Remove Estimate Remove Performance Measurement Remove Process Remove Software Engineering
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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

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Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable.

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Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty is a framing assumption used to model the needed reduction in some parameter of interest in domains ranging from software development to hurricane forecasting. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

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Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. Because of that, we don't separate the thinking processes into a dual-system. This means putting a formal process in place for making that decision. System One - automatic.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

Specific actions to reduce the Episuncertaintiesnaties and Margin to handle the Aleatory uncertainies are part of any good project management process. . Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007.

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Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." The "bad management" is itself a symptom of untrained, inexperienced, unskilled decision making processes in the presence of uncertainty. . Let's look at what an estimate is.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

Barry Boehm's work in “Software Engineering Economics”. The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Prentice-Hall, 1981. This is due to many reasons.