article thumbnail

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , 57 (4), pp.

article thumbnail

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Cognitive bias - a mistake in reasoning, evaluating, remembering, or other cognitive processes, often occurring as a result of holding onto one's preferences and beliefs regardless of contrary information. Because of that, we don't separate the thinking processes into a dual-system. A process based on tangible evidentiary materials.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty is a framing assumption used to model the needed reduction in some parameter of interest in domains ranging from software development to hurricane forecasting. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure.

article thumbnail

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

Cognitive bias - a mistake in reasoning, evaluating, remembering, or other cognitive processes, often occurring as a result of holding onto one's preferences and beliefs regardless of contrary information. Because of that, we don't separate the thinking processes into a dual-system. A process based on tangible evidentiary materials.

article thumbnail

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

Specific actions to reduce the Episuncertaintiesnaties and Margin to handle the Aleatory uncertainies are part of any good project management process. . Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007.

2012 29
article thumbnail

Misquotes of Deming

Herding Cats

I spent the week speaking at the College of Performance Management conference where government and industry come together to work on the issues of cost, schedule, and technical performance management process improvement needed to increase the probability of program success. Technical Performance Measures.

article thumbnail

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

Barry Boehm's work in “Software Engineering Economics”. The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). There can be cost and schedule performance measures as well.