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Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. Then there is some analysis.

2007 42
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Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure. The units of measures of Cost and Time are straightforward. The Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance. The Technical Performance Measures.

2005 37
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Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Closed Loop Stochastic Adaptive control in the presence of Evolving Uncertainty. Active reduction requires we have a desired reduction goal, perform the work, and measure progress toward the rduction goal. Measure of Effectiveness.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty. There can be cost and schedule performance measures as well.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).

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Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty.

2010 28