Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. December 2010.

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. Johnson, STC 2010.

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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Governance. Applying Deliverables Based Planning ® To Increase Our Probability of Success , PMI Fort Worth, Chapter Meeting, 15 July 2010. Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS) , Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016. CPM-500-B/C/F: Integrating Systems Engineering with Earned Value Management, Lesson 3 CPM-500F: Technical Performance Measures , PMI CPM, June 2010. Basis of Estimate Process. Governance.

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Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Governance (#Governance). Six Business System Rule - defines the assessment of the integrated business systems for Federal procurement and their integrity in providing information to the Government contracting office. . Managing Government Grant Projects at Arizona Public Service - APS management process for Department of Energy grant for algae CO2 capture project. The starting point is understanding what processes make up the discipline of estimating.

2015 37

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? The beginning of all business critical software development projects is the point in time when performing organizations are least certain about the project, yet it is also the time when top management expects to be delivered project estimates that are very precise.

2012 41

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The notion (as suggested in the quote) of shifting from accurate (what ever that means) ways of estimating to reliability shipping be a date is not physically possible since the irreducible and reducible uncertainties are always present. All estimates have precision and accuracy. April, 2010.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2017 30

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 28

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. ISO 31000:2009, ISO 17666:2016, and ISO 11231:2010 Risk is Uncertainty that Matters. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk.

2007 32

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. It is not the Estimates that are non-ergodic.

Microsoft’s PPM Cloud Strategy Failed: What Now?

MPUG

One thing Edward Snowden has taught the world is this: Never trust the US Government or any other government for that matter! This is true for Canadian Federal Government departments, government agencies, large Canadian companies, and even medium-sized Canadian companies.

2020 91

Principle Based Management

Herding Cats

Most business departments have a set of standard operating procedures or guidelines that govern how we should respond to standard and even some not-so-standard occurrences we face throughout our workday. It starts with the organization and the governance practices and framework for that organization. If the organization doesn’t buy into this governance framework, it won’t work. To NOT Estimate is to willfully Ignore a fundamental principle of business management.

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

The project scope was changed by the owner, or the management, or you had unfortunate estimates of the time, and resources that would be required to complete particular steps in the schedule. John Owen: First, let’s talk about the estimates that we’re using in our schedule.

Vendor Showcase Recap: Making Light Work of Schedule Risk Analysis – By Barbecana

MPUG

The project scope was changed by the owner, or the management, or you had unfortunate estimates of the time, and resources that would be required to complete particular steps in the schedule. John Owen: First, let’s talk about the estimates that we’re using in our schedule.

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Estimating of Value at Risk: Extreme Value and Robust Approaches,” Grazyna Trzpiot and Justyna Majewska, Operations Research Decisions , No. 1, 2010. 29 April 2010.

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How to Use nTask for Waterfall Project Management – A Practical Guide for First Timers

nTask

The United States government settled on the Waterfall Model as the model’s advantages perfectly fulfilled their requirements. The federal government insisted on engineering rigor and a superior quality product while maintaining great control over the final product. Cost estimation. Easy to estimate. We did an extensive analysis of various factors that influence waterfall project management.

2019 85

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 255, April 2010. 24, 2010. “A Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Estimating of Value at Risk: Extreme Value and Robust Approaches,” Grazyna Trzpiot and Justyna Majewska, Operations Research Decisions , No. 1, 2010. 29 April 2010.

2012 33

Invested in Sustainability as a PM? You should be!

EarthPM

Many executives embrace the conventional wisdom that mainstream investors care little about an organization’s performance on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics. The reduction drove down production costs and helped sustain 20% annual growth between 2010 and 2014. estimates it earns $3 for every $1 invested in environmental initiatives.

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015

Wrike

Government – Federal. Government – City/State/Local. Between 2010 and 2020, 15.7 Business services (2 million jobs) and Manufacturing (630,000 jobs) supported the greatest number of project management roles in 2010. Business services and healthcare are expected to lead job growth between 2010 and 2020. [11]. Estimated Project-Oriented Job Openings 2010-2020: . Inadequate cost estimates – 29%. Inaccurate task time estimate – 27%.

2015 49