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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

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Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. No Estimates?

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Webinar Recap: Project Performance Measurement – Part 2: What to Measure and How to Report

MPUG

Well, because according to PMI, the Project Management Institute, 45% of projects experience scope expansion, 32% failed on their budgeting, and 16% were deemed complete failures. Having spent half my life in the commercial space and half in the government space, the questions are always there. This was from last week. Is it Fletcher?

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Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Or plan on being late, over budget, and reduced probability of technical success, before you start. This is called Software Engineering Economics. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis. All Value is Cost and Time dependent.

Cadence 28
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Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

Herding Cats

For software development, those scarce resources are people, time, and money. Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. Showing up late and over budget does not produce the needed Value.

Process 45
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Misquotes of Deming

Herding Cats

This is used in support of the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty. Who's Budget is it Anyway? Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Software Engineering is a Verb. The #NoEstimates advocates love to use a Deming quote.

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Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture.