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. .

Definition of Done

Herding Cats

These Measures have Little meaning to the Decision Makers. Do those capabilities meet the Measures of Performance that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions?

SCRUM 51

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. IT Risk Management.

Performance-Based Project Management®

Herding Cats

Performance–Based Project Management ® integrates five critical program management process areas with – Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Measures. Done” is always defined in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

I need an estimate because… I need to measure productivity. Although I understand measuring productivity could work well for repeatable activities, it's hard to believe it works well for abstract and, ultimately, non-repeatable tasks like software development. IT Risk Management.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric.

2014 43

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . Measuring the effectiveness of these resources is needed to take corrective actions to assure we have enough to finish the project on time.

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete ? ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Risk can be the potential consequence of a specific outcome that affects the system's ability to meet cost, schedule, and/or technical objectives. IT Risk Management.

Risk 35

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal.

Principles, Processes, and Practices of Project Success

Herding Cats

What does Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What impediments will be encountered along the way to Done and what work must be performed to handle these impediments? What are the units of measures of progress to plan for each deliverable?

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 42

Project Start-Up: The Plan for a Plan

Project Health Check

Du ring the Project Start-up and planning phase, projects will execute detailed planning processes to produce a Performance Measurement Baseline of Cost/Schedule/Scope and an associated Project Management Plan.

Cancelling Projects: The Project Isn't Being Done Right

Project Health Check

A classic way to consider project performance is via the triple constraint of scope/cost/time, often with quality thrown in the mix. In part 1 of this article series, we accepted that Projects sometimes need to be cancelled.

2017 184

Project Status Reporting – 6 Key Considerations

Project Health Check

The entire purpose of the Start-up Phase of a Project is to produce a comprehensive Plan for the Project; consisting of an integrated Performance Measurement Baseline (Time, Cost, Scope) and an associated Project Management Plan to monitor and control it.

2017 204

Acting Like an Adult in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Both these drivers of risk will impact the probability of success of projects. 1] "Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision Making," Wilfredo Torres-Pomales, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, NASA/TM-2015-218777.

2016 73

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2005 45

The Tyranny of the Urgent - and how to manage it

Project Health Check

But robust planning in general will set up the project for success; things like engaged stakeholders, managed risks and a realistic Performance Measurement Baseline will reduce the likelihood of issues appearing in the first place.

2017 181

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project.

Does your organization truly support project management?

Kiron Bondale

Organizational project management support can be either a blocker in lower maturity companies or an accelerator to project performance in higher maturity ones. Objectives and performance measures for these staff should include a healthy balance between operational and project success metrics.

2016 186

Wilo's Law and Mature Communications Processes

Herding Cats

Any successful technical communication needs to have: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. Technical Performance Measures. Key Performance Parameters. Without these measures, there will always be someone who will interpret what you think you communicated in the wrong way. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Management Planning Principles Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2005 39

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2005 36

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. IT Risk Management.

From Strategy To Execution and Delivery

Herding Cats

What are the units of measure of Value ? For these strategies to work, we need to define the Measures of Effective, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters for each of the outcomes that produce Value in exchange for the Cost and Time to produce that Outcome. IT Risk Management. There always talk about Focus on Value. But that does that mean? What does it Cost to deliver that Value ?

Next Generation Project Management Software

Girl's Guide to PM

In parallel, organisations demand greater project collaboration capabilities to deal with more challenging projects and improved portfolio analytics to better manage portfolio risk but cannot find an all-in-one tool to satisfy all their needs. Digitalization and Collaboration.

Communications Management: PMP Study Guide (PMBOK 6th Edition)

ExamsPM

Performance reporting. Includes collecting and distributing project performance information. Project communications components include: Performance reports, Deliverables status, Schedule progress. Risk Management – PMP Study Guide.

Misquotes of Deming

Herding Cats

It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth. Technical Performance Measures. IT Risk Management. It's common to misquote famous quotes. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote.

Without a Root Cause Analysis, No Suggested Fix Can Be Effective

Herding Cats

Without determining which root cause is the source of the unfavorable performance of the projects shown in the first chart, no suggestion for corrections can be made. . Herding Cats: Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making. IT Risk Management.

Fallacy of the Week

Herding Cats

Technical outcomes and their performance - what did we get for our money? Have sufficient Contingent Budget and Management Reserve to cover the cost variances from the naturally occurring cost behaviors, event-based impacts on cost, or cover things that go wrong with the Risk Cost coverage. Have sufficient Technical Performance Measures margin to cover the required performance measure of the Capabilities. IT Risk Management.

Value and the Needed Units of Measure to Make Decisions

Herding Cats

Without units of measure of Value beyond time and money, there can be not basis of comparison between one value based choice and another. In the Systems Engineering world where we work, there are four critical units of measure for all we done. They identify technical risk.

2016 54

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

There are several partitions of this information that are common in building the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). Since all projects operate in the presence of uncertainty, with the resulting risk - estimates are needed to make decisions that impact the future.

The Problems with Schedules

Herding Cats

Unrealistic performance expectations missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. Both these cause risk to cost, schedule, and technical outcomes.

2016 55

Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

For software, this can be value produced (assuming we have a unit of measure for that value in the for of effectiveness, performance, key performance parameters, or technical performance measures ). For your Honeywell or Nest controller on the wall, that sample rate is measured in seconds. It can be the cost, schedule, and technical performance measures of the software project.