Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

There is a current rash of suggestions on how to improve the performance of software projects. Figure 1 - Planned Estimates versus Actual Performance from [1]. What reducible uncertainties and the resulting risks were Not handled? USAF Cost Risk Uncertainty Handbook.

6 Tools and Techniques for Controlling Risks

Project Risk Coach

Changes in project risks are inevitable. As a project progresses, the probability and impact of current risks change, new risks emerge, and residual risks may increase or decrease. Susan, on the other hand, facilitated an early risk identification workshop.

Is There an Underlying Theory of Software Project Management?

Herding Cats

Management Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Principles Project Management Requirements Risk Scheduling Technical Performance Measures Theory

Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Risk management structure.

Risk 48

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. Increasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

AHP is based on the principle that all measurements are relative. Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another. Mathematically, the value equals performance over cost plus time.

2010 47

Connecting "What" with "How" - and the Failure to Understand the Principles of Systems Engineering and Systems Management

Herding Cats

Progress and Value are measured with the same in Earned Value Management. In Earned Value Management paradigm, progress is always measured as physical percent complete. The Measures of effectiveness. The Measures of Performance are. Key Performance Parameters.

Increasing the Probability of Program Success

Herding Cats

Our topic is Increasing the Probability of Program Success Thorugh Continuous Risk Management. . Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. If you are not managing risk on your project, what are you managing? Risk-Adjusted Plans. Unrealistic Performance Expectations.

Definition of Done

Herding Cats

These Measures have Little meaning to the Decision Makers. Do those capabilities meet the Measures of Performance that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions?

SCRUM 49

How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

We can't talk about estimates or estimate, without also talking about the precision and accuracy of the estimate (the noun) after we have performed the estimate (the verb). . The best starting point for determining the NEEDED precision and accuracy is to determine the Value at Risk. .

Value First, Requires Margin and Contingency

Herding Cats

In both cases, these create a risk to the success of the project. These risks - aleatory and epistemic - must be handled in some way if they are to not have an undesirable impact on the outcome of the project. IT Risk Management.

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers?

Performance-Based Project Management®

Herding Cats

Performance–Based Project Management ® integrates five critical program management process areas with – Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Measures. Done” is always defined in units of measure meaningful to the decision maker.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. IT Risk Management.

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

We're writing two chapters in an upcoming Project Management Book, with a working title, The Gower Handbook of Project Performance for Agile, Waterfall and Everything in Between , edited by Mark Phillips.

2012 37

Principles, Processes, and Practices of Project Success

Herding Cats

What does Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What impediments will be encountered along the way to Done and what work must be performed to handle these impediments? What are the units of measures of progress to plan for each deliverable?

INVEST, Scrum and Enterprise IT

Herding Cats

Risk interaction within systems and subsystems, between functional and physical elements, can also be modeled with DSM. DSM models interacting risks in a graphical representation produce numerical simulations of the risk and impacts on the probability of program success.

SCRUM 40

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric.

2014 42

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

I need an estimate because… I need to measure productivity. Although I understand measuring productivity could work well for repeatable activities, it's hard to believe it works well for abstract and, ultimately, non-repeatable tasks like software development. IT Risk Management.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Without these measures, Done will usually mean . Without these measures, Done will usually mean we ran out of time and money. . Measuring the effectiveness of these resources is needed to take corrective actions to assure we have enough to finish the project on time.

INVEST, Scrum and Enterprise IT

Herding Cats

Risk interaction within systems and subsystems, between functional and physical elements, can also be modeled with DSM. DSM models interacting risks in a graphical representation produce numerical simulations of the risk and impacts on the probability of program success.

SCRUM 36

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete ? ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Risk can be the potential consequence of a specific outcome that affects the system's ability to meet cost, schedule, and/or technical objectives. IT Risk Management.

Risk 35

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. Risk management requires active reduction of risk. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal.

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. What dos Done look like in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers? What are the measures of physical percent complete needed to inform the decision makers of progress to plan in order to take corrective or preventive actions to stay on plan? 2] "The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking," M.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 42

Project Start-Up: The Plan for a Plan

Project Health Check

Du ring the Project Start-up and planning phase, projects will execute detailed planning processes to produce a Performance Measurement Baseline of Cost/Schedule/Scope and an associated Project Management Plan.

3 Questions That Must Be Asked at Every Project Management Meeting

Herding Cats

In the ConOps are measures of Effectiveness for the components of the project that implement the Capabilities . The only answer to that is a measure of Physical Percent Complete (P%C). These measures are supported by Quantifiable Backup Data.

Cancelling Projects: The Project Isn't Being Done Right

Project Health Check

A classic way to consider project performance is via the triple constraint of scope/cost/time, often with quality thrown in the mix. In part 1 of this article series, we accepted that Projects sometimes need to be cancelled.

2017 222

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

First, we must recognize that without a clear and concise description of done, the only measures of progress are the passage of time, consumption of resources, and production of technical features. How are you going to measure progress toward “done” in units.

2018 129

Helping functional managers through an agile transformation

Kiron Bondale

What are they measured on and what are they measuring? As Tony Robbins would say, “ Where focus goes, energy flows “ If we haven’t updated performance measures for functional managers and their staff, it will be much harder to encourage them to change.

Agile 203

Don't Be Fooled

Herding Cats

Hyndman - in our program planning and controls domain ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is a powerful tool for forecasting future project behaviors based on past performance.

Project Status Reporting – 6 Key Considerations

Project Health Check

The entire purpose of the Start-up Phase of a Project is to produce a comprehensive Plan for the Project; consisting of an integrated Performance Measurement Baseline (Time, Cost, Scope) and an associated Project Management Plan to monitor and control it.

2017 216

Acting Like an Adult in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Both these drivers of risk will impact the probability of success of projects. 1] "Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision Making," Wilfredo Torres-Pomales, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, NASA/TM-2015-218777.

2016 72

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 43

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In software development, those managing the project have some understanding the market forces (from their marketing departments), the technology (from their engineering department), and how to manage in the presence of Aleatory and Epistemic risk (the managers running a successful firm).

2007 42

The Tyranny of the Urgent - and how to manage it

Project Health Check

But robust planning in general will set up the project for success; things like engaged stakeholders, managed risks and a realistic Performance Measurement Baseline will reduce the likelihood of issues appearing in the first place.

2017 197

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create risk to the success of the project.

Does your organization truly support project management?

Kiron Bondale

Organizational project management support can be either a blocker in lower maturity companies or an accelerator to project performance in higher maturity ones. Objectives and performance measures for these staff should include a healthy balance between operational and project success metrics.

2016 190

Wilo's Law and Mature Communications Processes

Herding Cats

Any successful technical communication needs to have: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. Technical Performance Measures. Key Performance Parameters. Without these measures, there will always be someone who will interpret what you think you communicated in the wrong way. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Management Planning Principles Project Management Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 38

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Aleatory and Epistemic uncertainties, which create the risk to the success of the project.

2007 36

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. IT Risk Management.