Closed Loop Control and Granularity of the Estimating Process

Herding Cats

For any closed loop control system ‒ let’s assume we want to manage our project with such a system ‒ has a signal representing the current state of the system. To control this process using feedback and corrective actions ‒ in the same way, your closed loop controller for your air conditioner or heater does - a sampling rate is determined based on the rate of change of the underlying processes. Managing software development projects is a Closed Loop control system.

The Origins of Scrum and Empirical Closed Loop Control

Herding Cats

This took me back since Scrum is derived from an empirical closed loop control system developed in the USAF by Col. And of course: Assessing the outcomes of the feedforward and feedback loops is the basis of all Closed Loop control system. See link below on Closed Loop Control).

What is an Estimate? What is Estimating?

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where estimates are made every single week. Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimated Completion Date (ECD) are the life blood of our software intensive system of systems programs. But Estimating is NOT Guessing.

Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating

Herding Cats

One of the 4 summary root causes of project performance failures is Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models. If you have no uncertainty, then estimates provide no value. Herding Cats: Basis of Estimating Software Development.

Five Immutable Principles of Project Success and Estimating

Herding Cats

In order to manage risk - and act as an adult when spending other people's money - you must estimate many aspects of the project. The Five Immutable Principles of Project Success layout the aspects of project success that must be managed using estimates. .

Two Parallel Processes of Project Success - Both Value and Delivery are Needed

Herding Cats

Software engineering economics is a topic that addresses the elements of software project costs estimation and analysis and project benefit-cost ratio analysis. This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates, with accuracy and precision values, are needed to make credible decisions.

2018 72

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. Let's look at what an estimate is.

2018 81

A Reminder of the Pseudo-Science of #NoEstimates

Herding Cats

That is, ways to make decisions with "No Estimates". How would you assess a decision in the presence of uncertainty without making an estimate of the outcome of that decision. Defies the principles of closed loop control systems in the presence of stochastic non-stationary systems. .

2016 94

The #NoEstimates Paradigm and Response

Herding Cats

This is a good starting point for answering the mail on the notion that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impact of those decisions. But his conjecture starts with estimates are a waste , not saying for whom they are a waste for.

2016 94

Modeling the Future Using Empirical Data from the Past

Herding Cats

This, of course, would mean that climate models, compressible fluid flows, stock markets, automatic landing systems, fracture mechanics, any closed loop process with stationary or non-stationary stochastic behaviors would NOT be possible. This is a quote from Twitter today that says.

2018 61

From Mission Capabilities to Done

Herding Cats

These measures are: Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) – are the operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Let's start with a clear and concise description of the problem of successfully managing projects in the presence of uncertainty: Accurate software cost and schedule estimations are essential for non-trivial software projects. Why did the estimates NOT get better?

2010 91

The Myth of "Discover by Doing"

Herding Cats

There is a popular Agile and No Estimates phrase. To close the loop this emergent work needs to have a target to steer toward. NoEstimates Capabilities Estimating ManagementIt is by doing the work we discover the work we must do. .

2016 75

Definition of Done

Herding Cats

Do those capabilities meet the Measures of Effectiveness needed to accomplish the mission of the system in operational units of success closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions?

A Wrap Up of the #NoEstimating Conjecture Analysis to Date

Herding Cats

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. Estimating

2016 65

Economics of Software Development

Herding Cats

This is the foundation for estimates. Estimates with accuracy and precision values needed to make credible decisions. These estimates are critical to both developers and customers. These estimates are used for generating requests for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring, and control. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires a Closed Loop Control process. No Estimates?

Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Closed Loop Stochastic Adaptive control in the presence of Evolving Uncertainty. Management of this reduction work and measurement of the progress is a Close Loop Control System paradigm. Closed Loop Control, has a goal, an action, a measurement, and a corrective action.

Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute. Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Herding Cats

Not because of its use for estimating cost, schedule, and technical performance outcomes on projects, but because this simulation started with a casino's need - in Monte Carlo - to have some level of confidence on how much money they needed every night for the roulette wheel. Precision - how small is the variance of the estimate? Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value? So How Do We Come Up with These Estimates? There was a tweet yesterday.

