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Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? The program management processes should seek to reduce uncertainty in the variable of the project. Steve McConnell.

2012 48
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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . This quote demonstrates a lack of understanding of making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and the processes and events that create uncertainty. There is naturally occurring variability from uncontrolled processes.

2003 46
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Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

Specific actions to reduce the Episuncertaintiesnaties and Margin to handle the Aleatory uncertainies are part of any good project management process. . Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007.

2012 29
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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to assess risks, their impacts, and handling strategies for software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification,” Marvin Carr, Suresh Konda, Ira Monarch, Carlo Ulrich, and Clay Walker, Technical Report, CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, June 1993. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

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Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The planned uncertainty not only needs to decrease over time passing, but this reduction diminishes any impacts of risk on the decision-making processes. Seems there is still some confusion (intentional or accidental) about the Cone of Uncertainty and its purpose and its use in software development. This letter states.

2007 34
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Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The uncertainty is always there, it doesn't go away with specific actions in specific domains, or with the use of any tools, processes, or practices. In many cases, once the estimates have been made (at proposal or authorization to proceed), recalibrate and reduction the uncertainty of the initial estimates is not always performed.

2010 28