Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

For any closed loop control system ‒ let’s assume we want to manage our project with such a system ‒ has a signal representing the current state of the system. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. Managing software development projects is a Closed Loop control system.

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

This took me back since Scrum is derived from an empirical closed loop control system developed in the USAF by Col. And of course: Assessing the outcomes of the feedforward and feedback loops is the basis of all Closed Loop control system. See link below on Closed Loop Control).

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.

Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe

Herding Cats

There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Closed-loop control systems actively control the system based on state feedback. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

and the connections between each Process are made to form a Closed Loop control systems needed to manage any project. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Increasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. Let's look at what an estimate is.

2018 57

Small Batch Sizes are NOT Risk Management

Herding Cats

This approach is a closed loop control system, where the estimates work (in your choice of ordinal units) is the starting point. As the work progresses the TO DO value goes from the original estimate to the new estimate to complete. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

Risk 54

The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

Let's look at the credibility of each of the statements below: Estimating can be an endemic problem in organisations these days because estimating is fundamentally guessing, yet these guesses are taken as promises / firm commitments (when that is not how they were intended). If you're guessing, you're not estimating. Estimates are informed by past data or a model. The uncertainties of the estimates have accruracy and precision. Very close to coin flipping. .

2018 28

A Reminder of the Pseudo-Science of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

That is, ways to make decisions with "No Estimates". How would you assess a decision in the presence of uncertainty without making an estimate of the outcome of that decision. Defies the principles of closed loop control systems in the presence of stochastic non-stationary systems. .

2016 66

Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

Herding Cats

Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions.

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 66

Modeling the Future Using Empirical Data from the Past

Herding Cats

This, of course, would mean that climate models, compressible fluid flows, stock markets, automatic landing systems, fracture mechanics, any closed loop process with stationary or non-stationary stochastic behaviors would NOT be possible. This is a quote from Twitter today that says.

2018 43

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. Why did the estimates NOT get better?

2010 63

The Myth of "Discover by Doing"

Herding Cats

There is a popular Agile and No Estimates phrase. To close the loop this emergent work needs to have a target to steer toward. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating ManagementIt is by doing the work we discover the work we must do. .

2016 53

Definition of Done

Herding Cats

Do those capabilities meet the Measures of Effectiveness needed to accomplish the mission of the system in operational units of success closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions?

SCRUM 51

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Estimating

2016 46

Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires a Closed Loop Control process. No Estimates?

Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute. Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right.

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Closed Loop Stochastic Adaptive control in the presence of Evolving Uncertainty. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. Closed Loop Control, has a goal, an action, a measurement, and a corrective action.

How to Actually Develop a Project Management Plan

Project Risk Coach

Work Breakdown Structure Dictionary – provide the detailed information about the deliverables, activities, cost estimates, and scheduling information for each item in the WBS. Featuring baselines, subsidiary plans, and other ancillary plans Do you know the 5Ps?

Project Management Processes & Phases

ProjectManager.com

In project management there are five phases: initiating, planning, executing, controlling and closing. Cost: Estimate the costs involved across the project and formulate a budget. Close. The last phase of the project is closing it out.

Beautiful Example of the Disconnect Between Those who Pay and Those Who Spend

Herding Cats

Perhaps Mr. Elliott could provide answers to these questions to our clients, when he suggests that estimates are worthless. . No Estimates Needs to Come In Contact With Those Providing the Money. Closed Loop Control. NoEstimates Business Estimating

Software Economics

Herding Cats

To make those economic decisions, we need to estimate both business value and development cost. Why Do We Need Estimates? It's not the developers that need the estimates - they take the money and turn that money into value. They should estimate if the needed value can be produced by that money. But if the developers decided they don';t need to estimate, then they'll be subject to the whims of management, just like Dilbert. Decision Making Without Estimates?

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2005 45

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

Thus, the work package for preliminary design cannot be “closed” (closure conditions satisfied) until the document and the TPM conditions are met. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value?

2003 57

You Can Unlock the Power of Integration Management

Project Risk Coach

After completing the WBS, she facilitated an exercise to identify significant risks and estimated contingency reserves for her “Known Unknown” risks. Close Project. Closing process group.

2016 307

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Not because of its use for estimating cost, schedule, and technical performance outcomes on projects, but because this simulation started with a casino's need - in Monte Carlo - to have some level of confidence on how much money they needed every night for the roulette wheel. Precision - how small is the variance of the estimate? Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value? So How Do We Come Up with These Estimates? There was a tweet yesterday.

2003 34

Concept of Operations

Herding Cats

How we can't possibly estimate the work since all the work is emergent. Measures of Performance ‒ characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions.

Control, Stability, Short Term, Long Term all needed for Success

Herding Cats

They have to be estimated in the start. Estimate what's right in front of you - the trail is rough, bumpy, rutted, off camber, muddy, thorny, and many times some animal runs across my path - rabbitt, prairie dog, a snake. A quick estimate is needed to decide what to do.

The Trouble with Charts

Herding Cats

The other statistical issue is the chart showing #Noestimates versus other types of estimates. But the sample space of the total population of projects with #Noestmates as their estimating technique is only 3% of the total population. They look pretty close.

SCRUM 44

When projects go wrong and it's the worst possible moment

Susanne Madsen - Developing Project Leaders

Just consider the most important techniques we use as project managers: we define scope, analyse requirements, plan and estimate work, add contingency, manage risks, track changes and check the quality. But two days after its initial opening it was forced to close due to safety reasons.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Supporting artifacts such as the WBS, WBS Dictionary, Basis of Estimates (BOE), and the Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) are available to help define the scope of the work to be performed and especially the entrance and exit criteria for key program Events.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2005 39

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2005 36

Revisiting the Double Pendulum Problem

Herding Cats

Sensitive dependence to initial conditions means that nearby trajectories separate exponentially fast, i.e. two identical systems set up together in the same way such that the initial conditions are arbitrarily close together will have their trajectories rapidly diverge. Close Loop Thinking.

2009 46

The perils of percentage availability…

Kiron Bondale

at least 20% of the month before fiscal year end has been proven to be spent on annual performance review activities) and personal plans such as team vacation calendars to provide confidence about those estimates.

2018 188

How to recruit an outstanding project manager (Part I)

Susanne Madsen - Developing Project Leaders

Instead she works closely with team members and is not afraid of getting her hands dirty.

2018 52