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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Deciding how much precision and accuracy is needed for a credible estimate is critical to the success of that decision.

2003 46
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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to assess risks, their impacts, and handling strategies for software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification,” Marvin Carr, Suresh Konda, Ira Monarch, Carlo Ulrich, and Clay Walker, Technical Report, CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, June 1993. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

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Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. But is can be ANY variance for the program, including confidence in the estimates of future performance - cost, schedule, or technical performance. This usually results in a project's actual costs far outrunning the optimistic estimates and creating a large overrun.

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Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. Remember Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister.

2007 34
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Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

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If we look at the discipline of software engineering, we see that the microeconomics branch of economics deals more with the types of decisions we need to make as software engineers or managers. Software engineering economics." IEEE Transactions of Software Engineering, 1 (1984): 4-21.

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Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Cost Modeling Agile Software Development,” Maarit Laanti and Petri Kettunen, International Transactions on Systems and Applications, Volume 1 Number 2, pp. Performance Evaluation of non?Markovian