How to Talk About Estimates

Herding Cats

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. Estimates.

Planning before Scheduling

Herding Cats

Planning is an unnatural process, it’s much more fun to get on with it. The real benefit of not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by months of worry. ‒ The mechanics of the Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule looks like this.

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Estimates, Forecasts, Projections

Herding Cats

Estimates. An Estimate is a value inferred for a population of values based on data collected from a sample of data from that population. The estimate can also be produced parametrically or through a simulation (Monte Carlo is common, but Method of Moments is another we use). . Estimates can be about the past, present, or future. We can estimate the number of clams in the Pleistocene era that are in the shale formations near our house. Estimate to Complete.

Cost Estimating Assessment Criteria

Herding Cats

Here are the guidelines for a credible cost estimate (GAO-16-620). Details calculations performed and estimating methodology used. Estimate should lack bias; be neither overly conservative nor optimist. Regular updates cost estimate to reflect significant changes. Documented and explained variances between planned and actual costs. Estimate based on historical record of comparable p[rograms. Estimating techniques used appropriately.

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure.

Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. To be informed how to estimate in this broad range of domains, problems, and impacts - education, exp[erience, and skill are needed. Gow to avoid common estimating mistakes.

Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

In order to make risk-informed decisions, we must estimate the outcomes and the impacts of those outcomes on future activities (cost, schedule, and technical performance of products and services). Without these estimates, there is no risk management. Without these estimates, there can be no risk management. Be an adult, make estimates of the future outcomes of your risk informed decisions. . [1] Capabilities Based Planning. Risk is everywhere on projects.

3 Team Techniques to Improve Cost Estimates

Project Risk Coach

Improve buy-in and support for your project budgets Do you ever feel like the Lone Ranger when trying to improve cost estimates? Many project managers are left to their own devices when estimating projects. So, how can we improve our cost estimates?

Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate.

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Progressive elaboration is the only sane approach to planning!

Kiron Bondale

Imagine that you are planning a multi-day road trip across the country to a town which you’ve never visited before. What are the odds that you will plan your trip down to the hour? The allure of detailed plans is compelling because they reinforce the illusion of certainty.

3 Tips for Optimising Your Project Plan

Arras People

Today’s post is a guest article from Deltek, they’re part of Arras People’s project management software directory and always have good insights to share when it comes to the technical aspects of project management, in this case project planning.

Have You Left Anything Out of Your Project Plan?

Project Risk Coach

The Project Plan Checklist Have you left anything out of your project plan? Check out this project plan checklist to help you identify the baselines and plans that will be most helpful to each of your projects. I like to keep my project plans as simple as possible.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

Let's look at what estimates are needed to answer each of the Five questions: Principle. Estimate Needed To Answer The Question. What's our plan to reach DONE as needed for the customer to receive the expected Value from our work? Anyone can construct a Plan.

Quote of the Day - Planning is Everything, Plans are Nothing

Herding Cats

Plans are nothing, Planning is Everything- General Dwight D. That was "No Battle Plan Survives Contact With the Enemy" - General Helmuth von Moltke. . The quote in full context reads: I tell this story to illustrate the truth of the statement I heard long ago in the Army: Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. But all Plans and Forecasts must have the ability to adapt to the emerging situation . Of course the people who built the plan!

Project Planning- A complete tutorial

Binfire

Meticulous project planning is something that anybody who wants to succeed in managing projects should strive for, but few really achieve it. If you make a list and in it you write 10 items that you plan to do in a day or a week, it is a good start but it is not good planning yet.

Project Management Basics: 6 Steps to a Foolproof Project Plan

Wrike

When it comes to planning your very first project , you may not know exactly where to begin. Follow these six steps to create a foolproof project plan and lead your team with confidence. Next, estimate due dates for each deliverable in your project plan.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). . What About the Plan to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty . Plans are Strategies.

Planning is King

Herding Cats

There has been lots of buzz in the project management space lately about the benefits of planning. Planning is one of the Five Immutable Principles of project success. Planning tells us, in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers, what Done looks like. No Plan?

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects

The Digital Project Manager

Planning Poker is a great freemium agile estimation digital card game that enables a collaborative approach for consensus-driven estimating to guide sprint planning. The post Planning Poker – build accurate estimates for sprints on agile projects appeared first on The Digital Project Manager.

20 Things For Your Project Management Plan [With 3 Free Templates]

Girl's Guide to PM

Your project management plan is more than just a schedule of work. Although I am guilty of using ‘plan’ and ‘Gantt chart’ interchangeably. So what does go in the project management plan? Below you’ll find 20 things that make up a comprehensive project management plan.

How to Estimate Any Software Problem

Herding Cats

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . The Myths of No Estimates and the busting of them is one purpose of this blog post. Before we start, let's look with the notion of estimation.

