INDUSTRY INSIGHTS YOUR PEERS ARE READING
Unless you have skin in the game your estimate for the work can't be credible. Let's look at the potential for such an approach in light of the credibility of an estimate. No one getting paid to estimate likes to present bad news. NoEstimates Estimating MORE
Here's my three point estimate paradox: We all know we must estimate with three points (numbers). so we do it, reluctantly None of us actually want to work with (do arithmetic with) the three points we estimate. In a word, three point estimates suck -- not convenient, thus often put aside even if estimated -- and most of all: who among us can do arithmetic with three point estimates? MORE
Tools and resources for cost and schedule estimating, when you here estimates are hard, we're bad at estimating, estimates are a waste, estimates are misused All those statements are fallacies. iceaaonline.com International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. MORE
Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Reasons to Estimate and Measure MORE
I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing. MORE
Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating. MORE
We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate MORE
What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Estimates. MORE
Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package. MORE
In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. Want To Learn How To Estimate? MORE
He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Herding Cats: Decisions Without Estimates? MORE
Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Indpenednet cost estimate to compare different estimating methods. MORE
The post When the Business Dev team try to do their own estimating appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life MORE
There are dozens of quotes from this book floating about, but here's one worth writing down: "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no. business analysis estimate QuotationsFred Brooks, Jr.'s s "The Mythical Man-month" is still required reading, even if written decades ago. And, as these things go, it has a lot of humor, but also a lot of wit. MORE
You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder. MORE
Despite the complexities involved, it’s essential to do the very best with your project estimates. Here are our 3 tips for creating accurate project estimates. Industry MORE
The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal. MORE
There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts — education, experience, and skill are needed. No credible decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the cost, schedule, and technical performance of that decision. How and when to re-estimate. MORE
Estimating successfully is all about getting the right amount of funding to enable you to successfully deliver a project. The post How To Estimate Projects: The Complete Guide To Project Budget & Cost Estimation appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. But creating a project budget that works – delivering worthwhile value for a client at a cost that’s still going to make a respectable profit for the agency is a tricky balance, so how do you do it right? MORE
Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. MORE
There's a never-ending opportunity to learn how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty. When you hear that estimates are a waste (we'd rather be coding), estimates are fiction, we're bad at estimating, and the plethora of other excuses for not learning how to estimate, ask if that person has done the minimal homework to learn how to estimate needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty found on all software development projects. . MORE
We can't estimate things we've never done before - this is simply not true. If you truley haven't done the work before, you're probabiliy not the right person to be estimating for those wanting to pay you. . Estimates are guesses, because we don't know that the future is - this is a fundamental misunderstanding (either with intent or omission) on how estimates are made. We've never done this before, so how can we possibly estimate how long it will take? MORE
Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes. MORE
Let's talk about the challenges of schedule estimates and three estimating techniques that can help us do a better job with our estimates. Lastly, we'll look at how to respond to future requests for estimates. Challenges With Schedule Estimates. MORE
The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. MORE
One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development. MORE
Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains. . NoEstimates Estimating MORE
There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Here's an example of the probability distribution of a cost estimate for a project. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics MORE
Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. Be an Adult, estimate the impact of the risk on the probability of success. MORE
The post Sustainable Estimating appeared first on Delivering a better world, one project at a time. The only certainty is that nothing is certain. Pliny the Elder, Roman scholar, 23-79 CE Our culture encodes a strong bias either to neglect or ignore variation. We tend to focus instead on measures of central tendency, and as a result we make some terrible mistakes, often with considerable practical import. Stephen Jay Gould, naturalist, […]. MORE
We can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision on our probability of success. Any criticism of the NO Estimates statement is met with being blocked from the discussion. The introduction to the #NoEstimates paradigm started with . MORE
The post Challenges with Using PERT for Estimating appeared first on Delivering a better world, one project at a time. This post was modified from one I developed several years ago for the Mercure AACE 2013 program I took, called W5_PM_PERT-Challenges. MORE
Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estimate first from Harold van Heeringen. NoEstimates Estimating Governance MORE
The post The brief moment when you think you’ve just produced a perfect estimate appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life MORE