2018 48

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

Thus, the work package for preliminary design cannot be “closed” (closure conditions satisfied) until the document and the TPM conditions are met. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2018 71

Software Economics

Herding Cats

To make those economic decisions, we need to estimate both business value and development cost. Why Do We Need Estimates? It's not the developers that need the estimates - they take the money and turn that money into value. They should estimate if the needed value can be produced by that money. But if the developers decided they don';t need to estimate, then they'll be subject to the whims of management, just like Dilbert. Decision Making Without Estimates?

Beautiful Example of the Disconnect Between Those who Pay and Those Who Spend

Herding Cats

Perhaps Mr. Elliott could provide answers to these questions to our clients, when he suggests that estimates are worthless. . No Estimates Needs to Come In Contact With Those Providing the Money. Closed Loop Control. NoEstimates Business Estimating

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2005 65

Concept of Operations

Herding Cats

How we can't possibly estimate the work since all the work is emergent. Measures of Performance ‒ characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions.

The Trouble with Charts

Herding Cats

The other statistical issue is the chart showing #Noestimates versus other types of estimates. But the sample space of the total population of projects with #Noestmates as their estimating technique is only 3% of the total population. They look pretty close.

SCRUM 63

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Accuracy - how close is the estimate to the actual value?

2003 82

Control, Stability, Short Term, Long Term all needed for Success

Herding Cats

They have to be estimated in the start. Estimate what's right in front of you - the trail is rough, bumpy, rutted, off camber, muddy, thorny, and many times some animal runs across my path - rabbitt, prairie dog, a snake. A quick estimate is needed to decide what to do.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Supporting artifacts such as the WBS, WBS Dictionary, Basis of Estimates (BOE), and the Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) are available to help define the scope of the work to be performed and especially the entrance and exit criteria for key program Events.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2005 52

Revisiting the Double Pendulum Problem

Herding Cats

Sensitive dependence to initial conditions means that nearby trajectories separate exponentially fast, i.e. two identical systems set up together in the same way such that the initial conditions are arbitrarily close together will have their trajectories rapidly diverge. Close Loop Thinking.

2016 65

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Deux

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimating Probabilistic Outcomes?

Reference Class Forecasting

Herding Cats

Talking with the moving van owner, he started telling stories about estimating the load in pounds. The agent makes the first estimate of the weight of the load, issues a quote for the cost of the move. Sometimes it's very close. But the estimator knows how to adjust for that.

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Far from being close-minded killjoys, most scientists in the “never aliens” camp desperately want to be convinced otherwise.

2018 61

Scrum Master vs Project Manager: What’s the Difference?

Project Bliss

Identify activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. Close the project. The Scrum Master works closely with the team and ensures that they adhere to the ceremonies. Are you considering a career move? .

SCRUM 188

How to Create a Project Assumptions List: Examples and Template Included

Project Bliss

Budget – estimated cost of the project. Budget – estimated cost of the project. Status: Open or closed. As assumptions and dates pass, you can mark those items as closed.

2018 159

The Open Mindedness and Logical Fallacy

Herding Cats

Every once in awhile a reasonably intelligent No Estimates advocate shows up in a Twitter discussion. They often say you should be open-minded and try the concepts of No Estimates first. . A closed minded person would say sasquatch exists, no matter the lack of evidence.

2018 86

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

The identified risk is then submitted as a candidate and either accepted or closed by the program. Typical decisions made during the step are: continue as planned; re-plan (develop a new or updated mitigation plan); change the primary plan to the fallback plan; accept the risk; or close.

Risk 94

Project Manager Roles and Responsibilities: What does a PM Really Do?

Project Bliss

Identifying activities, dependencies, sequencing, and time estimates. You’ll w ork closely with the team and those who’ll be doing the work. Work closely with the customer and stakeholders. Closing the project.

2017 194

Nothing Happens Without A Reason

Herding Cats

Leibniz said it simply nothing happens without a reason which is close to everything happens for a reason. The fallacy of the original statement about estimates being the smell starts with the complete lack of the reason for the smell if in fact there is a smell.