Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

For any closed loop control system ‒ let’s assume we want to manage our project with such a system ‒ has a signal representing the current state of the system. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. Managing software development projects is a Closed Loop control system.

Project Estimation Methods

Planview

The following content is based on the whitepaper, “Bigger Than a Breadbox: 10 Tips for Better Project Estimates, Part 1,” written by Jerry Manas. Guess you could say it’s the GPS of estimating. The GPS of Estimating. Contributor estimates. Leveraging contributor estimates.

2019 62

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

This took me back since Scrum is derived from an empirical closed loop control system developed in the USAF by Col. And of course: Assessing the outcomes of the feedforward and feedback loops is the basis of all Closed Loop control system. See link below on Closed Loop Control).

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.

Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe

Herding Cats

There's a fallacy used by some in the software development business, that estimates are not needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Closed-loop control systems actively control the system based on state feedback. NoEstimates Estimating Mathematics

12 Principles of Agile with and without Estimates

Herding Cats

When we hear that the next big thing in agile is Not Estimating, let's look to see how those 12 Principles can be applied without those estimates? . How estimates help implement these principles. Without estimates what is missing. Without estimating the delivered value to the business for the estimated cost and time to delivery that value, the balance sheet will be wholly uninformed about when the breakeven date for this expenditure.

Increasing the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

and the connections between each Process are made to form a Closed Loop control systems needed to manage any project. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Increasing the Probability of Project Success Simple in Theory, Complex in Practice.

Quote of the Day - Sample Errors

Herding Cats

It is much better to closely look and think about the confounding factors. . NoEstimates Estimating Logical Fallacy MathematicsObservational studies are inherently challenging because of the potential for self-selection bias and confounding factors.

The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

Let's look at the credibility of each of the statements below: Estimating can be an endemic problem in organisations these days because estimating is fundamentally guessing, yet these guesses are taken as promises / firm commitments (when that is not how they were intended).

3 Questions That Must Be Asked at Every Project Management Meeting

Herding Cats

And finally, since all project work operates in the presence of uncertainty, we must make estimates in order to execute the project in a Closed Loop manner. NoEstimates Capabilities Decision Making Estimating Governance IMP/IMS Management Principles Project Management Risk

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 64

A Reminder of the Pseudo-Science of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

That is, ways to make decisions with "No Estimates". How would you assess a decision in the presence of uncertainty without making an estimate of the outcome of that decision. Defies the principles of closed loop control systems in the presence of stochastic non-stationary systems. .

2016 61

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. Let's look at what an estimate is.

2003 51

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. Estimates are neither Ergodic or Non-Ergodic themselves. Estimates are estimates of an ergodic or non-ergodic PROCESS. Let's revisit the quote, Estimates are non-ergodic.

2007 42

Small Batch Sizes are NOT Risk Management

Herding Cats

This approach is a closed loop control system, where the estimates work (in your choice of ordinal units) is the starting point. As the work progresses the TO DO value goes from the original estimate to the new estimate to complete. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

Risk 48

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Estimation is part of project management. . The most important estimates for the project manager are related to time and cost. . Since it is easier to estimate small tasks, these estimates are often calculated and performed as point estimates, for example, a task will take 3 days.

2010 50

Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

Herding Cats

Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions.

The Fallacy of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

Let's look at the credibility of each of the statements below: Estimating can be an endemic problem in organisations these days because estimating is fundamentally guessing, yet these guesses are taken as promises / firm commitments (when that is not how they were intended). If you're guessing, you're not estimating. Estimates are informed by past data or a model. The uncertainties of the estimates have accruracy and precision. Very close to coin flipping. .

The Myth of "Discover by Doing"

Herding Cats

There is a popular Agile and No Estimates phrase. To close the loop this emergent work needs to have a target to steer toward. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating ManagementIt is by doing the work we discover the work we must do. .

2016 53

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Estimating

2016 46

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. Why did the estimates NOT get better?

2010 58

Definition of Done

Herding Cats

Do those capabilities meet the Measures of Effectiveness needed to accomplish the mission of the system in operational units of success closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions?

SCRUM 49

Modeling the Future Using Empirical Data from the Past

Herding Cats

This, of course, would mean that climate models, compressible fluid flows, stock markets, automatic landing systems, fracture mechanics, any closed loop process with stationary or non-stationary stochastic behaviors would NOT be possible. This is a quote from Twitter today that says.

Connecting "What" with "How" - and the Failure to Understand the Principles of Systems Engineering and Systems Management

Herding Cats

Measures of Effectiveness - are operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions. It's been said by an agile voice that.

Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires a Closed Loop Control process. No Estimates?

Beautiful Example of the Disconnect Between Those who Pay and Those Who Spend

Herding Cats

Perhaps Mr. Elliott could provide answers to these questions to our clients, when he suggests that estimates are worthless. . No Estimates Needs to Come In Contact With Those Providing the Money. Closed Loop Control. NoEstimates Business Estimating

Software Economics

Herding Cats

To make those economic decisions, we need to estimate both business value and development cost. Why Do We Need Estimates? It's not the developers that need the estimates - they take the money and turn that money into value. They should estimate if the needed value can be produced by that money. But if the developers decided they don';t need to estimate, then they'll be subject to the whims of management, just like Dilbert. Decision Making Without Estimates?

Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute. Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right.

Control, Stability, Short Term, Long Term all needed for Success

Herding Cats

They have to be estimated in the start. Estimate what's right in front of you - the trail is rough, bumpy, rutted, off camber, muddy, thorny, and many times some animal runs across my path - rabbitt, prairie dog, a snake. A quick estimate is needed to decide what to do.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2007 43

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Closed Loop Stochastic Adaptive control in the presence of Evolving Uncertainty. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. Closed Loop Control, has a goal, an action, a measurement, and a corrective action.

Concept of Operations

Herding Cats

How we can't possibly estimate the work since all the work is emergent. Measures of Performance ‒ characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions.

The Trouble with Charts

Herding Cats

The other statistical issue is the chart showing #Noestimates versus other types of estimates. But the sample space of the total population of projects with #Noestmates as their estimating technique is only 3% of the total population. They look pretty close.

2006 44

You Can Unlock the Power of Integration Management

Project Risk Coach

After completing the WBS, she facilitated an exercise to identify significant risks and estimated contingency reserves for her “Known Unknown” risks. Close Project. Closing process group.

2016 312

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

Thus, the work package for preliminary design cannot be “closed” (closure conditions satisfied) until the document and the TPM conditions are met. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value?

2003 52

Business Forecasting: Why You Need It & How to Do It

ProjectManager.com

This approach is often used when you need to predict unknown values, as it allows you to make calculations based on past averages, where one assumes that the future will closely resemble the past. If only we were able to predict the future, we’d all be rich.

2018 227

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Not because of its use for estimating cost, schedule, and technical performance outcomes on projects, but because this simulation started with a casino's need - in Monte Carlo - to have some level of confidence on how much money they needed every night for the roulette wheel. Precision - how small is the variance of the estimate? Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value? So How Do We Come Up with These Estimates? There was a tweet yesterday.

2003 34