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Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? As more details get developed, the Cone converges to the actual value. Steve McConnell.

2012 48
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Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to assess risks, their impacts, and handling strategies for software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. “A IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. 3, March 2002. 11 November 2002.

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A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to manage the risk encountered on software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. Let's start with a critical understanding of the purpose of managing risk on software development projects. requires making estimates) ? 3, March 2002.

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Real Options and Decision Making for ICT Projects

Herding Cats

Estimation locks down choices early through upfront t decision making, #NoEstimates preserves options. This is the same paradigm of Agile software development where responding to change over following the plan is part of the original manifesto. Aligning Software Investment Decisions with the Markets ," Hakan Erdogmus. "

2008 32
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A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS) , Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016. Integrating Agile Software Development with Earned Value Management , College of Performance Management, IPM Workshop, 2015. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate.

2003 54
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Black Swans

Herding Cats

One of the books used by a vocal No Estimates advocate is Black Swans by Nassim Taleb. This advocate continually confuses Macroeconomics of financial markets and sovereign finance with Microeconomics of software development. The No Estimates advocates have a similar set of behaviors.). Pich, Christoph H.

2002 34
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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Deciding how much precision and accuracy is needed for a credible estimate is critical to the success of that decision.

2003 46