Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. One of the most rigorous theorems of economics [1] proves that the existing means of production yields greater economic performance only through greater uncertainty that is, through greater risk. Without these estimates, there is no risk management. NoEstimates Risk

No more initial estimates? NOOOOOOOOOOO!

Kiron Bondale

You are assigned to manage a project and before you or your team have had an opportunity to start to chip away at the looming mountain of uncertainty, you get put on the spot to provide a cost or schedule estimate by your project sponsor or some other stakeholder.

Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Risk Management requires making estimates of many things. Just like risk management, estimating is how adults manage projects. No risk management no adult managemnt. NoEstimates Risk

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Uncertainty creates Risk, Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty Requires Estimating

Herding Cats

According to ISO 31000, a risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives and an effect is a positive or negative deviation from what is expected. Every step has an element of risk that needs to be managed and every outcome is uncertainty. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete. Let's define what an estimate is. IT Risk Management.

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How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Estimates. IT Risk Management.

How To Be An Estimating Superhero

Girl's Guide to PM

A statistical model for estimating isn’t normally something I’d put in the ‘make my job easy’ box, but I might just have found one that works. What if you want an estimate that is, say, 75% reliable? PERT can’t give you those kinds of estimates. How reliable is this estimate?”.

Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

The Project Manager’s Guide to Simple Risk Analysis

Online PM Courses

Risk analysis is both easy and hard at the same time. No project manager can get by without knowing how to analyze risk on your project. Risk is important, because it is baked into the nature of projects. Risk analysis is one part of the wider Risk Management process.

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What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Everyone estimates!

Musings on Project Management

We all make estimates; and we all make estimates all the time. When I make the 20 mile trip each Tuesday to a client site, I estimate adjustments to a baseline based on weather and road construction and if I know about an accident. Really, no one sets out to do anything meaningful without some estimate in mind re time, or cost, or risk; usually we can also notionally estimate the scope. So, agile estimate

Decisions Without Estimates?

Herding Cats

Can you make a decision without an estimate? There are NO means of making a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision. Don't assume, Estimate. This process is the basis of all risk management. IT Risk Management.

What Is Risk?

Herding Cats

Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. In the context of risk management, uncertainty exists whenever the knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete ? ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016 and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Risk can be the potential consequence of a specific outcome that affects the system's ability to meet cost, schedule, and/or technical objectives. IT Risk Management.

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RBS is one more technique for your estimation tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Project managers need to be comfortable with different estimation techniques. Foundational project management courses will teach you about analogous, bottom-up, parametric and three-point estimating. Estimate the size or effort of that story or work package.

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Cost Estimating Assessment Criteria

Herding Cats

Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately. Risk and uncertainty analysis that qualifies risks and impacts.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. This includes planning for and execution the project by phase and activity level cost estimates.

A risk management ode to project managers!

Kiron Bondale

Father’s Day might be a holiday which is much newer than the project management profession itself, but let’s not miss the opportunity to celebrate the many ways in which project managers help their projects succeed through effective risk management.

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How to Evaluate Risk Velocity

Project Risk Coach

Life is filled with risks. Some risks occur slowly. Let’s look at how to evaluate risk velocity and why it matters. What is Risk Velocity? Risk velocity is the time to impact. Think of velocity as an estimate of the time frame within which a risk may occur.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. IT Risk Management.

Playing Whack-A-Mole With Risk

Tyner Blain

My assertion in that workshop was that assumptions and hypotheses, practically speaking, are risks. The risk is that those beliefs are wrong. It represents an implicit risk. Remember – hypotheses and assumptions are risks. Risks of being wrong (and not knowing it).

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Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk

Herding Cats

Yesterday's Post What Is Risk? Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes in two kinds for all projects, for everything actually. Epistemic uncertainty and the risk it creates can be reduced with handling processes. Aleatory uncertainty and the risk it creates can NOT be reduced. Only margin can be provided to protect the project's cost, schedule, and technical performance from this risk.

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Your Guide to Accurately Estimating Projects

LiquidPlanner

Estimation is an invaluable tool for anticipating and managing project uncertainties. Accurate project estimates help identify cost and schedule requirements with relative precision, and reduce the risk of running out of time, resources, and budget during a project.

