Remove 2007 Remove Budget Remove Estimate
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Overcoming bias in project management

Rebel’s Guide to PM

Anchoring occurs when a project manager adjusts an estimate closer to a number she previously heard or saw. ” Even if the project manager disbelieves the two-week estimate, she would be unlikely to stick to her two-month plan. Belief bias in project management. Finally, a project manager should heed the belief bias.

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Managing Risk from Every Level of Your Organization

LiquidPlanner

This notion of contingency analysis shows that when planning or budgeting, we must account for foreseeable risk and factor in the optimal route required with the minimum number of possible detours. Any forecast used to establish baseline budgets will be imperfect, whether for reserve fuel supplies or project contingencies.

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Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. That is an Immutable Principle of good project management.

2007 34
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Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. Then there is some analysis.

2007 42
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Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty.

2010 28
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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Making these decisions in the presence Uncertainty ? reducible and irreducible ?

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Making these decisions in the presence Uncertainty ? reducible and irreducible ?