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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. Turns out in the real world there is no such project. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value?

2003 46
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The Problems with Schedules

Herding Cats

Here's an article, recently referenced by a #NoEstimates twitter post. The headline is deceiving, the article DOES NOT suggest we don't need deadline, but that deadlines without credible assessment of their credibility are the source of many problems on large program. The Core Problem with Project Success. Just the estimate.

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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Information about key project cost, (technical) performance, and schedule attributes is often uncertain or unknown until late in the program. requires making estimates) ? Effective Risk Management 2 nd Edition , Edmund Conrow, AIAA, 2003. 105, 2003. “A Estimation of Long?Term reducible and irreducible ?

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on software development projects. Information about key project cost, (technical) performance and schedule attributes is often uncertain or unknown until late in the program. requires making estimates) ? 105, 2003. “A Estimation of Long?Term

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Cost Modeling Agile Software Development,” Maarit Laanti and Petri Kettunen, International Transactions on Systems and Applications, Volume 1 Number 2, pp. Performance Evaluation of non?Markovian

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DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

We were one of the first users of eXtreme Programming, long before Scrum was around and presented that early work in 2003, " Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment, Measuring velocity with Earned Value." . maybe a read of the resources of Estimating Agile Software Development may help. Almost impossible?

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. Google will find these when there is no URL provided.