I started thinking about how common it is for people to not be able to provide good estimates. It was ironic, but part of the work with my client that week was explaining the technique of relative estimates using t-shirt sizes and story points. The team I was working with was new to agile and used to the old way of doing absolute estimates, which as we all know are not as accurate because of things like student syndrome or Parkinson's Law. MORE
There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge. MORE
Mike Cohn on estimating (from his email blasts): "Because I've written a book on estimating, people seem to think I estimate everything on my product backlog. I ask a team to estimate a product backlog item only when having the estimate will lead to actionably different behavior. So, for example, I might ask a team for an estimate on a user story so that I can decide if I want. agile estimate MORE
Quick Reference on Three Point Estimate I have written a series of articles on Three Point Estimate and related concepts. I have explained the basic concept of Three Point Estimate in my first article. The post Three Point Estimate Formulas appeared first on PM-by-PM. MORE
Planning Poker is a great freemium agile estimation digital card game that enables a collaborative approach for consensus-driven estimating to guide sprint planning. The post Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. Play around. General Tools MORE
A statistical model for estimating isn’t normally something I’d put in the ‘make my job easy’ box, but I might just have found one that works. What if you want an estimate that is, say, 75% reliable? PERT can’t give you those kinds of estimates. How reliable is this estimate?”. MORE
Improve buy-in and support for your project budgets Do you ever feel like the Lone Ranger when trying to improve cost estimates? Many project managers are left to their own devices when estimating projects. So, how can we improve our cost estimates? MORE
What is Project Estimation? Estimating is a vital part of the project planning phase and involves estimating the project costs , resources or duration. Estimating a project can be a challenging task no matter what the size or budget of the project is. Why do you Estimate? MORE
s "The Mythical Man-month" "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers" Bookmark this on Delicious. estimateToday's quote: Here's a quotation that is a favorite of mine drawn from Fred Brooks, Jr.'s MORE
Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete. MORE
Estimate Related Topics Zen Project Management
MAY 22, 2017
I started thinking about how common it is for people to not be able to provide good estimates. It was ironic, but part of the work with my client that week was explaining the technique of relative estimates using t-shirt sizes and story points. The team I was working with was new to agile and used to the old way of doing absolute estimates, which as we all know are not as accurate because of things like student syndrome or Parkinson's Law.
Musings on Project Management
AUGUST 14, 2017
We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate
Musings on Project Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2018
Here's my three point estimate paradox: We all know we must estimate with three points (numbers). so we do it, reluctantly None of us actually want to work with (do arithmetic with) the three points we estimate. In a word, three point estimates suck -- not convenient, thus often put aside even if estimated -- and most of all: who among us can do arithmetic with three point estimates?
Musings on Project Management
JANUARY 29, 2016
Mike Cohn on estimating (from his email blasts): "Because I've written a book on estimating, people seem to think I estimate everything on my product backlog. I ask a team to estimate a product backlog item only when having the estimate will lead to actionably different behavior. So, for example, I might ask a team for an estimate on a user story so that I can decide if I want. agile estimate
Project Risk Coach
JUNE 11, 2018
Let's talk about the challenges of schedule estimates and three estimating techniques that can help us do a better job with our estimates. Lastly, we'll look at how to respond to future requests for estimates. Challenges With Schedule Estimates.
Green Project Management
JANUARY 15, 2018
The post Sustainable Estimating appeared first on Delivering a better world, one project at a time. The only certainty is that nothing is certain. Pliny the Elder, Roman scholar, 23-79 CE Our culture encodes a strong bias either to neglect or ignore variation. We tend to focus instead on measures of central tendency, and as a result we make some terrible mistakes, often with considerable practical import. Stephen Jay Gould, naturalist, […].
Girl's Guide to PM
OCTOBER 10, 2016
A statistical model for estimating isn’t normally something I’d put in the ‘make my job easy’ box, but I might just have found one that works. What if you want an estimate that is, say, 75% reliable? PERT can’t give you those kinds of estimates. How reliable is this estimate?”.
Musings on Project Management
FEBRUARY 1, 2016
s "The Mythical Man-month" "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers" Bookmark this on Delicious. estimateToday's quote: Here's a quotation that is a favorite of mine drawn from Fred Brooks, Jr.'s
Musings on Project Management
AUGUST 9, 2016
There are dozens of quotes from this book floating about, but here's one worth writing down: "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no. business analysis estimate QuotationsFred Brooks, Jr.'s s "The Mythical Man-month" is still required reading, even if written decades ago. And, as these things go, it has a lot of humor, but also a lot of wit.
Online PM Courses
JUNE 3, 2018
There are two reasons why Project Estimation is a big deal for project managers. And second, poor estimates are often a primary reason for a project cost or schedule over-run. What is Project Estimation? Why is Project Estimation so hard? The Estimation Knife Edge.
Kiron Bondale
JULY 3, 2016
You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.
Project Risk Coach
JANUARY 16, 2017
Improve buy-in and support for your project budgets Do you ever feel like the Lone Ranger when trying to improve cost estimates? Many project managers are left to their own devices when estimating projects. So, how can we improve our cost estimates?
