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What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. The management of SISoS is really no different than the management of any other enterprise class software system. Several other government estimating organizations.

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Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

The 2008 mortgage crisis for example (although many did an made lots of money), the government didn't. Software Development execution and modeling is Microeconomics not Macro. The author of quote read a Taleb book on Black Swans and assumes those Black Swans are in software development. Software projects are non-ergodic.