Deliver Fast or Deliver as Planned (Update)

Herding Cats

Deliver as planned. The Plan for the delivery of value is shown in the Product Roadmap and implemented in the Cadence Release Plan, or sometimes in the Capabilities Release plan. Fast is a term replaced by Planned. The Plan is based on a Capabilities Based Plan.

How Does Probabilistic Estimation Reduce Project Uncertainty?

LiquidPlanner

When you replace fixed-date deterministic scheduling with probabilistic estimations, you’ve got a whole new ball game. For one, uncertainty is built into your plan, which is a necessary reality. The post How Does Probabilistic Estimation Reduce Project Uncertainty?

Take Control of Your Project Plan Calendar

Wrike

Getting everything done on time and under budget calls for strategy and forethought, and that’s why you need to maintain a clear project plan calendar. While some leaders may opt for an Excel project plan template, that means they miss out on some major opportunities.

Tax Planning for PM Contractors in 2016

Arras People

Getting ahead and planning your tax in 2016 is vital, especially in an environment that is constantly evolving. Those who receive income from dividends are advised to renew and income plans with a tax planning specialist. The government estimate that this will lead to 95% of people not paying tax on interest gained from these savings. Contact Associate Services today about the services that can help to ensure your tax planning is as efficient as possible in 2016.

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GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Applied to Agile

Herding Cats

The GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide has 12 steps. Product Roadmap and Release Plan describe the needed capabilities to be delivered by the project. This is connected to the Financial Plan for earning back the investment of the development.

Forecasting versus Estimating - are they Different or are they the Same

Herding Cats

One of the escape clauses of #Noestimates is to re-label Forecasting as NOT Estimating , It is forecasting, based on empirical data. This is in comparison for estimating purpose for a theoretical model that produces data, parametric from empirical or theoretical models that produce data.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

20 Things For Your Project Management Plan [With 3 Free Templates]

Girl's Guide to PM

Your project management plan is more than just a schedule of work. Although I am guilty of using ‘plan’ and ‘Gantt chart’ interchangeably. So what does go in the project management plan? Below you’ll find 20 things that make up a comprehensive project management plan.

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Are Your Project Plans Helping You Execute Successfully?

LiquidPlanner

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”. Project plans exist for a reason. And while your odds of success improve if you actually use them, plans are all too often consigned to the rubbish bin during the execution stage of a project.

10 Guidelines for Estimating Project Effort – Guest Post by Susanne Madsen

Celoxis

best practices Blog capacity planning PMO PPM Project Management Resource Management celoxis Guest Blog Online project management software project estimation project management best practices project management software sussane madsen web based project management toolMany projects start off on the wrong foot because the effort involved in delivering them has been underestimated.

Planning a Budget for a Proposal in 5 Easy Steps (+ Example)

Girl's Guide to PM

A proposal budget instead aims to convince the evaluator that reads your proposal that you have a solid grasp of your plan and that you are worthy of being trusted with funding. Not only that: you need to estimate who will do the work. Plan your person-days accordingly.

Estimating is an Everyday Life and Everyday Projects

Herding Cats

A recent twitter post started out with I predict my train will depart from platform 12 in 10 minutes: degree of predictability correlates with length of time I then asked and what is the evidence on which you base this estimated time of departure? I got back I didn't estimate departure, there is a timetable there, but Trains someone's run late & platform sometimes changes. But in fact - mathematical fact - there was an estimate made. NoEstimates Estimating

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success

Herding Cats

Plans are strategies for success. For the project to be successful, we need a Plan. Estimating how much is the starting point. No risk management plan with mitigations, the risks are still there, and we're not managing other people's money like adults. No Estimating?

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Risk Management in Five Easy Pieces, with Apologies to Jack

Herding Cats

For risks that are beyond the vision of the project team a properly implemented risk management process can also rapidly quantify the risks impact and provide sound plans for mitigating its effect. Hoping that the project will proceed as planned is naïve at best and poor management at worse.

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How 5 PM Experts Create a Fail-Safe Project Management Plan

Wrike

Poor planning can doom your project before work even begins. A thorough project plan can prevent scope creep, overblown budgets, and missed goals. But actually sitting down and planning a project can be an overwhelming task. Essential Components of a Project Management Plan .

Unravelling PI Planning

Digite

There is a quote introducing PI Planning content on the Scaled Agile Framework website. But if there is one common denominator between all SAFe implementations, then it has to be the PI Planning. So what is PI Planning? And what does the ‘PI’ in PI Planning mean?

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Business strategy is based on the delivery of value at the planned time for that value for the planned cost of that value. Or, what’s you estimate of the features we can deliver before the trade show?

Agile Project Management Methods

Herding Cats

How estimates are or are not needed. Agile Books Capabilities Decision Making Deliverables Based Planning(r) Economics ERP Estimating Governance Management Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Principles Project Management Requirements Risk Systems Theory

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