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Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. In our domain of engineered systems, there is a broad range of problems, complex issues, approaches to solving problems. In all cases, we start our work with.

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Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. illities are a waste.

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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

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The Economics of Decision Making on Software Projects

Herding Cats

The classic paper “ Software Engineering Economics,” Barry Boehm, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol SE-10(1), 1984, pp. One model that is many times misunderstood by the agile community is the Cone of Uncertainty surrounding estimates as well as the technical and operational aspects of the project.

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Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. No Estimates?

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Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. That is an Immutable Principle of good project management.

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Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Or plan on being late, over budget, and reduced probability of technical success, before you start. This is called Software Engineering Economics. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis. All Value is Cost and Time dependent.

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