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Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Traditional project management approaches, several of which are based on a strong belief in the cone of uncertainty, advocate stronger project control and greater planning. In that case, the competitor will win nearly every time, and the prize for “good” project management might be losing market share. If not, that's another issue.

2007 42
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Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

We're writing two chapters in an upcoming Project Management Book, with a working title, The Gower Handbook of Project Performance for Agile, Waterfall and Everything in Between , edited by Mark Phillips. One chapter on the Principles of Risk Management and the second chapter on the Practices of Risk Management.

2012 29
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Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty is a framing assumption used to model the needed reduction in some parameter of interest in domains ranging from software development to hurricane forecasting. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Uncertainty creates Risk. This extended post covers.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

Barry Boehm's work in “Software Engineering Economics”. The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Prentice-Hall, 1981. Here's a simple definition of the Cone of Uncertainty: .

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

Barry Boehm's work in “Software Engineering Economics”. The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is done by active risk management, through probabalistic decision-making.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

Barry Boehm's work in “Software Engineering Economics”. The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Prentice-Hall, 1981. Here's a simple definition of the Cone of Uncertainty: .

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Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's say you're the project or program manager of a large complex system. We cannot escape these two uncertainties - reducible and irreducible - and must learn how to manage in the presence of these uncertainties. Is each of these measures being met for the planned cost at the planned time? . Abstracted from [3].

2010 28