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How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . Start here.

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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. There is a probability of an event. First, let's establish a principle.

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Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. A final Thought . 9, January 2011. [6]

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Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture.

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The Fallacy of Wild Numbers

Herding Cats

DeMacro made this post, which has been picked up by the agile community to mean estimating is a waste. . The natural variances of work productivity, staff turnover, delays and disruptions, and other event-based and naturally occurring variances has a high chance of wiping out or greatly reducing my $100,000 return.

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Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Optimism bias - a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. A final Thought . 9, January 2011. [6]

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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to assess risks, their impacts, and handling strategies for software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.