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Why We Need Estimates

Herding Cats

The ability to generate reliable cost and schedule estimates is a critical success factor necessary to support business projects. Without this ability, business value is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls—all recurring problems that projects assessments too often reveal. IT Risk Management. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

When to Estimate and When Estimates aren't Needed

Herding Cats

Paul Boos has a post about estimating and makes a case for the Principles of when NOT to estimate. This struck a cord around a bigger topic - the inversion of estimating. When should we NOT estimate? What business decision making conditions could be in place where we don't have to estimate the outcomes of our decision in the presence of uncertainty? Then on to the original conjecture for No Estimates from Paul's post. Not principles for NOT estimating.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. Uncertainty, creates risk.

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Why Johnny Still Cannot Estimate

Herding Cats

He doesn't know how - He doesn't understand how estimates fit into the process of business and managerial finance of product or service development. He doesn't understand why estimates are needed - He doesn't understand the impact on the business for not knowing how long, how much, and what will be produced for the time and money. Coding work is much more fun than making estimates, documenting the requirements, writing tests. IT Risk Management. NoEstimates Estimatin

Let’s add a few tools to your risk identification tool belt!

Kiron Bondale

Risk identification is our first step towards converting unknown-unknowns to known-unknowns. It is neither possible nor advisable to identify all risks which could impact your project’s objectives – like any other project planning process, too much is as bad as too little.

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Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat, and Opportunity

Herding Cats

I received a book over the Holidays - Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making , Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward. This is a seminal work on risk management in the presence of uncertainty. NoEstimates Books Estimating Risk

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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Uncertainty creates risk. Risk Management is how Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis. Uncertanty creates Risk.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Here's how we manage risk on our software intensive system of systems using Agile. . Risk management requires making estimating of the reducible and irreducible uncertanties that create risk. If you're not estimating these uncertanties and their impacts, you're not managing as an adult. IT Risk Management. Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects. Estimating is Risk Management.

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Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. Want To Learn How To Estimate?

Agile Estimating Methods and Impact on Project Development Performance Index

Herding Cats

The presentation " Quantifying the Impact of Agile Practices ," Larry MacCherone at the RallyOn 2013 Conference, presents some results on estimating impacts. Teams doing Full Scrum have 250% better Quality than teams doing No Estimating. How to Estimate Software Development.

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

These uncertainties create the risk to the success of all projects. Without managing in the presence of risk, the probability of project success is significantly reduced, most likely reduced to zero. Management in the presence of risk has the following steps: [1].

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Your Guide to Accurate Project Estimate Projects

LiquidPlanner

Estimation is an invaluable tool for anticipating and managing project uncertainties. Accurate project estimates help identify cost and schedule requirements with relative precision, and reduce the risk of running out of time, resources, and budget during a project.

2018 52

Fixed Price Removes Risk — Fallacy of the Week

Herding Cats

Firm-fixed-price contracts are depicted as existing on the extreme left of the continuum of risk. As we progress through the various fixed-price flavors and into cost-type contracts, the assertion is that risk shifts from the vendor to the supplier. . This assertion appears reasonable, but this belief makes the assumption that there is goodness that results in shifting risk to the supplier. All Risk is Created by Uncertainty . Someone has to pay to handle that risk.

2018 46

Aleatory Uncertainty Creates Irreducible Risk

Herding Cats

Yesterday's Post Epistemic Uncertainty Creates Reducible Risk and What Is Risk? Risk is not there to be mitigated, it's there to be eliminated. Risk is the result of uncertainty, which comes in two kinds for all projects, for everything actually. Epistemic uncertainty and the risk it creates can be reduced with handling processes. The objective of identifying and managing aleatory uncertainty to be preparing to handle the impacts when risk is realized.

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Information Technology Risk Management

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister (IBM). It can't be stated too often - either manage risk, or risk will manage you. Projects without risk management are late and over budget before they start. Reducible uncertainties can have specific actions to reduce to risks that result from the uncertainties. Irreducible uncertainties can have no specific actions, but must have margin to protect from the resulting risk. IT Risk Management.

Evaluating Project Schedules Utilizing Quantitative Risk Analysis

Project Risk Coach

Often times, risks occur and project managers lack adequate schedule reserves. If a project is estimated at 120 days, the project manager may add a 10% pad, an additional 12 days. The project manager estimates the project duration to be 132 days. Analyzing the Highest Risks.

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Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

Managing Cost, Schedule, & Technical Performance Risk Is The Basis Of Good Project Management. Risk management is essential to the success of any significant project. These risks can be mitigated with a good risk management process. Risk management structure.

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