Green Project Management
JANUARY 15, 2018
The post Challenges with Using PERT for Estimating appeared first on Delivering a better world, one project at a time. This post was modified from one I developed several years ago for the Mercure AACE 2013 program I took, called W5_PM_PERT-Challenges.
Kiron Bondale
FEBRUARY 18, 2018
Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package.
PM by PM
NOVEMBER 18, 2015
Quick Reference on Three Point Estimate I have written a series of articles on Three Point Estimate and related concepts. I have explained the basic concept of Three Point Estimate in my first article. The post Three Point Estimate Formulas appeared first on PM-by-PM.
Herding Cats
OCTOBER 5, 2018
There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts — education, experience, and skill are needed. No credible decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the cost, schedule, and technical performance of that decision. How and when to re-estimate.
Techno-PM
JULY 24, 2018
What is Project Estimation? Estimating is a vital part of the project planning phase and involves estimating the project costs , resources or duration. Estimating a project can be a challenging task no matter what the size or budget of the project is. Why do you Estimate?
Herding Cats
SEPTEMBER 28, 2016
There's a never-ending opportunity to learn how to estimate in the presence of uncertainty. When you hear that estimates are a waste (we'd rather be coding), estimates are fiction, we're bad at estimating, and the plethora of other excuses for not learning how to estimate, ask if that person has done the minimal homework to learn how to estimate needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty found on all software development projects. .
Herding Cats
NOVEMBER 16, 2017
Unless you have skin in the game your estimate for the work can't be credible. Let's look at the potential for such an approach in light of the credibility of an estimate. No one getting paid to estimate likes to present bad news. NoEstimates Estimating
Herding Cats
NOVEMBER 27, 2016
Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.
Herding Cats
JULY 17, 2017
I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.
Hydra
AUGUST 9, 2017
Despite the complexities involved, it’s essential to do the very best with your project estimates. Here are our 3 tips for creating accurate project estimates. Industry
Herding Cats
JULY 14, 2017
Tools and resources for cost and schedule estimating, when you here estimates are hard, we're bad at estimating, estimates are a waste, estimates are misused All those statements are fallacies. iceaaonline.com International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association.
The Digital Project Manager
MARCH 30, 2017
Planning Poker is a great freemium agile estimation digital card game that enables a collaborative approach for consensus-driven estimating to guide sprint planning. The post Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. Play around. General Tools
Herding Cats
MAY 26, 2016
Here's a straightforward approach to estimating on agile projects. This is an example of the estimating profession found on many domains. . NoEstimates Estimating
Herding Cats
OCTOBER 11, 2018
We can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision on our probability of success. Any criticism of the NO Estimates statement is met with being blocked from the discussion. The introduction to the #NoEstimates paradigm started with .
Herding Cats
JUNE 18, 2017
Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. Be an Adult, estimate the impact of the risk on the probability of success.
Herding Cats
APRIL 29, 2017
What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Estimates.
Herding Cats
MARCH 20, 2018
Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Project, Products, and Processes , Richard D. Stutzke is a starting point for estimating software projects. I recommend it for anyone starting out in the estimating business all the way to seasoned veterans. Reasons to Estimate and Measure
Herding Cats
NOVEMBER 3, 2016
Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.
The Digital Project Manager
AUGUST 4, 2017
The post The brief moment when you think you’ve just produced a perfect estimate appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life
Herding Cats
DECEMBER 25, 2016
Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Indpenednet cost estimate to compare different estimating methods.
Herding Cats
DECEMBER 30, 2017
One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.
The Digital Project Manager
SEPTEMBER 29, 2017
The post When the Business Dev team try to do their own estimating appeared first on The Digital Project Manager. The PM life
Herding Cats
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.
Herding Cats
OCTOBER 15, 2016
The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal.
Herding Cats
JULY 21, 2016
Avoid software project horror stories - check the reality value of the estimate first from Harold van Heeringen. NoEstimates Estimating Governance
Herding Cats
NOVEMBER 22, 2017
Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.
Herding Cats
DECEMBER 16, 2017
The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.
Herding Cats
MARCH 23, 2017
In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. Want To Learn How To Estimate?
Herding Cats
MAY 11, 2018
There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Here's an example of the probability distribution of a cost estimate for a project. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics
Herding Cats
JUNE 20, 2016
We can't estimate things we've never done before - this is simply not true. If you truley haven't done the work before, you're probabiliy not the right person to be estimating for those wanting to pay you. . Estimates are guesses, because we don't know that the future is - this is a fundamental misunderstanding (either with intent or omission) on how estimates are made. We've never done this before, so how can we possibly estimate how long it will take?
Herding Cats
JULY 20, 2017
He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. Herding Cats: Decisions Without Estimates?
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