Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management. NoEstimates Risk

Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Risk Management requires making estimates of many things. Just like risk management, estimating is how adults manage projects. No risk management no adult managemnt. NoEstimates Risk

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No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Risk Management is how adults manage projects - Tim Lister.

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. This process is the basis of all risk management. IT Risk Management.

How To Be An Estimating Superhero

Girl's Guide to PM

A statistical model for estimating isn’t normally something I’d put in the ‘make my job easy’ box, but I might just have found one that works. What if you want an estimate that is, say, 75% reliable? PERT can’t give you those kinds of estimates. How reliable is this estimate?”.

Playing Whack-A-Mole With Risk

Tyner Blain

My assertion in that workshop was that assumptions and hypotheses, practically speaking, are risks. The risk is that those beliefs are wrong. It represents an implicit risk. Remember – hypotheses and assumptions are risks. Risks of being wrong (and not knowing it).

What is Risk Management?

Herding Cats

Risk management is about making informed decisions by consciously assessing what can go wrong, as well as the likelihood and severity of the impact when that possibility comes true. The heart of Risk Management is making informed decisions in the presence of the uncertainties that create risk.

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Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Here's how we manage risk on our software intensive system of systems using Agile. . Risk management requires making estimating of the reducible and irreducible uncertanties that create risk. If you're not estimating these uncertanties and their impacts, you're not managing as an adult. IT Risk Management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. Estimating is Risk Management.

Cost Estimating Assessment Criteria

Herding Cats

Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Risk and uncertainty analysis that qualifies risks and impacts.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. All risk comes from Uncertainty - reducible uncertainty and irreducible uncertainty. [1] 1] No uncertainty No Risk. . If you're not managing risks You're not managing the project.

Evaluating Project Schedules Utilizing Quantitative Risk Analysis

Project Risk Coach

Often times, risks occur and project managers lack adequate schedule reserves. If a project is estimated at 120 days, the project manager may add a 10% pad, an additional 12 days. The project manager estimates the project duration to be 132 days. Analyzing the Highest Risks.

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Information Technology Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister (IBM). It can't be stated too often - either manage risk, or risk will manage you. Projects without risk management are late and over budget before they start. Reducible uncertainties can have specific actions to reduce to risks that result from the uncertainties. Irreducible uncertainties can have no specific actions, but must have margin to protect from the resulting risk. IT Risk Management.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. This includes planning for and execution the project by phase and activity level cost estimates.

Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Estimatin

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

These uncertainties create the risk to the success of all projects. Without managing in the presence of risk, the probability of project success is significantly reduced, most likely reduced to zero. Management in the presence of risk has the following steps: [1].

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The Naive Notion that Agile Mitigates Risk

Herding Cats

The post Top 5 Ways Agile Mitigates Risk is one of those posts that's not wrong in what it says at the detail level - more or less, but is not right in principle. Agile Mitigates Risk - is not correct. Agile provides rapid identification of risk. What is risk management?

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

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Governance and Estimating

Herding Cats

All businesses that operate inside governance frameworks, which address: Risk, Conformance and Compliance - COSO, CoBit, ISO 27001, ISO 38500. make use of estimates in their decision support processes.

Why We Need Estimates

Herding Cats

The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal. IT Risk Management. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

All project work is probabilistic (actually statistical and probabilistic), with reducible and irreducible uncertainties that create reducible and irreducible risks to the success of the project. Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure.

Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. NoEstimates Books Estimating Risk

Agile Estimating Methods and Impact on Project Development Performance Index

Herding Cats

The presentation " Quantifying the Impact of Agile Practices ," Larry MacCherone at the RallyOn 2013 Conference, presents some results on estimating impacts. Teams doing Full Scrum have 250% better Quality than teams doing No Estimating. How to Estimate Software Development.

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What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Common Ground for a Conversation about Estimating

Herding Cats

Neil Killick posted a good question, what's the common ground for talking about estimates. All estimates have two attributes - accuracy and precision. The values of these two attributes are what those needing the estimates are after. With the knowledge of the two values of these two attributes the decision makers can assess the "value" of the estimate. That request comes from those asking for the estimate. But that dysfunction is not "caused" by the estimate.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Before we start, let's look with the notion of estimation.

Estimating on Non-Trivial Software Projects

Herding Cats

A nice conversation on twitter about estimates on software brought up the topic of estimates as commitments. The #NoEstimates advocates see estimates as making commitments. Yes, commitments are made when we estimate. I have an 80% confidence (an estimate) I can deliver what you need on or before September 15 (an estimate), at or below $15,000.oo (an estimate) with a 15% error band (an estimate). . Estimates are not needed.

How Does Probabilistic Estimation Reduce Project Uncertainty?

LiquidPlanner

When you replace fixed-date deterministic scheduling with probabilistic estimations, you’ve got a whole new ball game. Probabilistic estimation is one of the reasons LiquidPlanner is the most realistic project management tool in the world.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk.

Fred P. Brooks on Estimates

Musings on Project Management

There are dozens of quotes from this book floating about, but here's one worth writing down: "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no. business analysis estimate QuotationsFred Brooks, Jr.'s s "The Mythical Man-month" is still required reading, even if written decades ago. And, as these things go, it has a lot of humor, but also a lot of wit.

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Let’s add a few tools to your risk identification tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Risk identification is our first step towards converting unknown-unknowns to known-unknowns. It is neither possible nor advisable to identify all risks which could impact your project’s objectives – like any other project planning process, too much is as bad as too little.

Everyone estimates!

Musings on Project Management

We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Capabilities Earned Value Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Principles Requirements Risk Root Cause Analysis Technical Performance Measures

Behavioural Economics, Estimating, and Decision Making in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Both uncertainties create the risk to the success of any project endeavor. Reduction or Mitigation of the risks generated by these uncertainties is the role of risk management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. IT Risk Management.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Estimating from the master

Musings on Project Management

s "The Mythical Man-month" "It is very difficult to make a vigorous, plausible, and job-risking defense of an estimate that is derived by no quantitative method, supported by little data, and certified chiefly by the hunches of the managers" Bookmark this on Delicious. estimateToday's quote: Here's a quotation that is a favorite of mine drawn from Fred Brooks, Jr.'s

How To Better Your Quantitative Risk Analysis

Project Risk Coach

How can we better your quantitative risk analysis? What is Quantitative Risk Analysis? The Importance of Quantitative Risk Analysis. When to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis. Three-point estimate. The quantitative risk analysis is not always required.

Can You Make a Decision in Presence of Uncertainty Without Estimating?

Herding Cats

They started with “Estimates are a waste, stop doing them.” Those advocates also started with the notion that estimates are a waste for the developers. The size of the “value at risk” is also the starting point for estimates. If the project is small (de minimis) meaning if we over run significantly no one cares, then estimating is likely a waste as well. So the fact we work on larger projects does not remove the principle of “value at risk.”