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4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

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How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . Start here.

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There is Little New Under the Sun

Herding Cats

It is popular to claim we've never done this before, so how can we possibly estimate the cost and schedule. If it truly hasn't been done before, then the software project is likely to be an inventing new physics project. In that world, we still made estimates of the cost to design, build, and operate the experiment.

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Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation , Steve McConnell , Construx, 2002. Steve McConnell.

2012 48
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Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. Our perception of this world - the data and information we receive about these behaviors. This assumption can be from the lack of data - an ontological uncertainty.

2003 46
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Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. There is NO data needed to use the CoU. Past data is NOT needed to show the CoU is Value.

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Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

Drawing Unsupported Conclusions from Incomplete and Inconclusive Data, it is not only natural but also laudable, to seek evidence that confirms something that we hold to be true. I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." Let's look at what an estimate is.